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Geordiesnow

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  1. Geordiesnow
    I always find that you can read countless long range forecasts all you like and try and get an idea what the summer will be like but at the end of the day, its what the models in the short-medium term shows is what will determine our summer will be like, not what each long range forecaster thinks what might happen. Don't get me wrong, I got respect for people doing long range forecasts and in the most part, they are not just guesses, there is the scientific element that goes into it but personally, I would not always read too much into them. As a general rule of thumb, you don't want too see any "true" Greenland highs during the summer months(So basically you don't want too see warm air being pumped into Greenland) as this can lead the jet stream to head south and over us giving those summer washout days. Its too early to say what will happen but I am hoping for a warm and dry summer to dominate, I also like too see more in the way of thundery breakdowns from the South also but as per ever, its a wait and see type of situation.
  2. Geordiesnow
    I don't want to exagerate here but with the exception of 2011, this must be possibly be the worst ever weather pattern the Arctic could ever have for this time of year if it wants to survive during the summer, no real signs of the heat in Beaufort going, Kara sea is warmer than average and so is Hudson Bay and all 3 areas look very vulnerable to melting now. Of course the weather patterns could very well change but even at this early stage, the odds are favoring that we won't be as high as 2013/14 and that at least for the first part of the melt season we could be looking at record breaking lows. The small but tightly packed high pressure over Beaufort is just the starter before the main course of that heat from the landmasses rolling in. One thing 2011 did have after the intense heat coming in from Alaska is that the weather conditions turned much colder and winds was coming from the Arctic which helped to close the open water somewhat, there is certainly no signs of that this year as of yet. Of course, warm spells entering the Arctic does happen, however happening in the middle of May and to this intensity is most certainly not normal. If there is some crumbs of comfort is that the weather patterns are forecast to be reletively slack(from what I know, you don't really want too see small tightly packed lows forming over thin ice which could lead too the ice fragmenting and be more vulnable to melting) and that Laptev still looks like it will remain fairly cold for the timebeing so possibly delaying any real formation of the "laptev bite" unlike last year where it did form early and formed in an unusual manor.
  3. Geordiesnow
    The warmest of the air does look reserved for Beaufort in the main part only but the worry for me is that weather conditions here have been pretty poor for sea ice retention and it looks likely an area of high pressure will head through Alaska towards the Canadian Arctic islands which will help bring the warmer air and have winds blowing strongly off the land which could potentially increase the large open water. Laptev at least looks like it will remain cold and there is no real sign of having that unusually polynya developing near those islands like was the case last year however the ice is thin here so it would not take much warmth and unfavorable wind direction for this to change. As per ever, the weather patterns are subject to change but the trend does seem to be clear of high pressure and warmth near Beaufort and low pressure and colder conditions near Laptev and we all know this means dipole conditions which is not good news for the ice.
  4. Geordiesnow
    Yet I'm seeing weather patterns that looks like we could be heading into favorable melt with a potential dipole setting up and what strikes me so far this month is just how warm the landmasses are already. I mean 3 places with sea ice cover are looking likely to warm up, that is Beaufort, Kara and Hudson Bay. Beaufort looks the most concerning too me, potentially unfavorable wind direction, warmth and sunshine and the ice there is looking rather fragile with open water already appearing here, I would not be surprised too see a large polynya appearing here, just like in 2012, conditions look awful here to say the least in the forseeable future although as we know weather patterns can change. Recent models runs have shown the warmth backing away from Kara but there is no escape of some warm uppers arriving here at least for a short while and its perhaps not that unusual too see Hudson Bay getting a few warm spells mixed in with colder shots afterwards. The current set ups reminds me of 2011 which saw a massive warm spell coming in from Alaska and by the end of the month, all the landmasses were well above average with very little polar air on the landmasses, this is going to be a big test for the ice I feel and I can see potentially a record low for this month as things stand.
  5. Geordiesnow
    Volume appears to be similar to 2007 and we know what happened then and as far as I am aware of, thicknesses was greater in 2007 than it is now. As ever, a lot of it will be down to the weather and we are seeing potentially quite an early blast of "heat" heading into the Beaufort Sea area where ice recently has started drifted away from the coast so we may see open water here quite early in the season similar to 2012. The ice in Laptev looks thin but it looks like conditions are remaining on the cold side here and we are going too see quite early mild air heading into the Kara Sea also where the ice here has been taking quite a bit of a beating from recent weather conditions. I just got a feeling we may break 2012's record low, maybe more concerningly, we could be on a record low for the vast majority of the summer?
  6. Geordiesnow
    You have said that for the last few years GW! 2013 came close but I do feel especially these days, an ice free pole could indeed happen via the Atlantic side of the Arctic instead of the pacific side! Whether it will happen this year remains to be seen but whilst this years extent is low, we are still only talking about the outer edges ice at this moment in time. Looks like things are going to turn very quiet weather wise across the Arctic with a slack flow developing with pressure fairly high, but perhaps crucially a cold high, its too early too determine how long this pattern will last for but its probably a pattern you hope too see(for sea ice retention) in late Spring, a cold slack high with no hints of a late spring deep low pressure system being forecast. Perhaps an interest developing in the medium term of quite warm air to hit the Kara Sea which may lead to open water near the coast of Russia to be even more extensive than it is at the moment!
  7. Geordiesnow
    In terms of the Bering sea, in the last few weeks, its been the longest period with winds coming from the Arctic with some cold air hence melting here has barely changed. In terms of the Barents sea, all depends on wind direction really, wind direction will be turning Northerly again which may increase extent slightly but looks like will result ice exiting through the fram stright. BFTV mentioned this on Neven's forum and it does look like a west based NAO will happen so it will be interesting how this will affect the ice thicknesses, it will help to shift some of that thicker ice away from Beaufort but with milder air, it could also fragment it and we may also start seeing open water appearing here like we did in 2008/12 especially if this set up persists or we getting persistent off shore winds in this area.
  8. Geordiesnow
    I think in general the cloud amounts should lessen but I would not be surprised if we see more sunshine than forecast for some places like today for example, its all a bit hit and miss really but as the high edges Eastwards, drawing up drier air should help increase the sunshine amounts. How quickly the high breaks down will be open to a lot of doubt, the ECM could suggest than first thought but more runs are required on this.
  9. Geordiesnow
    Just had a moderate-heavy hail shower, seeing the dark band of cloud I kind of expected it to be quite torrential in truth but the heaviest pulse must of just missed me. Still interesting nonetheless. No snowflakes to report though sadly but I do enjoy these proper sunshine and shower set ups!
  10. Geordiesnow
    I agree to an extent with that but with the Bering having so little ice this winter and very few cold plunges then no doubt because of weather and perhaps other factors, the SST's here do look above average which may have a negative feedback to the sea ice later on in the melt season. Some rather interesting synotopics coming up with high pressure forecast across the centre of the Arctic. It will help too keep the central basin quite cold and with the winds going clockwise around high pressure, it may help to kick the Beaufort Gyre into gear and get some of that thick ice away Beaufort and more towards the Central Arctic and the Chuckchi sea where ice thicknesses look quite poor. It will help to keep winds in Laptev towards a favorable direction and may allow ice to thicken somewhat here. There is also the other interesting but potentially concerning set up of high pressure developing over Russia with low pressure over the Norwegian sea helping to create a Southerly/SE'ly winds over Barents and Kara Seas with winds then heading right into the fram stright and this pattern looks like it could stick around for a good while, it could potentially leave Barents looking quite vulnable as we head into the melt season and it could lead to the ice edge being quite far North which will have an impact on extent figures. Its one area to watch very closely for sure, I don't think the set up will affect the ice in Kara too badly(unless polynyas start to form on the Russian coastline) due to temps on land especially at night will be quite cold despite the fairly high upper air temps, if this set up occured around 1 and a half months later or during the summer season, then the ice in the Kara sea would no doubt melt quite rapidly despite ice being fairly thick here. Edit: Quick question, are the snow cover charts on CT not updating? Looking from the start of March to now, snowcover looks exactly the same yet looking on another site, the snowline in the western states look further North than CT.
  11. Geordiesnow
    Expect another drop in tomorrows update but I do feel as we go through next week, extent could increase a fair bit but its just masking I feel what looks like quite a vulnerable ice pack. There is a good chance of a record breaking extent I feel, especially if we the conditions that are favorable for melt, still got me concerns just how thin the ice looks in the Laptev sea and there is still no real improvment to weather conditions here, only saving grace is that its still March and not May otherwise those strong off shore winds could start producing a large polynya here. Ice thicknesses to me still look pretty poor and once again, more thick is in the vulnable melting place of the Beaufort sea, I still stand by last August has done huge damage to the ice pack, a lot of thick ice was lost during those 2007 type set ups.
  12. Geordiesnow
    I'm concerned, although if extent was the lowest on record and it was only just below other years I be less concerned as no doubt the pacific regions will be largely the reason why this is the case however the Atlantic side of the Arctic has been taking a hammering lately and in all honesty, things don't look great in the near future either and unless we get some NW'ly winds over the Barents Sea then starting with a low extent here is not good news at all. Concerned about the state of the ice over the Laptev sea also, its once again quite thin and you can see from the HYCOM model that a polyna forming in a similar position to last year could indeed happen and the weather conditions here look awful still with winds blowing in from Siberia which pushes ice away from the Coasts. This must be one of the worse ever early spring set ups we have seen and its not over by any means yet, models have been hinting at the possibilty of yet another deep low heading near the Laptev Sea and things are not helped at all by the unusually strong Scandi high. Ice thicknesses look poorer than last year over the East Siberian sea also and I believe that 3 week period in August last year which bought 2007 style conditions have done a lot more damage than a lot of people think, a lot of thick ice was melted during that period after conditions earlier in the summer which was quite favorable for ice retention. I really believe there is a high chance of an record low extent this year and its not just because of the low winter maximum also.
  13. Geordiesnow
    Do have to bear in mind about how much higher extent was in 2012 in respect ithatthe Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk which the latter has no effect on where the final extent will end up but on the face of it, it looks concerning. The state of how the ice might end up in the Laptev sea really does concern me, I really do think even at this early stage, a record melt is quite likely.
  14. Geordiesnow
    And with the set ups the models are showing then things could look rather ugly indeed in terms of extent because no doubt the Atlantic side of the Arctic will drop in extent with these Southerlies, models are hinting colder air will return eventually but that is not my main concern. My concern is regarding the ice in Laptev and with the models in agreement of very strong off shore winds developing(blowing from Siberia rather the Arctic landmass instead) then this will push the ice inland leaving the ice in the laptev even weaker which in turn could risk lead to yet another early polynya opening up... The way things are going and looking at the thicknesses in the ice in this area I think there is a good chance we could see a polynya during the later parts of April and perhaps in a similar position to last year also. The extent figures can be a bit mis-leading at this time of year and I have not been too fussed by them but this is the first time I'm starting to think that the Arctic is in quite a vulnable state and a record melt is increasing. High SST's across Bering, thin ice across Laptev which more than likely will get even thinner when those strong off shore winds arrive. Interesting but quite concerning times.
  15. Geordiesnow
    It looks like the Atlantic side of the Arctic will warm rapidly whilst the pacific side is trending to be more colder although the Bering Sea will see very little of this cold, uncertainty just how long and how much of a southerly feed will reach the Arctic itself mind. At least the wind direction is more favorable in the laptev sea and should be until the end of the month, signs we may see off shore winds again which is not what we want too see at all as we head into the Spring months however.
  16. Geordiesnow
    Chilly day here even though from indoors, it looked springlike. For me, today was not springlike, you need slightly higher temps and you definately need higher dew points for it too "feel" springlike. It only looked springlike with the sun higher in the sky and the largely cloudless skies we had today. Forecasts have in general overestimated cloud amounts and I would not be too surprised if this will be the case in the next few days, there is no fronts trapped underneath this high so any cloud will be the low cloud/stratuscumulus type and as john Hammond been trying to emphasize on the forecasts, its uncertain to pin point how much cloud there actually will be.
  17. Geordiesnow
    It does not matter what we experienced in the past, the fact would still remain this cold spell was disappointing snow wise for the NE, the Friday night snowfall was good but sadly the rain washed most of it away by morning and that summed this spell up, just never was good enough. Night time minimum were pretty low at times although I did not see too much in the way of white frost(dew points being much lower than the air temp was the reason why little white frost was seen on Monday morning), it was all rather unremarkable and frustrating. The only impressive thing was how long the below average temps lasted for but wind direction and PPN did not favor us at all.
  18. Geordiesnow
    I remember Feb 2008 having contrasts with a similar looking set up, I think it was about 13-15C by day but frost and fog(for some) by night, it was an interesting set up for sure. No it won't occur next week as the upper air temps are not forecast to be as mild as it was then and we don't know at this stage how clear the high will be but one thing for sure, a very strong trend for very little rainfall to come. The uncertainty is how much clearer weather we get from that cold plunge that will miss us, I suspect we may get a little bit of clearer weather before cloud once again topples in.
  19. Geordiesnow
    Did you miss the heavy snow we had on Friday night into Saturday Morning? It was quite a good hour of heavy snow(albeit it looked wet at times seeing as it did not look as much accumulated as it should) after a very slow start, shame after that, it was either sleet or rain which was melting the lying snow that did accumulate.
  20. Geordiesnow
    Nothing to do with the slackness of the flow, I suspect less instability, lower SST's and the fact the air is not especially cold(Remember the greater the sea temp and air temp are, the more convection you get aslong the instability/lapse rates are high enough) are factors why they don't seem to be many showers around. That said, I did expected too see a bit more on the radar than we do at the moment, been the story of the cold spell, I've barely seen any big lumps of showers in NE Scotland in the last few days either, strange. See what the radar looks like in a couple of hours but pressure is building all the time.
  21. Geordiesnow
    I guess I missed nothing then... Thank goodness facebook exists.
  22. Geordiesnow
    Its one of those nights where somewhere could get quite a bit of snow whilst 5 miles down the road gets nothing at all, they really are that localised these showers. I think parts of Teesside could do quite well especially as the land sticks out a bit, be localised no doubt but some potential for sure.
  23. Geordiesnow
    Just shows how localised the showers are when I got nothing here yet Washington got snowfall. The slow nature of the showers coupled with the low dewpoints and dry ground could mean that there could be some surprises by morning time. Any snowfall tonight for me would be a bonus, still think tomorrow evening/night into Wednesday got some potential mind aslong as the winds stays off shore.
  24. Geordiesnow
    I don't know what you mean, the cold feed will be cut off by Thursday, high pressure will be near/over the UK by the end of the week but temps will struggle to climb. That said, in terms of the length, we can't complain about this spell of weather, as for snow amounts, then that is a different story. I also suspect it will be an increasing cloudy high as Atlantic air with its cloud will topple in, best of the breaks will be for Southern areas for sure.
  25. Geordiesnow
    The mild sector was well known to occur though and it was always marginal, the annoying part was the PPN kept on fizzling out as it approached this region and had it occured when conditions were still okay for snowfall, then we may of seen snowfall last night. Tonight and tomorrow night will be about just how low the temps will go, should be a hard frost for most so we may see some white stuff in terms of frost! Tuesday and into Wednesday is really our last chance of snowfall from this cold period.
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