Geordiesnow

18Z has moved away from the GFS12Z option which is no surprise and it does look similar to the ECM and UKMO, not as cold as those 2 models so any frontal snow will be more marginal. Got to say its ashame how this is turning out and it does look like it will be the hard frosts and foggy mornings that will be more of a feature than snowfall... Monday and Tuesday morning could be very cold indeed. As for the longer term, there is a signal for the cold to break down although with some sort of height rises to our NE, you can't rule out an easterly but it seems an unlikely scenario at the moment.

Upper and lower ground winds are not the strongest so it will continue to be a struggle and I personally not expecting anything really. That said, I also would not be too surprised if there is evidence of a snow shower passing overnight ether as its only takes one rogue shower to produce a dusting if the air and ground temps are cold enough of course.

Details will change though so I would not take the graphics too literally but the potential is there for sure ECM is pretty good for the Northerly, shows it more Northerly/NNE'ly even at 72 hours but its a case of watching and wait and see what occurs.

Interesting forecast from Louise Lear, pressure chart shows 2 front within the Northerly flow and you saw a glimpse of the more detail graphics which showed quite a large blob of white heading southwards during Sunday but with the Southern bias in the forecasts in these situations unfortunately we focus right on southern parts on their potential of some wet snow on higher ground so could not see what other PPN there may be for Sunday. Believe it or not, Sunday could be our best chance out of this.

Must admit, I never expected to easterly to vanish just like that although as I mentioned yesterday, I had my doubts whether it was cold enough or not(was probably cold enough for sleet/snow but lying snow?) however its still disappointing just how much the models have trended away from the easterly. So its relying on frontal snow for the most part it seems and I really would not get all worked up regarding detail of this just yet, it will vary no doubt for sure.

Really can't believe when I saw the models this morning, what a downgrade but that was always a risk in this set up that things either flatten too quickly or the low won't sink southwards. Although the Easterly never looked mouthwatering(with the uppers on offer, i was doubtful on lying snow at lower levels) i probably would take that instead what is on offer at the moment. Even the Northerly has toned down to an extent again and the PPN over us that is being modelled is from a front and as it does look marginal. Can only hope the off shore winds will help us to make any PPN of snow.

Looks quite marginal but it is early to talk about the finer detail on this. I believe your location is more elevated and further inland so you could be okay. Imo, its not a mouthwatering easterly in terms of strength but as we see with the Northerly any small changes could lead to an upgrade in the upper air temperatures, can only hope so.

Yes they are more than fine when you have an off shore wind(e.g winds blowing from the land) but when they are coming in from the sea, they are marginal uppers especially when you are quite close to the coast.

Deep freeze for me is when you see more widespread of -10hpa like we are now seeing with the Northerly but each to their own on that one. With winds coming in from the sea, then from experience tells me uppers of -6 to -8 is quite marginal but the details are subject to change anyways Edit: Too illistrate my point to WiB, at 144 hours the uppers are around -6 with a strong wind off the sea and despite being PPN being over Northern areas, the GFS temp shows 3C! Now he's living on the East Coast maybe he will get to realise that uppers like that are quite marginal especially if your close to the coast.

However the Northerly is being toned up in terms of cold since yesterday so that will help in sqeezing that "mild" sector. Regarding the Northerly, it would certainly hold more potential if the Northerly was more NNE'ly than NNW'ly which is the case at the moment, not much time for the orientation to change either but as you can see, there is sometimes some small upgrades in terms of cold.

Its good too see the Northerly being upgraded somewhat in terms of cold however its a Northerly that still looks more NNW'ly which is frustrating as it reduces the shower potential. It only needs a slight shift in orientation but time is running out on any subtle changes!

I think TETIS mentioned yesterday that the easterly being forecast does not look like a "classic" one and I have to concur with that to an extent, never looks like its going to be a particularly cold one(e.g -10hpa not making an appearance) and I think some eastern coastal areas may be dissapointed with the ECM 144 hour chart because the uppers are very marginal to say the least. That said details will no doubt change and there is still uncertainty how the slider low will act so still a lot to play for.

some better news potentially on this mornings runs in respect to the Northerly, it shows the flow more Northerly/NNE'ly again which of course will favor this region, its messy though so I would not pin point too much in terms of detail.

But the snow did stick though in some areas especially in Ireland/Northern Ireland and SW Scotland, the difference will be any snow that does lie is likely to stick around for a little while with cold day time maximums and potentially some very cold night time minimums especially when we get into the messy slack flow the models are indicating.

Yes I suppose the cold coming up will be the most prolonged but you would think from some members on here and the BBC forecasters that the winter has seen nothing in the way of cold weather at all. The -5hpa has entered the UK many of the time but unfortunately due to it coming from the Atlantic it is more modified but our scottish members in particular has experienced some snowfall so far, we have seen frosts also and also some below average maximums. Of course we have seen our milder moments also with that exceptionally mild evening quite recently. I for one has found this winter so far quite interesting in terms of the up and down nature of the temperatures, strength of the wind at times coupled with some quieter frosty weather at times. Still another half of winter too come, I am hoping for some snowfall and a more widespread snow events and for the -10hpa to actually hit the UK widely!

Yes however the models seem to hint the winds may be a bit too NNW'ly which means most places apart from the coastal strip itself will stay dry. Still time for slight adjustments for it to become slightly more northerly or even NNE'ly as has been hinted but the agreement is solid on a more NNW'ly. Uppers are not fantastic, quite marginal but I want too see some convective weather! Hopefully there be some last second adjustments to it increases the shower risk for Sunday. If not, then i suspect overnight frost and freezing fog will be the main issue, especially when the flow becomes slack, we could see quite a severe frost in rural spots especially. I won't mind that as long the convective easterly occurs, I am getting snow starved now!

One encouraging thing for me regarding this set up is that the cold is forecast to come in during Friday and we see the first piece of the jigsaw developing then with some mid atlantic heights so its not like we have to wait for 132 hours for the pattern to change because its changing much before then. The question mark will be, will the 2nd amplified ridge occur as it does now or does it upgrade or downgrade, obviously its encouraging too see the GFS looking like the UKMO and ECM in this respect but as we know, that does not mean its a certainty by any means however its important for some decent amplification to occur to help sink that low that develops to the South of Greenland.

Perhaps the regional thread could be a good place to give an IMBY POV on the models? Do have to say, I think you read far too muc into the ECM, in the later parts of the runs, the 00Z run was showing more of a NW'ly and on the 12Z and its NE'ly! And that what members have to bear in mind regarding any easterly potential, the hints are getting stronger but its by no means a foregone conclusion despite some posts suggesting otherwise. What does look more likely is we will see some cold weather and a brief Northerly which turns into a slack flabby area of low pressure which may in places produce some snow if there is a trough/front mixed in with the slack area of low pressure, if not then I expect frost and freezing fog to be more of a widespread story with any showers reserved for coastal areas exposed to the wind. However pin pointing any sort of detail like that is impossible. What happens after that is uncertain so I think barring any detail changes the outlook to Sunday looks fairly clear cut.

You can't compare the 2 runs though because they are different in how they are dealing with the slider, the GFS looks quite risky too me whilst the ECM is the more 'safe' option. I have not seen any trends of a west based NAO either and positioning on any potential slider low will be open to quite a bit of doubt but this is part of the drama of model watching because no 2 runs will be exactly the same.

Got to say the GFS has been spot on regarding the intensity of this low pressure system whilstthe ECM has forecasted a much shallower feature until more nearer the time. The UKMO has not been too bad either mind, not as deep as the GFS though. I think tomorrow morning will see the strongest winds from this system crossing Northern Ireland/SW Scotland/NW England which then later transfer to Southern Scotland and North East England but not to the same intensity and then it be Northern Scotland turn although again not to the same intensity as gusts that could be recorded across Northern Ireland, SW Scotland and NW England. No doubt the band of showers that is forecast will contain the strongest gusts during tomorrow morning. I would not rule out a 80mph gust either, especially in a coastal location.

I don't agree with that in all honesty however I do feel people are guilty of looking at the charts and thinking they are more snowy than they actually are. The set up we just had was more promising but just the wrong wind direction, these flabby low pressure set ups tend to lead to coastal showers and a lot of crisp winter sunshine, its only when troughs and any weather fronts are mixed in these set ups can become interesting. It is very hard to pin point detail but at this moment in time, I think frost and freezing fog is more of a risk than snowfall for our region for now. However if that Northerly flow can become a bit more North/NNE'ly then there is a window and a risk of some coastal showers which may be cold enough for snow. Its a set up that I'm not wetting myself in terms of excitment but if the slider low does goes to plan and does not get stuck over us then the potential easterly may bring more potential in terms of snowfall!

But better amplification on this run, much prefer tonights 144 hour chart to yesterdays 168 hour chart. That is all detail though and we all know what happens when you read too much into the detail of each run! I don't think there is too many complaints for cold weather fans tonight, as for snowfall then maybe that is a different story, very hard to pinpoint at this range and under such a slack set up!

One run is a trend? ECM is a decent run thus far if your looking for the overall picture of cold air returning and a slight northerly flow developing with the the possibility of a slider. Of course if your looking at the detail then no doubt some people may not like the 144 hour chart but for me, its alright and the cold may soon return.

What happens after the weekend remains a big question mark but it looks likely it will remain on the cold side up to the weekend, nothing desprately cold(the -10hpa is not forecast) but cold enough for snow too fall at times. The detail is important, it looks a bit messy but we see the UKMO/GFS going for a more stright Northerly/NNE'ly whereas the ECM is more NNW'ly but there is solid agreement on this. It would be good too see the -10hpa finally enter the UK at some point, that is for me proper cold air especially if its from a Northerly source.

In general the showers tend to fade as they reach the East Coast which is frustrating as it when it approches it looks good but then once it hits and leaves you, its much more faded and all is left is some cloud. The uppers are not all that cold in all honesty but flow is quite unstable but there could be some evidence of snow falling here by the morning but by the same token, they might not. Radar could be a little unpredictable as the showers will randomly develop and then head NE'wards but I don't expect vast amount of shower activity but you never know.