Iceberg

981.7mb on that pass so still falling quite quickly. Surface winds slowly responding 69kts.

Another pass. 982 mb winds the same, but the pool of 985mb pressure and lower is expanding to sub 980mb should be very very soon. Probably 975mb at least my close of play today.

High res ramm slider shows the deeper convection wrapping very well. Also the vis shows the high towers coming up. The openness of the eye is fast disappearing.

Nhc update just been released. Satellite images indicate that Florence is strengthening. Deep convection has intensified in the central dense overcast, with hints of a ragged eye in the latest GOES-16 visible channel. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters just flew through the eye, finding 70 kt winds at flight-level and 66 kt from the SFMR. This data confirms that Florence has become a hurricane again, and the initial wind speed is set to 65 kt. The aircraft also found that the minimum pressure has decreased to 984 mb. Overnight microwave data and the Hurricane Hunter vortex message show that a mostly complete eyewall has formed with Florence. In combination with low vertical wind shear and progressively warmer waters near 29C, this structure is a blueprint for rapid intensification. Almost all of the intensity guidance is showing at least one period of rapid strengthening during the next few days, which is rather rare. The NHC wind speed forecast is raised in the first couple of days following the guidance trend, then is very similar to the previous one. All indications are that Florence will be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane while it moves over the western Atlantic toward the southeastern United States.

Vortex drop confirmed a 20mile eye open in a couple of places. But with a solid core.

Sorry 983-984 pressure. With a bit Of wind. A clear eye wall evident in the winds. Need vortex to see if it’s closed.

Recon have just done a first quick pass and already found 985/986 pressure. Ft winds of 70kts and surface winds of 67kts so a clear cat 1.

The eye isn’t yet clear on vis ie cloud free, this is a sign of a cat 3 major. But large towers are firing up on the eastern side.

Florence is officially back to being a hurricane. A clear eye has formed and with this raw Dvorak has increased to a cat 2. Rapid intensification flags have been set and convective banding around the eye is taking place.

Gfs 06 finally wakes up to reality. Very little info atm. Microwave is a good while ago, latest below but 6 hrs old. Cdo convection continues to increase. Recon isn’t until later today, but will probably find hurricane winds imho.

Florence has Been giving a decent impression of a cat 1 hurricane in the last hr. convection is far better and cdo complete. Ec and meto ens below. To be fair ec and 90% of its ens goes for a solid hit. The vast majority of mogreps goes for a hit as well. Gfs is slowly moving in this direction now, but I can’t see this missing the Carolinas.

Ec then goes onto an identical run to the 12z. Winds of 140mph and a mixture of precip totals with give 100-150cm of rain for places and widely 30-50cm.

All three named storms Isaac Florence and Helene from the 00z ec. All being steered by the same ridge.

Florence is still struggling. I was trying to understand why, the chart below shows the upwelling of cold water under Florence and the fact that it’s drained most of the energy frok the ocean it’s currently under. Florence will need to gain a bit of speed to get its cdo organised. This is due to start happening later today. Plenty of energy in it path, particularly where it’s forecast to stall unfortunately.

Isaac continues to be better organised. It is expected to hit the first islands as a cat 2 hurricane.

This has now been named. Ive for a feeling this will be another interesting one. The path has it going straight into the Caribbean as a hurricane. Busy time coming up for the nhc and the hurricane hunters.

As expected nhc have names this Isaac. So a new thread.

That’s forecast from a tropical storm start only. Some like Irma where forecast as cat 5s all the way through some forecast 5 day charts. Given that Florence has already been a cat 4 it’s not that surprising. I wonder how many storms have gone down from cat 4 to a ts and then back to cat 4 again. ?

Td 9 is getting there, boarderline ts and night gets its name either this evening or tomorrow morning.

Helene is a very large envelope ts. Due to this the tightening is taking a while. Currently though raw t numbers indicate quite a strong tropical storm. When she gets it together she should be very pretty.

Just looking at some gfs ens figures. None of the gfs ens that forecast Florence to stay a fish had her at her current south position. This includes the gfs ops. Its more evidence that gfs continues to underplay the strength of the high.

As an aside the centre is south of expected forecasts already. When looking at ens the members that start off a little south normally hit land.

Ec fractionl further north but has landfall sub 950 at Wilmington. But by golly does it move slowly. Very damaging if this happens.

bigger area of sub 990mb on this run 988.5mb lowest.

Nice convection band now around the core/eye. Precip looks to be just about to start firing.