Iceberg

Recon have been in pressure of 989.5mb and winds of 50-60kts so far. Not bad at all considering the shear.

Florence took a gulp of dry air as the precip built and moved around. The precip around the core is moving nicely round and mixing of dry air should be pretty easy. Outflow still expanding.

Good core image from 30 mins ago

Tbh I certainly wouldn’t rule anything out. Around 10-20% of ec eps did keep her out to see just. More though took Florence further sw though. Also as nhc say the trend has consistently been south and west, with gfs consistently underplaying the blocking high. More globals and hurricanes. I would always treat any global intensification as a conservative. Particularly meto and mogreps. Both ec and gfs have seperate meto intensification models for hurricanes based upon global data simply as they don’t have the res to model this very well and always under do it. Given the above I would like to see a movement north/east from ec before giving it too much of a chance. Back to now and Florence is under going rapid intensification imho. Raw t numbers indicate she has moved quickly back to a cat 2. An eye in a cdo is also evident along with a much more if not conplete vertically stacked core. Old picture from a few hrs ago and new one. New one much tighter A very strong cat 4 is on the cards.

Meto global has this according to my data AL, 06, 2018090800, 22, EP00, 168, 315N, 855W, 31, 990, XX, 34, NEQ, for t168. Ie 990mb probably cat 1 storm. But meto always goes for a lower cane at that distance due to lower res issues. Realistically it’s probably forecasting a cat 2-3 at higher res and that isn’t at landfall. Meto and mogreps agree well with ec on path.

Florence has really turned the corner this morning. The centre, red dot, now has convection to the west and t numbers are increasing. Nhc update. Although Florence remains a sheared tropical cyclone, satellite imagery during the past 6 h also indicates that the shear has started to abate somewhat, which has allowed the dense cirrus canopy to build back over the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Furthermore, deep convection with overshooting cloud tops near -80C and an abundance of lightning activity have developed very close to the center. Based on these data along with Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt. to add to this they have increased her day 5 to 125kts, a strong cat 4 and only 15kts from a cat 5. Path is still Zeroing in on NC/SC. She will likely become a freightening storm again over the weekend.

Ec again goes for an almost identical hit. At the moment we at looking at the Charleston area. She is forecast to be a cat 4 major hurricane so the winds will be very damaging. However possibly more concerning is the slow nature of the storms movement. Hence many area could see 48-72hrs of rainfall. Flooding is looking certain and must be the major focus.

A wide range of landfalls from the meto and ec ens. Anywhere from Florida to NC. A small percentage have a recurve but the trend is still south. Its starting to become difficult to see the us missing this one.

Latest 12z ec.

Very inconvenient of them. Visual sat of Florence, 92l and eight all in a row left to right.

Florence continues to improve. Dvorak chart below shows this clearly and the corner has been turned. Say loops confirm better outflow and a slight ssw movement. Gfs can no longer avoid this movement and 12z continues the model turn around with a firm NC hit. Although not nailed on, the models are certainly forming up on this enough for the NC coastline to start to take some precautions.

Gfs 06 came round to the meto and ec with a Friday/Saturday landfall and then inland a little. Currently shear is def. moving from sw quad to se quad. Personally I think she’s looking a bit better. Ready to pick up in Ernest tomorrow.

Ec dribbling out and shows a further move south and west.

Now back to tropical storm status. ADT dvorak has her at a low end ts. Personally I don’t think thats fair. Dvorak can struggle in these situations a bit. Gfs still goes for a close shave but it’s beej pretty dire. The nhc path has mean trying to Tread between gfs and ec but every single run has been shifting westward as gfs continues to lag. Florence is now due to be well south and west of Bermuda for example now. Shear has been relentless. Just imho, but I think shear has lessened in the last hr or so. Precip is just starting to appear, to the sw and outflow is no longer being quite as strangled. Today might show an steady improvement. Also today and tomorrow should show how far due west or even just south of west Florence will travel.

92l small blob, 93l large blob. A very blobby Atlantic.

Latest nhc update just released. Keeps as a cat 1 hurricane, just ! “ Vertical shear has taken its toll on Florence today as evidenced by a continued degradation of the overall cloud pattern. The circulation appears tilted, with the low-level center partially exposed to the southwest of the deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers have fallen, and a blend of the various estimates supports an initial intensity of 70 kt. The intensity forecast is relatively straightforward in the short-term as shear is expected to remain strong, which should continue Florence's weakening trend, potentially taking the system below hurricane strength. By 24 hours, vertical shear is forecast to decrease, and the SSTs gradually warm along the forecast track. Assuming the overall circulation remains intact, Florence shouldn't have any problems restrengthening beginning in a day or so. In fact, guidance suggests that Florence could once again become a major hurricane in 4 or 5 days. “

Ec ens. In the last few frames she has recovered the smallest of amounts. Dvorak don’t really indicate a hurricane even at the moment but only another 12-24 hrs of punishing shear. Upwelljng of cooler waters under 28c ssts is also a problem imho as convection is limited regardless of shear.

Ec 12z maintains some consistency. 940-950mb and landfall in North Carolina. Then a travel up the coast.

Gfs ops 12z has joined the other models on a us mainland hit. This time around New York/Long Island. It then does a 360 loop, back down , gains some strength and goes pass again. Not the final solution imho. I am personally going for a North Carolina hit, out of gut and nothing else. Re Bermuda it should pass just to the south. With a bit of luck the small size should mean that Bermuda escapes any real affects.

mogreps is essentially the meto ens suite so will nearly always follow the meto ops

Very complicated. 92l is likely to be followed very soon surface wind are closed and it looks like a very good cdo.

Future T.S. 8 is looking quite angry and organised this morning. As it future number 9 just behind it.

METO and Mogreps 00z. It does indeed. Florida style. Waiting for ec ens.

Shear is finally eating away at her, dvorak comes all the way down to a cat 2 now. However shear isn’t due to last long and the eye is staying intact. Ec 00z again has landfall probably as a high end large cat 4 with 945mb pressure. Potential landfall is only 7 days away. But obviously 2 days of chopping and changing yet.

Sorry wrong one that’s Florence’s.