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Iceberg

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Everything posted by Iceberg

  1. Iceberg
    Cracking t216 chart from ec 100% snow for the south. As soon as the lows track se the cold will always return.
  2. Iceberg
    Was just about to mention this the filling of the lows from t180 just south of Greenland are anti norm as well. This kind of movement should indicate scandy high pressure but gfs wasn’t playing ball this run. Tbh gfs seemed a little clueless what to do t180 onwards.
  3. Iceberg
    It’s impossible to over state the effects of gfs from t144 to t180 or so. The amount of snow and 70-80mph winds would be a story for the next 50 years. The really unusual point is that it’s all quite realistic given the Synoptics and timeframe, if still unlikely at this range.
  4. Iceberg
    Some snow from the ec, a nice sprinkling for quite a few. Certainly not bad for snow depth for the first day in winter. It’s now in the semi reliable so not to be entirely discounted.
  5. Iceberg
    She is currently showing on 30 min sat 24 updates as she approaches. Latest shots indicate the eye still intact and very tropical. Although the outer edges are probably starting to experience frontal change.
  6. Iceberg
    Ec shows it slightly windier than the last run. Also the front winds up the Irish Sea ie Dublin as well as the central west side.
  7. Iceberg
    Gusts mph. I think one of the key things to take is that the winds will go inland it won't be just a coastal event.
  8. Iceberg
    Ec max winds from the 12z run. Quite damaging for a big chunk of Ireland.
  9. Iceberg
    I am not sure I believe the nhc prediction of this losing its tropical nature in just 24 hrs.
  10. Iceberg
    Have to admit I am going to take a screen print of the nhc update of the closest major hurricane ever for the uk. The water vapour currently over the west and nw of the British isles is all part of the same feeder band into this very pretty lady.
  11. Iceberg
    Both ec ops and ctrl have quite a potent storm sun/mon kind of time. Mean speeds of 40-50 mph in the south, but eps puts the winds anywhere from Scotland to north France.
  12. Iceberg
    She looks awful. Both gfs and ec have her hitting land though the problem is it's the uk ! in about one week.
  13. Iceberg
    She's not looking too bad ATM. But importantly is west of the forecast point. It will need watching over the next 6-12 hrs too see if the west of north trend continues. Recon have just done a path still sub 950 at 944mb and surface winds a touch higher.
  14. Iceberg
    Maria is certainly trend west in her paths. Latest gfs has her stalling for 12-24 hrs very close to the us. Maria is also looking ok ATM on radar. Not perfect but certainly better. If she ever gets good convection around the eye winds will respond rapidly.
  15. Iceberg
    It's a degrading instability spot caused by the moisture of Maria outflow and the mountain terrain of PR. It will certainly be causing problems for the poor people there.
  16. Iceberg
    Wish I knew. Lack is stable core but why? maria seems to want to make life easy for nhc by putting an x in the centre.
  17. Iceberg
    Maria wins the prize for the most unusual and damn right wierd eyes. Ive put the normal one from earlier as well.
  18. Iceberg
    And me being a teacher ! i blame the fact that 95% of my posts are done quickly on my phone.
  19. Iceberg
    Just had another look Looks like its a massive strink of the eye from 40m to 10m with a clear cut across with towers in the NE rim i.e intensification.
  20. Iceberg
    Possible, my main concern is the direction of the winds in the clear section of the eye, it seems to indicate the true centre of the llcc is under the blob of convection sticking out a little.
  21. Iceberg
    Not your typical eye. It certainly doesn't look right ATM. Possible a decoupling, possible a much smaller eye forming. Possibly a partial eye collapse. Their is very little se rotation and much more north to nw.
  22. Iceberg
    Maria looks quite angry again with a large eye. Some tell tail signs of a zebra doughnut with rippling and the centre of the eye on loop had considerable spinning within in. All of this should lead to the eye strinking. I've got a feeling she is getting stronger though. As for path, not long now until she will stay out to see, the models are Generally backing away from any land interaction at least whilst a tropical Storm. Personally I prefer the look of the larger eye storms.
  23. Iceberg
    Recon finishing another pass winds just about cat 4 now in the outer wall and she's just starting to intensify that wall again. Winds in inner down to cat 2 now.
  24. Iceberg
    Two ec shots that show how much closer to the us east coast Maria is getting on the more recent runs.
  25. Iceberg
    The island of st croix was in the weaker outer eye wall, so although battered won't have been under the same magnitude as Dominica.
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