Geordiesnow

Well the ECM in the end finally shows why its often known as over amplifying things when you see those type of charts, beautiful too look at but a long way from happening and the next run will show variation from those. I'm still not going to discount the possibilities of shortwaves spoiling things because the actual WAA into Greenland is still too far off to be confident of it happening and we been here many times before where the models have been showing attempted ridges into Greenland only for them to fail by those dreaded shortwaves! That said, tonight's ECM is a bit of a relief that it has backtracked in the short to medium term, another flatish run may have people getting a bit edgy again and starting to think whether its onto something. Heres hoping the GFS will fall in line in the shorter term of sending that trigger low eastwards at 96 hours, i want the colder air in ASAP.

Does not mean an epic cold spell will happen though and people will have to bear that in mind. The important things is that the models are in agreement on it turning colder and now the models are in agreement on at least trying to send some WAA into Greenland, its too early to say how long it will last because the details will change and that will affect the outputs but there is a chance we may be in for a period of colder air longer than perhaps first thought.

It does look more and more likely the GFS is wrong in the short term regarding its positioning and timing of the trigger low pressure system which probably makes the rest of it output wrong to an extent however unlike the failed promise of the easterly, we do have broad agreement on the outlook turning colder with the risk of snowfall appearing as early as this Sunday onwards for some areas. Kind of irrelevant what the rest of the run shows now, the important bit is the ECM continuing to backtrack from its flatter set up.

Well at least the ECM is following the UKMO in sending that low eastwards therefore the floodgates open quicker than the GFS run, this run upto 120 hours does look a little bit more amplified than this morning's runs also. Either way, I'm happy the ECM is maintaining the trend of shifting the trigger low quicker eastwards, I rather get the cold in than having any delays to it. Edit: Yep, the ECM is backtracking at 144 hours, its most certainly is amplified and there is no shortwave spoiler in the medium term on this run, cold lovers will be pleased tonight!

As I say, if the UKMO is right, then its more likely the cold will arrive quicker whereas with the GFS its a bit of waiting game for the cold air to come down so hopefully the ECM will back the UKMO again on this when it comes out shortly. For all the talk of the GFS run, I think the UKMO is the better run in the short to medium term, trigger low clears eastwards quicker(Which btw may potentially give snowfall to Southern Scotland/Northern parts of England) and the floodgates open much quicker and the flow looks stronger and more likely colder than the GFS. Where it goes after that is a bit uncertain but it looks a decent Atlantic block there and you would not thought it would go the way of the ECM run.

I think Mucka's post was clearly sarcasm going by the emote he put in but you better get used to posts like that(which are not sarcasm) because people will be expecting these charts to maintain all the way to 0 hours and it does not work out that way. One thing I be looking for in the ECM run is whether it will maintain with this morning's output and what the UKMO is showing in sending that low pressure system at around 96 hours quicker than the GFS therefore opening any floodgates from the North quicker therefore the cold period could well start on Sunday instead of Monday/Tuesday as per the GFS is showing. Then we will see if a shortwave will come into play and ruin things somewhat as per other ECM runs, it will be an interesting run regardless what it shows.

There is actually could be some truth in that as colder air across Scotland/Northern most parts of England will head southwards on Sunday IF the UKMO/ECM(00Z) runs are right however if the GFS is right in making the low more stubborn to head eastwards then it will be a totally different forecast. I am hoping the UKMO is right in the short term as it would open the floodgates quicker and more than likely bring a more potent flow also. Not only that, but as that chart alludes too, there will be a snow risk also with any PPN wrapped around that low. Hopefully this cold can be a bit sustained and it wont end up as a toppler as per some ECM runs(although this mornings is a bit of an improvment), it just be nice to finally have some proper seasonal winter weather of cold days and cold nights with the potential of some snowfall mixed in also.

I'm content with this afternoon runs, re-affirming the trend of it will turn colder and perhaps showing it might last than just a brief toppler which would be good. Detail wise is not something to get too hung up about but around 96 hours, I would still like to hope the UKMO is more accurate in sending that trigger low away quickly as it will open the floodgates quicker to the colder air.

Far too early to be taking about the details just yet but one thing I do like about the ECM run is that it has trended towards the UKMO of moving the trigger low eastwards quicker therefore the start of any cold actually comes sooner than it forecast previously. Still the bug bear of a developing shortwave mind which does affect the output but this particular ECM run does make the most of it. The GFS has no issues with the shortwave but its still sticking to its guns of making that trigger low dragging it heels but we do see the potential results of what an actual ridge to Greenland does. I'm still skeptical on whether we will see a successful ridge into Greenland but I am getting more confident on something colder on the way for potentially at the end of the weekend(if you believe the UKMO/ECM outputs) and into next week.

I also have to add, i'm a bit confused about the talk of the UKMO 144 hour chart never comes to fruition, well of course it does not, no model chart at 144 hours comes to fruition whatever the weather set up, details will change from run to run. Will the UKMO be right in perhaps giving us a bit more of a potent shot or not, that would be my question on this evening outputs, perhaps tomorrow morning runs will tell us.

I think you have unrealistic expectations if you expect the -25 hpa to hit the UK, It has hardly ever happened and with a warming climate, it could become less likely. The Mid Atlantic can get very cold air but only because of the way the jet stream goes which is usually West to East so therefore any frigid air from Cananda/USA is only going to head one way and that is into the Atlantic. the only way the UK will get those sort of upper air temps is from an Easterly and they don't occur all that often(not potent ones anyways) and you wil never get such a severe shot of air from a straight Northerly because of the long sea track to the North of us. I suppose the signs are increasing of perhaps the most widespread coldest shot of the season so far but I think if this was back in late November/early December, people will be more excited/accepting because it would be early in the season but now we are approaching half way, i think people just want too see more than just cold sunny days and frost nights. Still detail will change but as others have said, I be very surprised if we see any meaningful WAA heading into Greenland, once those shortwaves are there, then its a long road back unfortunately but plenty of more runs to come.

With respect, whilst that model may of been consistent in its prediction, please don't give hope to people by saying February may deliver because if it doesn't, somebody on here will say, "I'm fairly confident March will deliver" judging by what this model/teleconnection or whatever is saying. Don't get me wrong, I respect the long term signals and all the various factors that goes behind the weather patterns but I have already read about a prediction earlier on in the season that mid December could be promising for cold lovers and we all know how that turned out! Now I'm hearing maybe mid to the latter part of January may produce the goods and it remains to be seen whether that be the case or not but if it doesn't, then for me and perhaps others, it will be rather tiresome hearing these potential long term predictions which may favour cold weather. On the here and now, the pattern is different to that of December, obviously the NAO being the main obvious one but lets not fool people by saying just because the NH pattern has changed, it means cold weather could be on the way because it does not work like that, seen many NAO type patterns before and the UK can still be stuck in an Atlantic rut and that what it is at the moment and that has not changed from what I can see. However there is the potential WAA up to Greenland but as you can see, it could end up being half hearted attempt and the Northerly as a result is slacker, not as cold and much drier in terms of PPN amounts than it could of been. I have seen it many times before unfortunately however its still quite a long way off without worrying too much about the details.

Not an awful lot of change in the outputs at the moment, pretty much a continuation on what we had in December really except without the Euro heights, it just mean the Atlantic based weather is more average in terms of temperatures and thats it, still no real cold showing on the models. Possibility of a ridge into Greenland is there but I seen this many of a time where the models overplay the ridge and as we get closer to the time and the ridge does not make it and we end up with a half hearted attempt of a Northerly. Unfortunately its a bit of a waiting game in the outputs at the moment

Well to be honest, it turned out a bit laughable that the UK would struggle to even tap into any cold air despite the promising potential that was on offer, although in fairness, there was not really a strong support for an easterly anyways. Despite all the gossip about how things may turn interesting again, the reality is the models are not showing this(although if you look past face value, the charts do hold more promise than December did) at the moment and it seems we are back in the Atlantic rut but with more seasonal temperatures. Yet again though, no real polar shot so temps will hardly be below average so you have to class the output as average to mild at the moment.

I think that is a case of the GFS overblowing up low pressure systems again although it was the first model to forecast what is now storm Frank albeit not in the position it ended up in the end. I think one positive I do find in the output todays is that today runs has suggested more than runs in the past few days of lowering heights in Western Europe and whilst it does not seem to help to bring colder air towards our shores, you would of thought its one step in the right decision. Also the UKMO has Saturday's low slightly further south and a bit more shallower, hopefully its right on that one as it could mean the rainfall will be further southwards aswell.

I think the ECM is a slight improvment from last nights run whilst the UKMO is obviously more of a downgrade. Although I say an easterly is a low chance because of the lack of evidence of supporting an easterly but you can never say never in such a set up like this. As other people have alluded too though, its not a true Scandi high, it will be at the moment then it will start to retreat towards Russia but its influence will still affect Scandinavia which will influence low pressure systems slowing down and trying to head south eastwards for our part of the world. Do seem a bit of a missed opportunity in the early part of the run when we got a true scandi high and if after all this is done with and there is no cold to speak of, I still stand by the fact it be a missed opportunity.

Do find it rather amusing now people are talking about look towards Greenland for a sign of the next cold shot because you know by the time this suppose WAA heads into Greenland and it doesnt turn out as expected, it will be, wait until the end of the month because something will happen by then so on and so forth. Of course I respect signals may point to that but for me, it does not interest me at themoment because as we know, the longer term is very much subject to change and I will never take a GFS FI run seriously so for now, we have to concentrate on the reality and there is potential however it does seem as it always has been in fairness that an easterly in the nearer shorter term does look long odds which is ashame really considering the blocking on offer and the strength of the cold pool, would be a wasted opportunity really.

Detail wise, not a very good 18Z run, seems to be following the ECM trend of perhaps the Atlantic kicking into gear but again, got to be careful not too read too much into the detail side of things because they will vary from run to run. I think the disheartening thing about the model runs at the moment, for all the blocking and what looks like strong blocking, there does not appear to be much in the way of a strong signal to send much cold in from the East, its all rather frustrating in this respect. The other frustrating aspect is the development and trend of a shortwave which splits the high with the strongest part heading into Western Russia and in turn, makes the route to cold looking a lot more harder and complicated. Potential is there but I get tired of saying that when there is not such a strong signal of much in the way of cold weather heading our way.

Got to say, I think the likely hood of any undercutting and easterly flow has backtracked on recent runs, it seems a slight missed opportunity at 96 hours where there is an attempt at an undercut but a rather lame one in fairness when there was a proper scandi block but then after that, the block gets split by a shortwave and it looks a rather complicated way to even get any cold weather from the East from then on in. The more concerning aspect is the potential for yet more persistent rainfall which in this type of situation is quite likely. The only difference is it will be a bit less mild than previously. The only cold that will occur will be this Thursday into Friday, some areas could see an Air frost to start the new year.

I have to admit, won't it be ironic if for all the blocking, the UK does not see any significant cold and that is a real possibility at the moment, I think you can have too much blocking and to be honest, the signal does seem to be moving height rises from Scandi into Western parts of Russia and for Atlantic lows not really undercutting all that well. That said, its a volatile output at this moment and any details in the medium term are definately subject to change. Lots of potential though.

Too me the UKMO looks similar but having said that, be careful of saying its a trend just because a couple of runs are showing that. Got to also be careful of not reading too much into the detail side of things which will vary. The main trends I see is a strong scandi block, atlantic looks like its going to weaken but likely to still affect the UK and potential for an easterly down the line but at this stage, an outside bet. The outlook whichever way does look like it will cool down also with some chillier air coming in from the west.

There does seem to be a trend of shifting everything eastwards although crucially no real signs of the block sinking. Unfortunately I just think the PV is too strong at the moment however further runs will most definatey needed before we know for certain.

Still a huge question mark at just how much the block will affect our weather and many more runs are needed to sort out the detail side of things although again, an easterly still looks the outside bet. Whatever happens, it look like things will cool down somewhat as we head into January with colder air coming in from the West initially looks the more likely scenario.

I think some sort of excitment is understandable but as long as people realise the details of each run will vary then I don't see much issues of people getting carried away. I also don't understand why you saying "something that was never going to happen" - we don't even know whether it will or not! I think its an outside bet at this stage but aslong as you got the blocking there, even if it does not happen straight away, you can't rule out the potential for cold.

One indication which may suggest a westward movement will be how far towards the UK those deep lows get, the further West they are, the indications would be the block is having more of an influence therefore the blocking will be further West. I'm not bothered if the models are showing an easterly yet, all an easterly showing at 180 odd hours will do is raise the hype and people will expect it to stick from run to run where in reality, that will never be the case. I think its more likely there will be some sort of block with some very cold air coming down the eastern side of the high but just how far westwards will that cold get and that sort of detail will continue to vary from run to run. I stand by the fact no run is a bad run as long as they don't sink any block(like yesterday's GFS12Z run did to an extent) so for me this mornings ECM run is a decent run because it does not do this even if it doesnt show what we want too see. This afternoon runs will be interesting but certainly not critical because many more runs will be needed. I still say the easterly is an outside bet at this stage but can't be discounted.