snowbunting
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Posts posted by snowbunting
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All charts lead to cold and some snowshowers by the weekend..again...
We live in one of the mildest parts of the UK.. (chuckle)... so far we have had three significant snow events.. Nov and 2 in december. Locals are calling this a harsh winter. Loads of frosts and ice.
The synoptics are modelling a rather unusal scenario with high pressure to the North near swalbvard. The jetstream is waving and meandering about like crazy even with a huge area of cold over the US.
This isnt a normal mild winter.
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11 minutes ago, Tamara said:
Just relatively briefly from me simply to wish members a Happy New Year
For what little it is worth, I would repeat the mantra I always used to suggest, and advise keeping some powder back in terms of too much intra suite NWP analysis - with some way to go with this upcoming evolution. Tropical forcing is coming back into being with the MJO heading into and programmed to head through the Indian Ocean and impacting AAM tendency upwards again. In simplest layperson terms, this sequence is pivotal to how much amplification flux there is downstream to create any meaningful chance of cold air advection from the NE in the further outlook.
But a reminder of that Phase 4 Global Wind Oscillation which shows the possible prize.
Its a case of can we properly get there and if so how long can it hold? Failure returns the pattern back to similar to what we currently have with Canadian vortex domination and downstream cyclonic cold rain and wind (and occasional snow away from the south and chiefly at northern altitude).
To part with: Composites need careful reading between the lines in terms of interpretation as much as NWP interpretations of signals. But the GWO doesn't lie whatever phase it passes through.
I have no idea what most of what you are saying actually means but that is not as important as wishing you a very happy and healthy 2018.
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Could turn very cold and dry over scotland with a blocking area of high pressure to the north hapoening... repeat of Jan 2004 perhaps?
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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:
I think the GFs is good so far with deep snow accumulating for Scotland at the end next week
Agreed Steve... the fear from the easterly shown in previous models was that it was orginating from a rather unseasonably mild Russia. However the air in the 12z orginates from a much colder direction that is then forced around the high. Exciting times ahead and a very interesting January coming up.
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12z shows less infilling of that low on the 5th Jan... trend is our friend.
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Good morning. Model watching is fascinating. Just a few thoughts on the 0z run this morning. I have to admit I groaned very loudly when I saw the charts this morning with that atlantic low refusing to budge over the Uk and sending our chances of a cold spell from the NE down the pan with it.
However, looking at the Sea level pressure chart, the synoptics dont look so bad with a strong atlantic ridge to our west, a green high and a tentative area of high pressure to the north. The other thing note worthy is no sign of a euro high.
So why on earth would that area of low pressure infill over the Uk... look at the jetstream
expect a big change...
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8 minutes ago, TEITS said:
Personally I don't think we shall see a solid block to our N/NE. What we may see is enough forcing from the relatively weak high over Scandi (if it forms) to divert the Atlantic SE.
I think im right in saying that the winter of 2013 did bring some significant snowfall events from a relatively weak high pressure system situated to our N.
It did yes TEITs, and I agree with your sentiments. Their is nothing that I can see in tbe models to suggest blocking/high pressure to our east that eould bring us cold wintry weather. I think it will all come from the NW and North.
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13 minutes ago, Faronstream said:
Looks extremely horrible in all weather models last days, not even a single day with -10 in 850 hpa so no proper cold is on the way. The most weird thing is that the polar vortex is not even that strong this season and still we are stuck in mild air anyway
-10 values are a rarity on the UK and are usually associated with a direct Nly blast or beast from the East
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Not convinced!
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The PV looks like it will finally leave the eastern seaboard of the USA if the ECM is to be believed from about day 7 to 10. Big change in the synoptics on the way.
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20 minutes ago, knocker said:
Think these images say it all. It really is winter on a knife edge. The charts keep things very unsettled with a strong NWly output theme remaining strong.
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On 15/12/2017 at 12:02, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:Following is tweet from Michael Ventrice.Talk about agreement between the end of the ECMWF EPS and GEFS for Day 15; The explosion of heights over Alaska in through the North Pole is very encouraging signature for a Wintry start to 2018.
I am confused. This was a tweet from him last Friday. About height gains etc etc. Now 7days on he is suggesting a return of the Polar Vortex...
I thought that we need a strong PV to get the best effect from a SSW... just like Jan 2013?
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The GFS is sending out some very interesting solutions for around Christmas day. Not saying snow but not really saying mild either. Tiny adjustments in models making a huge difference in output.
Will be really interesting to see how this one evolves with 8 days to go.
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0z demonstrating to us that zonal mild atlantic just isnt going to happen for long periods of time. Significant change to colder synoptics expeced around Christmas if these last few runs of the gfs are to believed.
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Long way out... Taking note of the cold nly plunge around Christmas day.. present on the 12z still there in some respects on the 18z.
Hmmm. Wonder what the GFS is sniffing at?
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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:
Hmm, things don't look too great from my own point of view:
Looks like this may take a while to shift!Hopefully I have read the chart right! It does for a while but not convinced its grip will be maintained in January looking at the two areas of low pressure around the Greenland and Siberia.the colder less dense air looks for prone to lobing and spilling out of the arctic than normal. Any SSW will pretty much destroy any strong vortex fornation. I think the words vulnerable and potential are appropriate here.
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3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:
I'm still not convinced that the Atlantic will come crashing in. Yes it may not be quite as cold as the last few days but there is only 1 mild day programmed on the ECM and that is at day 8. That has the possibilty to be watered down. The PV is not at full throttle yet and the jet is still showing a tendency to continue with the NW/SE axis so I wouldn't be surprised to see further cold incursions lasting longer than ant mild interludes.
No traditional zonality modelled in the reliable just yet. Just no blocking either.
I agree Chiono. It seems even from a novice like me that Nly outbreaks can happen even with subtle changes in ridging. Models seems keen to keep the jet meandering in the around the Northern hemisphere.
Ok I admit chances of a UK wide christmas snow event are slim but for certain areas maybe just possible.
We live in the Western Isles. Supposedly on the mild atlantic. Snow is unusual close to the coast. A snow event with several inches recorded is even rarer. We have a rapidly cooling island that increases the chance of snow.
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Lots of snow for North Lewis over the weekend. About 6inches in depth.. deeper in drifts. The locals are saying most snow since 2010...
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Picked this put from the GFS... seems to be a bit of a recurrent pattern. With ridging in the atlantic as cold air spills from the north. I know people are stating mild zonal weather for christmas. But given the amount of snow we have had, I think its too close to call personally. Not convinced about polar vortex strengthening either.
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Gfs had Storm Caroline spot on 7days out.
Another date via reload of the Nly? I have to say with reading what Tamara has said last night and the METO longer range. I find it hard to bet against such a scenario.
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Isle of Lewis.... our digital anemometer is 4m up. Gusting regularly over 130km an hour. Temp dropping all the time. Snow about to arrive in next few hours.
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Waiting for the storm.... North isle of Lewis.
Prepared, I hope!
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I thought I would share some runs from the models last friday for the big thursday event. I found it fascinating how the gfs and ecm fared out in Fl.
Gfs stuck to its guns with the cold nly outbreak but underplayed the area of low pressure with the ECM similar.
One last thing. Is Storm Caroline likely to produce a potent sting jet given the steap temp gradient as she moves through on Thurs
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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:
Something that went under the radar on the ECM was the 100mph gusts over Northern Scotland on Thursday.
Eeek dont say that. Together withheavt snow showers we might get snowed in and .... ok I will stop!
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expect a big change...
Model output discussion - into 2018
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Another really cold and wintry spell on the cards for the far north of the UK.. GFS/ECM putting out a 516damline with a -11 850hpa... that is bitterly cold. Snow expected again as it crosses the north sea.
Astoundingly bitterly cold winter at times for us. Very unsual.