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snowbunting

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    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    I don't post in it in general, skim read it for the ones who know what they're on about and skip a lot of it. It's a shame as there are a hardcore who know a lot but a lot who talk the talk but that's about it.

    FAX charts look interesting, plenty going on with troughs and occlusions so it shouldn't be dry:

    Screenshot_20180114-090720.thumb.jpg.c810019bda6baab5a9f48ae983c1cf93.jpg

    The Euro4 is coming into range for Tuesday soon, should be plenty to start a full scale rampede.

    The Fax does look really good for Scotland. Maybe even Thundersnow by Tuesday. Im happy with this. 

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Personally think they did a few tweeks to the overnight GFS model to account for the Siberian cold and cyclonic conditions in the pacific. And so overcooked the second low pressure coming in end of next week. There was no progression to that low.. it just appeared.  I think they maybe inputted a bit more bias for a cyclonic west coast in US.  The jet is flat/straight as a pancake which is unusual this winter. Even the obligatory  SSW had disapoeared from the 300hrs + 

    Dont buy into the doom and gloom.. not just yet.. we shall have 5days of snow in the Scotland. 

    Winter is here to stay for a while anyway.

    • Like 9

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Most of the ensembles are going for a more Nly track for that storm on Thursday. It is still a long way off, but the storm Caroline was also due centre over North England in this timescale but ended up just north of mainland Scotland.  But it is just one model/ and 1 run so if we see ALL of the GFS runs doing the same tomorrow, anywhere north of Yorkshire will get a lot of snow. I would love to know Tamara's thoughts on this cold spell and for the rest of January.

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

    Some confusion here. If that low tracks further north, it will introduce milder air making the storm a rain event mostly, before and after would be snow mind you. If it’s snow you’re after, you want this storm to track further south by about 300 /400 miles and be a much shallower affair. Lots of posters also saying they see this as actually being further south than being modeled. That to me is pure hopecasting!!! One thing is for sure, if it stays as programmed , it’s going to be a wild one!

    Sorry was thinking about us on Scotland if it tracks further north. Not only would we get the snow but if it tracks slightly further north it will also bring very strong winds. However, looking at the models it looks very likely it will take a more Sly track and introduce a direct Nly to us by the end of the week. 

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

    Just spotted this in the GEFS

    gens-6-1-126.png

    I guess if it goes even further N you get total wipeout. Can't even see the space between the isobars, they've merged into one! Pretty much akin to a major hurricane in terms of windspeeds. Circa 120mph + gusts I'd imagine.

    I think this just highlights the uncertainty of the strength and direction of that low. One to watch very clisely as it makes landfall. If it tracks further north that will almost certainly bring blizzards around next thursday. 

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well well well. The GFS is producing some pretty wintry scenarios next week for some parts. Good agreement on the ensembles until the 21st. 

    t850Western~Isles.png

    Looks like that powerful jet will dive southwards past the Uk (thankfully).. and in doing so displaces the High pressure over East Europe Northwards. Creating blocking to pur North and an invitation for some very cold weather.  I totally agree with some comments about longer range developments... feb could be very wintry. 

     

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    This just gets more intriguing every morning. Looks like NWly flow will prevail.. bringing a cooling trend for by day 7 to 10. Snow defo possible yo NW and higher ground western parts start of next week. However, afterthat it looks like a bit of a battle between east v west... it really depends on how far the scandi block manages to progress westwards. Could be significant snowfall events for those further South as that colder air hits atlantic fronts. Also watching that SSW event on Fl as this could change everything. 

     

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Really quite interesting models... not much agreement past 5days and the spread of the GEFS ensembles say it all in terms of pressure for the UK. 

    GFS 0z has the High over us sink SE wards towards Greece and Turkey by T192 , the ECM has it migrating in the opposite direction to form an area of high pressure with the greenie high to the north of us. 

    Just wondering if the low 956mb to the north of us will verify.. I suspect not. 

    If we get a mixture of the models, we might have fun and games with high pressure of Scandanvia meeting the atlantic onslaught. 

    Interesting times ahead. 

     

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Im not so sure about that. We have had 3snow events this winter so far bringing more snow in each event than we normally have as a total of each winter. 

    Charts are indicate that the extreme cold of the US will leave its shores and be displaced over Europe. 

    Beasts from the easts are not the only direction that brings extreme cold snd snow. 

    For me this model watching has been fascinating with a lively atlantic been tempered by a wobbly  jetstream. We will get st least one severe cold spell. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    It appears the GFS can hold its head a little bit higher this morning. Not surprising as it looks like that very deep cold in the US is driving everything at the moment.  

    An easterly at this point would always be a bit of a mumdane affair given the temps in Europe. I would say enjoy the cold crisp weather the next few days and then start praying for some SSW event to displace the cold more towards Europe!

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