[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Up goes the wedge! Looks like a nice 6z, northern and NW users must be rubbing your hands in glee

Me.. rubbing me hands in Glee... lol.

Minor changes for us in the North as the area of low exits the Uk bring gales or severe gales. Not convinced about the timing of the arrival of the snow on thursday... I think it will be earlier on thursday not later.  

Fully expecting cold weather to bring blizzards and drifting snow to us in the North. 

 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Take my metaphorical hat off to GFS for picking up this Nly blast in the Fl territory.. dropping the idea and then brought it into the frame in a more reasonable timeframe... 

Last time it did this in forcasting a cold run was 2010.

Think next weeks event will be memorable.

 

Enjoy snow lovers countrywide. 

 

 

 

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

I have had a few glasses of wine so now I am brave enough to say whats needs to be said. 

 

 

A winter to remember.... expect the unexpected. 

Nuff said.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Phenomonal runs from all models. Looking at Nlys next week from wednesday onwards for us up in tbe western isles. We do need to be careful of that low pressure around the 8th. The 12z had it superdeep/extreme and given the different in temp between North and South.. I eouldnt be surprised to see severe gales for the UK... where is anyones guess!

 

Nick that superstorm is just a breeze for us hardy folks on the Isle of Lewis. Lol

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

The plot slowly evolves as the GFS brings the potent Nly next week back into the picture. The areas of low pressure in the atlantic are playing havoc with the models in terms of their position and strength due to sharp temperature differences. 

Never a dull moment .  

 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Been watching the models all day. Fascinating watching them evolve.  I even got weather geeky at my work as ai explained what was happening. 

To me ot sounds as though the ECM is overplaying that Euro high and that it keeps seeking the normalised weather state, ie,  atlantic.

 

The ridging on the Greenie High is crucial. I would say that Scotland is a pretty firm bet for snow next week. 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Gfs is sticking to its guns. 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Can someone  please tell me what is meant by shortwave and longwave is met terms?

 

I must say the GFS looks awesome. Very potent Nly. Wonder which model will prove right next week.  Part of me thinks the ECM as the GFS would cause havoc in the NW. 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Oh dear the ECM follows the GFS to the sin bin made  by snow lovers. Interesting that the GFS follows this evolution. I would imagine there will be changes one if which is the that the Northerly incursion may get to the North of Scotland and gets a good dumping of snow on it leading edge. The other is that the nasty low gets really deep and moves fast across the uk dragging much colder air behind it. 

 

Last thought... the Greenie ridging theory is far from being dead in the water. It has a quick/rapid genesis on the runs I have seen. 

I would be surprised to see a Northerly outbreak next week. Still a long way off. 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

I cant buy into that low pressure in the Atlantic resisting the Nly incursion at time +220hrs. on the 18z GFS. I think it s a blip as the models are struggling with the whole evolution past time +144hrs. Lets face it is just classic GFS where it goes along with a pattern, drops it and then comes back with it again in a much more reliable timeframe (like last weeks cold weather).

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Hannah said:

Looking at those charts, I can't see anyway for the Atlantic to get back in on the action. Logically,  would say that the most likely outcome is for the HP to link up NE into Greenland and reload the northerly, thus drawing the LP above Scandi down across western europe. (Rose tinted???)

 

 

Not at all Gavin I think a few of us are thinking the same. 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Forgot to ask, at the end of the Meto weekly forecast, the forecaster suggests even colder next week. Though the UKMO only went out to 120hrs? 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

I think all of the models including the UKMO are pointing to another Nly next week. A much colder Nly too.  That high pressure mid atlantic looks like it is setting up home for early winter and not leaving anytime soon. Together with a willing Greenie High I can see a few Nly s this year. I will go and get my sledge!

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

10 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

I've just seen Gavins 12th Christmas update on you tube and I wish I hadn't. No sign of any winter come 10th December its just constant Autumnal wind and rain right out to the middle of January as we lock a very locked Atlantic pattern

.  

Try not to worry.. its based on the CFS and it appears at the end of the GFS run it just resets back to atlantic mode. Reckon that will change alot in next few weeks. 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

I did find it slightly amusing jumping from the excitement and ramping of the 18z to the doom and gloom of the 0z models in the runs this morning whilst reading posts I missed whilst sleeping. 

Anyway the GFS and ECM still continue with the blocked atlantic pattern with high pressure which is always a good place to start for snow lovers. 

Although away out in lala land that 2nd/3rd northerly (Ive lost count)... is still on the table. Look at the -10 sitting just off the North coast of Scotland.  This may very well become the pattern for the whole winter. 

The AO is forecast to plummet... any sign of the polar vortex forming as we plunge into the first month of winter. Even as it does the chances are it eill be blasted away with a SSW event. 

Still very early days. Whilst the models play around teasing us... my gut instinct says cold. 

Hooefully what I have said makes sense, Im still learning!

 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

What an end to the ECM... deep fast developing low dragging down colder air. Imagine if it waters down that scenario?

Model run after model run showing cold outbreaks. 

 

 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

PS... our croft two days ago.. snow not quite all melted yet and we live on the gulfstream ( supposedly). 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Does anyone know when the netweather winter forecast is due to be released? 

 

From what Ive experienced of this autumn so far... I think winter will be front loaded... mild Jan and then cold again for early spring.

 

One cannot ignore the high pressure? Blocking patterns over the mid atlantic nor the Greenie High.

Nlys defo... easterlies I dont think so. Sustained cold I think yes.

 

Mild wet and windy.. I dont think so. Colder more settled the form horse this winter. 

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards]

Does anyone know when the netweather winter forecast is due to be issued. It went live this time last year. 

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Love that 2nd pic, with the bold crow on the post - nice one!

They wait and hope that the sheep will leave a little of their feed... lol.  The blackface is called Bella... she is always the leader. 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Its the heights over Greenland that are truelly astonishing. Promising lots of Nly outbreaks. One of these is going to create fun and games. 

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards]

Our wintry scene on our croft on Lewis.  Its been a very early start to the winter here with butterly cold NWlys the past week or so. We have had thunder and lightning too as well as graupel, hail and ice. 

I get a feeling it is just a taster of whats to come.  Even the locals cant remember it starting quite as early as this. Its usually Feb before it gets really cold here. 

2010, 79, 81, 95... dare I say it 63.... its well overdue and I suppose conditions are near perfect for a cold un!

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

54 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS goes out to 5th December of which all the December part is in lala land anyway

How can you make that assumption based on that?

Was based on the GFS and I did say if it was to be believed eith a question mark. 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Good agreement in the models for next weekend especially after all of the chopping and changing over the past 48hrs or so.  Looks like that nasty low will drag down much colder weather from north. How far it comes south is anyones guess at this moment. 

I do like the reload on the GFS on the 0z run. I can imagine this one materialising. Interesting to see where it goes.  

Mild December on the cards if te GFS is to be believed. Perhaps just the model returning to its default setting?

Icant wait for the Netweather winter forecast. 

One other question... how many of you are professional meterologists?

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Good morning!

Well GFS does it again... picks up a cold signal  10days out... dramatically drops it for warmish atlantic onslaught... and then brings the colder air back in again in a slightly more reliable timeframe. It is a cool NWly wintry showers for the western isles. BTW we have already had wet snow falling at sea level on thursday morning in Stornoway. So the atlantic isnt that mild!!!