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The 06Z NMM hi-res shows rain reaching the western edge of our region at around 0200 Saturday... Light rain turns to sleet/rain/snow over the North Downs in Kent and Sussex from around 1700... By 1900 this covers Kent/Sussex/Surrey, still rain on the south coast It then begins to die out from west to east but lingers in Kent until the model run ends at 0600 Sunday (by which point its showing light snow for southern Essex). From past experience, where it shows rain/snow here in Meopham, it means exactly that - I've had it come down as heavy rain, or thick snowflakes. So all to play for per the hi-res!

Netweather hi-res NMM model shows rain up to the M4 corridor initially on Saturday which turns to sleet by 18Z. We'll need to see the next run to see what happens after that (I'm not getting up at 5am though!)

Do I dare jinx things by buying a snow shovel this evening?

GFS 12Z still going for some snow on Sunday evening / Monday morning. It's still marginal though...

Everything still to play for on the GFS 6Z at +144 (which is FI given the variability of recent runs). Bulk of precipitation is on north-eastern coasts. However, snow showers would occur across our region and the models aren't great at streamers anyway. Main issue is the placement of this low: The track of this low will affect heavily our region's chance of cold air and any wintry ppn. As I say, all to play for... (next run will be completely different though most likely!)

6th January... Happy SSW Day everyone! http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=all&lng=eng

Looking at the MOD thread I can only think the M stands for 'mental' Still lots to play for, can't get hung up on one run or another - the SSW gives us a good chance of unusual cold... or more southerlies and mild muck. Might as well toss a coin rather than stress out every six hours based on FI charts on the latest run.

A horrible day not aided by somebody (I think accidently) stealing my umbrella on the train in!

Interesting blog from the Met Office about the BFTE: The meteorology behind the ‘Beast from the East’ 7 12 2012 The ‘Beast from the East’ – not the Grammy nominated live album of 1988 from heavy rock band Dokken – but the phrase being used to describe what looks set to be some cold and wintry conditions to the UK next week has been mentioned in many newspapers today. But what actually is the meteorological situation and what is the outlook for next week? Strictly speaking our weather is not expected to be coming directly from the east next week, but more from the northeast, tracking across the North Sea from Scandinavia, bringing cold north to northeastly winds to our shores. As this cold air moves over the relatively mild North Sea, the air will pick up moisture and become increasing unstable, bringing showers to eastern parts of the country as shown on the chart below. The showers are most likely across eastern parts of Scotland and northern England on Monday, and as the week progresses they will spread increasingly further south to other parts of eastern England. At first they are likely to be a mix of rain, sleet and snow, but are expected to become increasingly wintry in nature, potentially leading to some locally significant falls of snow, especially over high ground, including the Highlands, Southern Uplands of Scotland and the hills of Northumberland and the North York Moors. Although next week will certainly be very cold, especially compared to a brief respite from the cold conditions over the coming weekend, at the moment it is not expected to be as cold as the bitter conditions we saw back in December 2010 when temperatures fell to -21.3 deg C on 2nd December at Altnaharra in Scotland, which was the lowest December temperature recorded in the UK since 13th December 1995. Met Office forecasters will be monitoring this developing weather situation throughout the weekend and will update forecasts and warnings. This will ensure the public has access to the latest weather forecasts that will help them prepare, plan and protect themselves from the impacts of the snow and icy conditions expected next week. Met Office Cold Weather Alerts have been issued for the whole of England as the forecast weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients. The latest forecasts and warnings can be found on the Met Office website, on ourmobile apps and through TV and radio broadcasts on the BBC and ITV. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/the-meteorology-behind-the-beast-from-the-east/

Sleet has now turned to snow.

From reading this thread one would think the chance of snow has receded massively. But then I see the Met Office this morning states: There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0000 on Monday and 0800 on Tuesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action. Less cold over the next few days with higher daytime temperatures than of late so the mean temperature criteria is unlikely to be met this weekend, despite overnight frosts. There is now growing confidence that into the start of next week very cold air originating from the east or northeast will spread across the whole of England. An east or northeasterly flow at times will bring snow showers, particularly to the east of England, these sometimes heavy, and leading to locally significant accumulations. At present this spell of very cold weather looks set to last through much of next week and it is likely this alert will need to be extended.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action Issued at: 0832 on Fri 7 Dec 2012 There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0000 on Monday and 0800 on Tuesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action. Less cold over the next few days with higher daytime temperatures than of late so the mean temperature criteria is unlikely to be met this weekend, despite overnight frosts. There is now growing confidence that into the start of next week very cold air originating from the east or northeast will spread across the whole of England. An east or northeasterly flow at times will bring snow showers, particularly to the east of England, these sometimes heavy, and leading to locally significant accumulations. At present this spell of very cold weather looks set to last through much of next week and it is likely this alert will need to be extended. An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map Clicking over to the regional risk values: East of England 80% Very cold with snow showers, giving significant accumulations in places. Southeast England 80% Very cold with snow showers, perhaps giving significant accumulations in places. London 80% Very cold with snow showers, perhaps some accumulations.

So it looks like Meopham actually got off pretty lightly, which is unusual given that we're on the slopes up to the North Downs. This might explain the train delays a bit more... I was confused how less than half a cm of snow could cause any problems!

Well, the fields look lovely from the window of my train in to work. A nice start to winter!

Heavy-ish snow in Meopham has just finished and left the place looking rather lovely

NMM has backed away but MO now showing heavy snow for 9am tomorrow... confused!

Met Office has now come into line with the NMM model and predicts light snow for my area tomorrow morning. That's NMM, GFS and the MO saying we're on for snow. I'm starting to get my hopes up...

NMM has a decent snow signal for most of the region tomorrow morning, albeit mixed with sleet. For my postcode it's showing snow from 07.00-09.00 with a total of about 2.3mm precipitation. Which would be about 2cm if it fell as snow, I think? Fingers crossed!

Radar is showing sleet here but it's just cold rain

NMM is now showing light snow for Meopham on Saturday. Still in with an outside chance, it'll be down to nowcasting I reckon.

Sod the weather models and the prozac-infused MOD thread, I'm taking this as my official, Met Office-sponsored ramp!

Model summaries are very appreciated here... once the MOD gets up to twenty pages per day each winter I can't keep up!

30 minutes ago I started reading this thread wondering how it could be so quiet outside, but the noise of the wind is really starting to pick up now... Am I right in thinking the winds will be at their maximum to the south of that?

6 hours of dreary drizzle = rubbish 15 minutes of intense squall line rain = awesome (Provided it hits *after* I've walked back from the station!)

Hi John, That looks to give an easterly, but I'd be interested to know your thoughts on whether that would be cold enough to give snow or just very cold rain?