Iceberg

92l meto path. It will be affected by Florence and the ridge that Florence throws up behind her.

Just after I finished the above they update. Inconsiderate. Florence has continued to intensify during the day, with colder cloud tops completely encircling a clearer eye. Both subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have unanimously increased to T6.0/115 kt, and on this basis, the initial intensity is raised to 115 kt, making Florence a category 4 hurricane. so she’s a cat 4 and the forecast is for only a little weakening before a return to a major hurricane again.

Dvorak has gone up and down a touch but has stayed at 110-115kts. So either a low end cat 4 or high end cat 3 in the next advisory. Shear is having a very small affect mainly on outflow in the sw quad. However despite having ssts of only 27-28c she’s doing jncredibly. From sometime tomorrow ssts should rise above 28c.

According to dvorak it peaked an hr or so ago as a cat 4, but since declined a touch back to a high end cat 3 ec shows a bad scenario of a probable cat 3-4 just if the coast for awhile this is still along way off though and even 3 days will only bring any potential landfall into the outer reaches of reliable forecasting nice pin hole eye on sat 12z models of the whole badly modelled initialisation though with most such as hwrf having a cat 1

Well 4pm update confirms it. 125mph cat 3 major. Only 5 mph from a cat 4. The intensity seems to be slower her down a bit as well which is making problems. As it the ability for a large cane to throw up ridges and require more steering.

To make matters worse Florence is now the first major hurricane if the season. T numbers are still increasing currently supporting 110kts. Really become a beast.

now upped to 65mph sustained winds, Gordon is out at sea prior to US landfall. Pressure is still 1003mb, partially due to the high pressure around it and also as its struggled to gets a strong persistent eye wall to allow pressure to lower.

NHC have upped development of the yellow warning for the system leaving africa to 50%, so a tropical storm or hurricane Helene might well happen over the next 3-6 days. This is on a much more southerly route than Florence in front of it and the chances of it remaining a fish if it does develop are considerably less. Behind this another system is on the coast of Africa and this might be yet another potential system, but along time before that it needs to be watched.

EC keeps moving west and even south with her.

Cracking eye

That eye is clearing at an amazing speed. Eyewall strengthening. I wouldn’t like to guess what this will be when it hits land. But it WILL be a hurricane imo. Possible a potent one.

Yes. It’s unusual though and must have a warm core centre. Gordon though is rapidly developing an eye. Recon have a bit of outline flying in the ne quad but have just started another pas towards the centre.

Close up of developing eye wall on radar. As expected the precip is wrapping round now into the sw quad as it moves out to sea

Rainfall rates of 79mm an hr as well.

Rain contaminated, but recon have just found sustained of 55kts and squally winds of 70+kts. Ie equals in the ne quad overland with almost 100mph wind. No wonder there are reports of power failures etc.

Vortex just in centre moving off the coast. And sustained 40kts. Unconfirmed reports of 60mph sustained. And some effects on electricity etc. This might spin up rapidly in the next 6 hrs.

Gordon has some fantastic banding. The centre is embedded in a of convection just leaving Florida. Obviously overland they can’t get vortex reading, but winds of 40kt max from recon fully supporting nhc intensity. With precious and banding fantastic in the ne quad but missing in the sw, leaving the coast should allow him to get more symmetrical. This will need massive concentrate from the nhc as 3hrly changes could be substantial.

Florence certainly seems like a big storm. Currently boarderline cat 1 imho. Probably 60-65kts. ADT dvorak gives 62kts and radar 60kts. The size might indicate a gfs solution as it gets picked up more easily. However I am skeptical it will and would favour the ec solution that many of the models endorse.

And we have now Gordon, with its own thread.

Recon is on route and Gordon has spun up quickly. I think this could well make hurricane prior landfall. Also interesting that the nhc say at least 40kts. Gom is very primed for development.

As expected and forecast very well by the EC and very badly by gfs. We have tropical storm Gordon. Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida, along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that the disturbance has developed a closed surface circulation and a well-defined center. Recent observations from a Weatherflow site at Carys Fort Reef and radar data support increasing the maximum winds to at least 40 kt. As a result of these data, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named system of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Gordon. The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt and the previous forecast track remains unchanged. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward in the first 24 to 36 hours to account for the initial increase in intensity. Some additional adjustments may be required after the reconnaissance aircraft completes its mission and provides more detailed information on the stricture and intensity of Gordon.

The invest 91 near Florida is. I’ve tracked by nhc as number 7. Looking at radar loops from key west it must be very very close to being Gordon. A very nice tight swirl still open in places but as he crosses the gs and enters the gom a very rapid increase is possible if not likely.

Sorry should have posted this up prior. It shows it far better than I could explain. A busy period coming up.

Yep the feature talked about above is 91l which is different to Florence. 91l is starting to develop rather quickly. It will pass south Florida before entering the gom. We also have Florence which is on its own thread. The third feature is the open wave that came off Africa behind Florence.

Ec will make a few take note. A fish this might well not be. Now that the models are initialising her more accurately, the shear is keeping her from strengthening. This in turns prevents a more northerly track and she misses the trough that would normally pick her up. Gfs 12z has shifted westwards as well, not as much but a similar theme. Unfortunately once she missed the trough. Ssts increase due to the gs and shear falls massively. Hence a major hurricane.