Iceberg

I seem to think all canes are shes. My default error. On the last pass several sub 970mb records found. 968mb at the lowest.

An insane tower in the sw quad. Could account for the 200mph contaminated surface reading. Second noaa plane currently just going in. Already flight winds of 99kts at 986mb. Interesting that ts winds ext to 105miles. This is already further than the forecast for the weekend so she isn’t as small they thought. Imo she will be quite a bit bigger.

Recon have just done their first pass of the day. Pressure now sub 970mb surface of 95it's and flight winds of 98kts.

A huge amount of uncertainty still def with latest ecm. Stalling the system between Florida and the Bahamas for 24hrs longer than the nhc so doesn't get to Florida until monday. this map from nhc shows nicely when the winds shou pick up..it will update every 6 hrs. With Orlando being further North the uncertainty increases due to the increased stall chance. However even though ts winds won't get there until later the turbulence in the pre outflow eff will likely cause them to close Atlantic routes maybe 12 hrs or so before hand.

Sorry I thought I had replied to this. Miami no chance. Imo Orlando unlikely Tampa maybe But contact the airline asap imo...really sorry.

The core looks really angry on the latest slider a few mins ago. Its being pushed around under the exerted pressures. Lots of towers and lightning. Could be ri. If that centre stabilises and clears out then a cat 4. I’ve also put in what he looked like late yesterday morning.

Upper to 90kt in the latest advisory. Also upped is the landfall to a cat 4 120kts a touch further South at port st Lucie

Two planes in. Noaa just recorded 973mb

As expected recon have just entered the centre. Pressure 978mb winds 80-85kts. So ramping up quickly

12z Ecm is getting there. A still think it will hang a bit more offshore

Slider continues to show quick organisation over the last 10mins Some really deep convention firing on the west side. But the eye is fully enclosed. Recon have found 985mb and missed the centre on that pass.

Centre looks to be increasing its organisation quite quickly on current slide almost a ring of deeper convection now around the outer eye. Recon are finding more sub 990mb readings over a wider area. Inflow is increasing as well under a decent comma..Still weak on the East side but the best he's been

Two recon passes one the last hr both 986\987 winds at 70kts . should be sub 980 by tomorrow morning.

Latest ir and visual from the slider shows some towers to the nw of the centre. Iceday. I agree but still expect a shift in models. :) they should get a good handle in the next 48 hrs.

I've been watching Dorian with interest. a very complicated system. started off life very small but with a nice llcc. then some intensification. then last 24hrs though has seen him struggle..the dry air has been an issue as the cdo has been staggered pretty small. The outflow has been extensive thanks in part to the very good circulation but without the inflow he has struggled to keep unwell fed with frequent bouts of dry air. Recon has found this up and down status. On visual he has looked good thanks to the good circulation. But radar and ir has shown a pretty ugly system at times. Going forward the path is showing a strong beeline to central Florida and then a stall and turn due north. Some globals showing a path into the gom then the sharp turn North into the panhandle border. Some i.e 00z ecm make the turn North whilst over florida. It's worth ignoring models imo to some degree and looking at climatology...central Florida hits are rare due to the recurve. Just imo but I would favour the ridge weakness sooner even than ecm stalling the system more and then moving North maybe just offshore before a North Florida \ South Carolina hit. The last hr or so has seen a 're wrapping of convection around the centre so a period of intensification is very likely today\tonight. Also Dorian isn't a small system anymore. It's growing and once inflow gets going with the ssts a large system might well develop. Certainly the first serious storm of the year and possibly a MAJOR headache.

No charts I am afraid. But clear retrogression of the PV daigheter cell after the split. The cell that starts off NE Canada Hudson, by T168-200 has started the unstoppable process of centring around Alaska. It should be a clear signal of east or ne cold from t168 onwards. Gfs ens is very much supporting this and ec is strongly hinting at it. Obviously strat propergation induced and this kind of retrogression of the daughter cell has been underseen by the pros imho.

Eye is just coming onshore. I would say we have landfall.

Recon are still in 918mb recorded. Cat 4 winds in all quads. I counted as many as 45 readings at 100kts it higher. Just 1 reading would normally indicate a boarderline major hurricane. Hurricane winds across a diameter of 150miles with cat 2-3 winds over 50-60 miles

Seems mundane but this is a totally insane run of flight winds. Massive massive area with winds of 100kts and above.

He’s getting close to landfall def turn end.

919.9mb pressure just recorded. Seems a little low but.

Second plane and just gone theu and recorded sub 930 pressure. Also 144 kt flight winds in the se quad. So a raise to 130kts might be on the cards.

daylight pic. IR shows some warming of cloud tops to the ne, due to land interaction.

926mb is an incredible pressure, but its worth bearing in mind that lots of recon hasn't found even high end cat 4 yet. I honest don't think there is time for cat 5. Still lots of lots of problems though.