snowbunting
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Posts posted by snowbunting
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Ok, the pub run wasnt alone last night whilst out on the rang dang. Looks like it finished up in the night club dancing with 0z! In all honesty the NAO ensembles support such a development. Most going negative. 2010 anyone?indeed the ensembles for Western Isles is remarkable within that 7day time frame with GFS ops and GEFS showing a significant downward cooling trend. Might not teach the South but I think the North eill be chilly by next weekend.
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Hmmm. Think the pub tun is on the rang dang. North looks cold on this one with Greenie high controlling North Atlantic.
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6 minutes ago, LRD said:
What a chart that would be - without those poxy French/Spanish heights
I just get a feeling those heights are being overplayed by the models. Why would the models underplay a Greenie High and overplay a Euro high? Other than struggling with la nina influences. Perhaps the 0z run of gfs has cottoned onto this and is making that nly outbreak creep ever southwards? What I have noticed is a disjointed atlantic influence and a split polar vortex. Time will tell. These next few runs are going to be very interesting.
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I am struggling to buy into the monster low in the atlantic being able to push back a Greenie High on the 0z run of the GFS. I just cant believe a weak jet would do that. Glad it is out of the 7day range.
As has been mentioned before I think the models are struggling a bit with pretty unique climatic conditions.
Gut feeling... the ECM has found a trend. Lets hope it doesnt backtrack!
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I remember the gfs in 2009 picking up the cold signal out in Fl only to drop it and then come back with the signal at 7 days out... it wasnt wrong either!
Seems 2017 might be a reapeat. It dropped the signal for a second cold plunge next weekend in favour of something more Zonal... weather bomb... storm.
For this on the 12z run. I wonder if it will stick to this.
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The battle of the models begins.
At time 240hrs
ECM going for high pressure.
The GFS going for a Nly lasting days
Both suggesting a greenie high building.
So which one will be right?
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Can anyone remember when the cold signal started to appear on the Nov 2010 models? I remember going for a walk in Sleat, Skye early Nov thinking the switch between autumn/winter had turned really quickly. A bit like this year. I know many are still thinking it will turn to atlantic onslaught but looking at these models they all seem to be singing from a similar hymm sheet.
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I am certainly more hopeful and confident of a colder winter. Who wouldnt be with an Easterly QBO and heading towards a solar minimum. No sign of the dreaded Euro high either! Think our colder weather will almost certainly come from the North. It will be brief and disappear again before returning.
Reminds me of winter 83/84, but also 90/91.
Winters Coming !!!!
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Looked at both the GFS and ECM charts this morning. No surprises or massive changes from yesterdays runs. First thought is that the GFS is continuing with its cool NW ly flow hence a negative NAO trend. The high pressure in the atlantic is tempering any affect of the jetsream as is twists up and down over UK and Europe.
The Ensembles for my area show the mild followed by colder excursions in the coming days too.
In some respects the ECM follows that NWLy trend but with a huge area of Hugh pressure over Europe and much lower pressure over Greenland by +200hrs.
Synoptics look promising for a mixed bag of everything the next 2 weeks and I think the models are taking time to adjust to the effect a warmer arctic.
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On 31/10/2017 at 18:23, feb1991blizzard said:
Treat!!!
Do you know what the actual date of this was?
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Yes saw that cyclonegenesis espisode on the GFS 0z chart this morning. Given conditions in the atlantic I find it hard to believe it will happen. Last year or year before yes. Whats interesting is the creeping of colder NWly and Nly polar maritime air closer to our shores and into a more reliable timeframe.
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The 0zlooks more NW ly to me than SWly. Certainly not mild for this time of year. Not convinced it will be a mild Nov with the azores high constantly ridging either towards us or northwards in the atlantic. Its pushing the jetstream up and then down picking up cooler temps.
I know its a long way out but look at the low pressure over iceland would suggest a positive NAO but its taking in much colder air from Greenland and Canada hence dragging cooler NWly flow towards uk.
I am reading alot of mild ramping this winter. But it isnt the same winter as last year or the previous years. We have a Easterly QBO and a la nina. So expect something more early 90s.
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Im seeing that. A strong Nly. Chilly regardless of what type of precipitation falls from the sky.
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This potential Nly outbreak in early Nov is nothing out of the normal. We used to have these cold snaps mid autumn time alot in the 80s and 90s. Indeed it would be interesting to see the similarities in the synoptics between now and autumn ( mid oct ish) 1998 and ( nov 1st) 2001. Where we had several nly outbreaks filter down in the north of scotland.
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38 minutes ago, knocker said:
Compare the area of unseasonably warm ocean with the forecast track of Ophelia. H/t Stephen Rahmstorf
Has the blue blob of the North atlantic moved a little further West?
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Models having fun and games with this ex tropical storm. Looks like force 10 possibly 11. Track switches position Cornwall, South Coast. Western Ireland. NW Scotland. Sunday/Monday could be interesting.
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3 minutes ago, karyo said:
March 2006 was a wintry paradise!
Just a Tad, 17 days of snow falling, winter refused to go away, it was after a pretty disappointing winter 05/06.
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Liking the fact that both ECM and GFS are suggesting some form of a Nly around the 22nd /23rd of the Month. I get a feeling that the GFS is playing up the atlantic again.
What comes of this warming of the stratosphere, awaits to be seen, A repeat performance of 2006 surely cannot be ruled out?
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10 hours ago, JBMWeatherForever said:
This is a disappointing easterly no matter which way you look at it. Considering how cold the continent has been recently, we have been yet again unlucky
Not for me. This has been a cool calm and quite dry sunny winter up here. The easterly has coincided with the long weekend. Perfect.
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Not sure if this will constitute a SSW event but as greywolf has suggested before the last warming event obliterates the polar vortex. Not sure of the ramifications yet. I suspect a repeat of 2013... . No early warmth though no storms either with late lambing snow possible.
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2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:
Hi S.B.!
I'm waiting on the QBO to see if it will flip easterly this time. Mainly as I feel the push to keep it easterly is coming from energies originating in the far north. If this is correct then this years Final warming will be of similar impact to last years ( and just as early?) .... I wonder if we'll have anomalous ozone destruction over us this time around? I do wish you a lovely spring with plenty of those air masses that bring that 'photographic light' with them!
Thanku! An easterly flip must be imminant. The GFS is picking up Nly outbreaks now. Repeat and Rinse of 2006 perhaps. Todays weather. Long may it last!
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50 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:
Well I'm not moving on my take on things. what just happened was weak and more a displacement than a true SSW. This will continue on until another early strong final warming in 9 or 10 days? Could we be blighted with a cold March and some last gasp snow for folks?
It seems to be the pattern of things last few Springs. A cold March is a dry sunny March for us in the western isles. So I wont grumble.
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3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:
As a species we rely heavily upon a small number of growing regions and any 'multiple hit' on these areas will drive instant social response....... it's not all about a WACCy driven cold plunge and the price of courgettes...... it is deadly serious.
Agreed. Peoples attitudes to resources need to change too. We are not living in a sustainable manner. But that is by the by and for another forum. There is little doubt that the what hapoens in the stratosphere permiates down through the troposphere and eventually oceans.
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The QBO in its westerly phase looks like it has in the past taken some persuading to flip if the graph that Nouska is anything to go by. Not sure what is west and what colour is East. But both can be stubborn to let go of the reins.
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I still cant buy into an atlantic onslaught with such a huge area of greenie high. It is like the GFS has a light switch between stalling cyclonic conditions in the atlantic and then suddenly they evolve and move in eastwards over uk before turning westwards again. I just cant see that happening.
This will be a good test for the models. Might be worth analysing which one was closer by this time next week. I imagine it will be ECM.
Longer term synoptics and teleconnections look good for winter... if you like snow.