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Geordiesnow

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Everything posted by Geordiesnow

  1. Geordiesnow
    Just seen a flash from this storm, looks like it will just miss me to my west but constant rumbles.
  2. Geordiesnow
    Can hear rumbling also but I have a feeling it will skirt by me to my West although these small storms can be a little unpredictable. Not going to complain much after seeing today's storm though!
  3. Geordiesnow
    And this shows why caution is needed as the breakdown of the heat may not turn out as thundery as the weather charts on paper would seem to suggest however I be very surprised if there is no storms about, just how widespread and severe they be is always open to a lot of doubt.
  4. Geordiesnow
    Estofex also likes to exagerate the potential aswell at times but nevertheless as you rightly say, don't take it as gospel. The BBC does show some good potential for Scotland with some bright echos on their PPN charts around Edinburgh for tomorrow night but as per ever, its a wait and see what happens type of thing.
  5. Geordiesnow
    What about 850 temps over open water in the Arctic ocean, surely upper air temps of those intensity will warm the open water areas even more therefore melting from underneath the ice will then occur. Then you got the unfavorable wind direction and the strength of the wind also which should start pushing the ice away from the coast. still, looking at the upcoming set ups, they do look quite concerning and there is the potential for quite a sharp drop in extent as we head into the first 7-10 days in July.
  6. Geordiesnow
    However 850 temps are read and how that reflects the ground temps, there is now a definate trend the first week of July could be a major change from the fairly cool June, I do feel those on Nevan's forum do like to exagerate as they are eagar for the Arctic to completely melt but you can't deny the weather set ups for later on this week could potentially cause a lot of damage and melting to the ice on the Pacfic side of the Arctic. It does look like this set up will happen in some capacity now after the ECM has hinted this a while back but never came towards the short term however it is now in the 96 hours range and there is firm support from the other models. The obvious question will be, how long will these very warm southerlies into the Pacific last for and how will this affect the SST's in what is an already Chuckchi sea. Conversely the Atlantic side of the Arctic looks rather cold but unfortunately the cold air is over the more open waters of the Beaufort and Kara Seas rather than say the North Pole itself. Coupled with the Baffin and Hudson Bay are due to melt(although with the latter, it may still be a short while as conditions still look fairly cool and cloudy here for a while) then we could see some quite large drops during the early part of July.
  7. Geordiesnow
    I think the question we have regarding how high the temps will go is how sunny will this set up be? The BBC charts suggests quite a sunny set up but we seen before how thick high cloud can come up from the continent and not only that its also how much cloud will develop during the daylight hours in particular. Certainly looking forward too see how this will develop and how the models handle the potential 2nd plume also.
  8. Geordiesnow
    Some minor changes from what I can see, there has been some eastward movement so unfortunately for Northern Ireland, its nearly getting to the point of what is the fuss about in terms of heat and the potential for the thundery low to make it presence felt has moved forward. In terms of how far North and West the heat gets is still open to doubt and whether or not after the projected thundery low coming up from the South we see a re-load is a major uncertainty
  9. Geordiesnow
    Heatwave in Siberia/Chuckchi sea aside, the weather conditions have been better for the sea ice in recent times but the ECM has now continually forecast for a strong high to develop and the potential for quite a deep low on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. Admittedly this prediction has largely remained in the 144 hour range but there is perhaps some hints its getting into the more reliable timeframe now. Its one too watch for sure.
  10. Geordiesnow
    Well the BBC graphics have notched the temps up by 2C when they are showing the fact it could reach 24C in Northern Scotland and 32C in Southern England so an upgrade there, be interesting too see what they say tomorrow if they show the same graphics. How much cloud there will be will also determine how high the temps will go, especially low cloud of course but thick high cloud can also influence temps by a degree or two.
  11. Geordiesnow
    I don't think the post is right either however devil is still in the detail and the trigger low which helps to form the ridge and helps to eject the heat northwards is one of those tricky shallow low pressure systems which are going to be hard for the models to deal with. I do feel things are going to warm up but will it get to the 'hot' stage and how long will it last for? The 'downgrade' will come from the timing of any hot/humid air(e.g the low heads towards the UK than the models are thinking) and/or just how much heat actually gets pumped up. Still a little uncertain on the final orientation of the high and low pressure systems but the trend does suggest a SSE'LY/SE'ly wind is likely so the further West you are, the hotter it likely to be.
  12. Geordiesnow
    I'd like to think so but I just can't see it, just look at those SST's around the Chukchi Sea resulting from the hot spell that has experienced, look at how thin the ice is in the East Siberian Sea also, IF the HYCOM model is accurate then the sea ice imo looks in quite a bit of trouble, especially with melt ponds apparently being quite widespread on the Pacific side of the Arctic. Havant looked at the HYCOM model for a while but I was shocked too see how thin the ice looks especially seeing as its only the 23rd June, the next 30-40 days could tell us a lot about where this melt season could end up, it certainly is interesting for sure. The weather conditions in the next few days or so does look better for the Sea ice but there has been hints from the models of another warm spell coming in from Siberia and that could well be a big blow to the Sea ice however the models have been a bit wayward regarding the details of this with some runs looking quite severe and others much less so.
  13. Geordiesnow
    Although you got to be careful when looking at 850 temps, the fact is, if you get high temperatures and winds blowing off the landmasses and in particular strong winds, then it will cause the ice to retreat from the coast and for the open water to 'warm' up. Got to say the low pressure system has certainly got interesting, since i last checked, the models have deepened it somewhat and it could be a bit longer lasting, maybe some good news is that whilst it does attract milder air, it does have some colder air mixed in so could heavy snowfall help the ice? On the other hand, the strong winds could start to weaken the ice and then there is the warmth coming in from Russia and right towards Laptev. For some of the more knowledgable members, how come sea ice Area is falling quite steady yet extent is falling much quicker and we are the lowest on record? Is it due to the high concentrations?
  14. Geordiesnow
    There is perhaps little doubt the ice alongside Franz Joseph Island(think thats what it called) is now very vulnable to melting with mainly from the unusually warm conditions and the fact the ice has now fragmented away from the pack. In terms of the low's impact, the models are still a little uncertain on how strong it will be(GFS does have quite a deep low, similar to 2012 but the GFS tends to over power low pressure systems) although all the models agree the western half of the low will have strongest of the winds which is not good news for the ice heading out into the fram stright. I think the most noticetable thing about this low is the size of it, you like to hope that with colder air attached to this low, the impacts on the ice won't be as severe than say if a low has quite a lot of warm air wrapped around it. That said, warm air does eventually head into Laptev and with winds coming from the landmass, then ice pushing away from the Russian coastline would be quite likely. It will also be interesting how the cold start to June for Beaufort will impact the ice here, wind direction has also been favorable to perhaps close that open water gap somewhat just like in 2011.
  15. Geordiesnow
    Some interest coming up potentially with quite a large(but not too overly deep) low perhaps heading into Barants sea which seems to have the perfect wind direction for ice too get flushed out the fram stright followed by trends of the first significant warm up in Laptev. Still time for change but 2 potential weather set ups which on paper would not be good news for the sea ice. The warm up in Laptev coupled with winds coming off the Russian landmass will no doubt help to form a pollyna which after previous years is a bit slower this year. Still a little way off but recent trends do seem to suggest the western half of the Arctic will be "colder" than in recent times whilst the Eastern half will see its first significant blast of warm air. Better news is that Beaufort has cooled down but it is remarkable just how similar the set ups have been to 2011, the sea ice shape is also looking similar at the moment and it does look more than likely as with 2011/12 the sea ice in the Kara Sea will of melted out sometime in the early part of June. Be also interesting too see how long it will take for the ice to melt in Hudson Bay, despite the large amount of open water, thicker ice has been concentrated so may be more resistant to any warmth?
  16. Geordiesnow
    Although the outlook looks unsettled, there is no real trend of any stalling lows, it does seem to be one low then a brief calming moment followed by another look but as its been with this month, it will be how much below average the temps will be. That said, its still not all that unusual too see this type of weather in late May and sometimes early June can be a slow burner to summer Compare and contrast our temps to those that is forecast in Russia, once again well above average temperatures there is the potential we could even see temps of upto 30C on the Arctic coastline!
  17. Geordiesnow
    Although the melt season is still reletively young, I think this year could really be the year that could break the record by just looking at the weather set ups and the state of the ice is in already. However, at times the weather can and does balance itself out so although its more hope, if we do get something more favorable, then we may finish higher but I feel it will just be below 2007. If we get a 2007 style summer then 2012 could well be challenged but all ready, there is a lot of cause for concern.
  18. Geordiesnow
    I like to be more positive but there is no hiding from the fact that on paper, the outlook looks awful for the sea ice, as i mentioned a few times, 2011 is probably the only other May which saw the extremes of early warmth entering the basin, if you compare the set ups between this year and last, then 2014 looks much colder with the exception of Laptev where this year has been cooler. No real change to the forecasts either with little to no sign of this high breaking down, and some models still show the extreme(for the time of year) Russian heat which could hit the Kara Sea, UKMO has this set up perfectly whilst the ECM does not. Any good news? Beaufort may get a little bit colder and winds are forecasts to come off the basin than the landmass, but still a few days off. Of course the patterns could change and the rest of summer could be quite cool but this early season warmth could counteract that unfortunately, last year was the opposite in that for the first part of the season, it was fairly cool but then August came along and things warmed up quite rapidly however the extent still finished in a respectable position in the end.
  19. Geordiesnow
    The heat that is projected and that has occured this month is just incredible, okay, it has been cool across the poles and the Eastern half of the Arctic and parts of Barants too but its a very rare event too see such widespread warmth entering the basin like it has done even as early as mid May! The weather patterns are still look awful to say the least, not only high pressure could well dominate the Arctic, there is a risk(and that all it is at this point) of some potentially major warmth hitting the Kara sea from mainland Russia. We are definately seeing GW's 2007 perfect storm set ups here and we are not even in the summer months yet!
  20. Geordiesnow
    Looks like its happening too me and its happening right now, its been way way above average across the Western half of the Arctic with Beaufort melting much earlier than normal, current forecasts still look rather poor it must be said, slight hints Beaufort may cool down but that is a long way off and we seen the hints before only for them to back down. Also it looks like we may start seeing the formation of the "laptev bite" appearing anytime soon with the HYCOM model showing potential open water appearing here. Compare the weather to this may to last may and it could not be any more different, yes there was less 'heat' over the Eastern Siberian Sea/Laptev but it was also much colder over Beaufort and most parts of the arctic also.
  21. Geordiesnow
    There is a large area of open water over Beaufort and little wonder with how warm its been there and plus there been days with strong off shore winds also which pushes ice away from the land, the same situation also happened in Hudson Bay aswell. Only 2011 had a similar set up but then a major cool down occured in Beaufort near the end of month, the models are certainly not hinting this could be the case this year and you have to say the current weather patterns are very 2007 like and are very concerning but interesting to say the least. The concentration figures will vary and should not be taken too literally at this moment in time but unless there is a major pattern change, then I really could see 2015 being lowest on record for most of the summer because the ice on the Atlantic side of the Arctic does not look in great nick either with the ice in the Kara sea looking very vulnable to melting.
  22. Geordiesnow
    The ice looks in a very poor state and I really do think the odds of a record melt is gaining a lot of mormentum, even if we don't get a record low, even at this early stage and just looking at the potential forecoming weather patterns, it is very possible we may see a record low for a large chunk of the melt season. With the exception of 2011, I don't think there is any other years which has seen so much 'heat' entering the basin on this scale and for this long at this time of year, the models was hinting at a potential breakdown but now they are agreeing things could still 'warm' up even more. For folks who wants too see all the ice to melt away, this is a very good start, we got mild/warm air in most places, Beaufort, Barants are all projected to 'warm' up and I do fear we could be seeing some quite ugly extent figures, this May is chalk and cheese to the last 2 Mays which were mostly cold on the whole. Even if extent figures don't show it, melt ponding could be quite extensive indeed, especially on the Pacific side of the basin. I do feel the storm of 2012 did play a part in the final extent figure for 2012 in respect how low it got but it was heading to a near/record low anyways as the ice during that summer was also very poor. That year also saw very early ice retreat in Beaufort and Kara which could be the case this year so a lot of similarities all ready and one could argue the weather this May is even worse than it was then!
  23. Geordiesnow
    It will hopefully help to buckle the jet stream Northwards as the models are at the moment hinting at in the medium term. Despite some BBC forecasters coming across as a bit impatient of some summery weather, you got to say the weather patterns are quite normal for Mid May, I'm looking forward at the potential of some convective weather to start the week and possibly by the end of the week, something a bit drier.
  24. Geordiesnow
    Do you mean globally or just the UK? In terms of the UK, we have been through some quite noticeable warmth for the time of year during this Spring but it also been quite cool at times, quite variable its fair to say! No real signs of a true Greenland high developing and the models are slightly hinting the jet stream may start heading northwards in the medium term but that is still a bit way off at the moment.
  25. Geordiesnow
    However you get the positive feedback of less sea ice leads to less sea ice, somewhere like Hudson Bay may not make much difference but Beaufort will and of course the high temps will start to 'warm' the SST's up which may have an impact later on in the melt season. A closer look at the charts suggests it won't be constant warmth as winds do back off and so does the heat but its only fleeting and there is a strong forecast across the models of frequent off shore winds and quite strong off shore winds also potentially. And yes around the poles, it is below average and that is where the PV is currently situated, in fairness, I much rather the PV to be more serparated across the Arctic rather than more or less concentrated in one area. Interesting times ahead and exactly how long this pattern will last for, sometimes the models can persist with such patterns for longer than it actually is but I been looking at a lot of model runs for quite a number of days and whilst there may be some variation, the main theme does seem high temps in the Western Arctic and low temps in the Eastern half of the Arctic although there has not been too strong of a hint of a dipole pattern as of yet.
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