Geordiesnow

So what is your meaning of "meaningful snow on the ground" then? Just so we know where to avoid tomorrow morning. Still a hard radar to judge, upper air winds are no doubt going to veer shortly so as i say, its perfect conditions for a streamer type to set up but it could also be frustrating if winds are going to keep any shower activity off shore.

Couple of things to consider which will work in our favor. Dew temps are lower now, air marginally colder now, its night time, off shore breeze which will ease off further as the night goes on which will make better conditions for evaporate cooling. Obviously its means nothing if we don't get any precipitation though.

Its one of those radar situations where it be so hard to predict what them showers are going to do, I suspect it could be a joyful night for some, frustration for others.

I don't know, its always been the case(from my experience) on the radar that you see PPN dissapearing/fizzling out from a line East of Edinburgh usually, no idea why though. As people say, things are developing now so hopefully something will occur but you can see the showers in Northern Scotland starting too veer more SSE'ly so the flow is changing. If all goes to plan, we could see a slow moving streamer like, lets see what happens.

In these situations for whatever reason PPN tends to dissapear in Eastern Scotland but you usually start seeing speckles of PPN developing near Northumberland and this is what I expected but nothing seems to be happening as of yet. Time is running out also I feel for things to change and too look more promising.

We'll see if it even makes this far South, a clear drier period is not a bad thing and the reason why the snowfall this morning occured(albeit not very much) was because upper and lower air temps were low enough for it, no doubt if there was more intensity then no doubt we would of seen more in the way of snowfall. It would also help the ground to dry up somewhat(Although lying snow can settle on a wet ground quickly if the temps are at 0 or below) but see if we get any PPN first! Today surprised me a little bit, was not really expecting a persistant PPN event and it was ashame the air once again was just not cold enough although we did get some snow at times but sadly the intensity was never consistently moderate-heavy no matter how much it tried. Was expecting and hoping a more convective Northerly in truth.

Not much comment on the UKMO and you can see why, Scand high becomes a Russian high, Atlantic coming into play, outlook is for things to turn less cold. Its not a raging Atlantic by any means but I think we need too look at the reality and not some fantasy that we may see the Scandi high coming into play much. This afternoon's UKMO may be better for any frontal snow event, hard too tell though.

Still the trend for the Scandi high to edge eastwards towards Russia which of course means more chance for the Atlantic to eventually win the battle. Of course there is signs the scandi may be more stronger and may resist the Atlantic somewhat but there is no real trend for it to back too far westwards to allow any significant cold to come in from Scandi and that is a fact really. Regarding the easterly, well not only it is probably not cold enough for snow for the most part, it could turn out that there is not much instability either so a lot of cloud, feeling quite unpleasant really. Would not mind taking a cold raw easterly if it can lead to some reward down the line but it looks doubtful really.

Really... Not only the intensity looks pretty poor but the cold uppers are getting more and more mixed out. Mind you, you could be on more higher ground so you got more potential of what falls out of the sky to be of snow.

Got to say I find the charts quite underwhelming, the cold uppers are just getting mixed out with each run and any PPN coming in from the West is more than likely will lack any real intensity to try and compensate for the mixed out cold air. I also don't think an easterly will float my boat, cold, raw, mainly dry weather does not float my boat and will the Scandi high really come into play much? I very much doubt it, models are clearly saying it will head back towards Russia and the UK will eventually be back in the milder Atlantic air. Whilst it good people have got some snowfall, this cold period could easily be more memorable but sadly what could wrong has gone wrong but thats the weather for you.

All down to intensity, we did get to the moderate stage but it didnt last long, looking at Gaz's photos it certainly not like that here, its just looks really icy with the frost thawing. One of those where if the band was stronger, it will be of snow for sure. Kind of sums up how this cold snap has went sadly, hoping for some surprises tonight even if the forecast looks underwhelming.

I just think the whole thing has turned farcical with how things turned out I have to say although in fairness some people have been awarded with some snow. Uppers are getting mixed out and with intensity don't look all that strong i can't see much coming off from any potential snow in terms of lower levels however would love to be proven wrong.

Shows how how patchy these situations can be because its gone lighter again and more sleety as raindrops are appearing on the windows

Yep intensity has gained and its now back to snow again, don't think it will last long(although in these situations, the radar can be a bit unpredictable) but nice too look at nonetheless. Today/tonight is our best and perhaps only realistic chance of seeing and getting some snowfall.

Gone more sleety here so the mild sector is making its presence felt, quite light intensity.

Some light dandruff snow here with it settling on the ground instantly, makes it all the more frustrating its not heavier as of yet. Got to make the most of it whilst there is no wind because once that Northerly wind picks up, the temps and dewpoint will no dooubt ris.

There is no way freezing rain is falling,, freezing rain falls when the upper air temp is around 0 or above but the air temps are lower levels is below freezing, going by some people's locations, its just a case of being too close to the coast, if the wind slackens off and goes off shore and you have precipitation falling then it might get interesting.

Have seen snow showers coming in from the West but they tend to be isolated and certainly not the rule by any means. Some potentially interesting developments, the Northerly is now forecast to be a bit more true Northerly at least during Sunday daytime so there is the potential of seeing some convective weather and Sunday night into Monday could also be interesting, the uppers are forecast to get slightly colder during sunday night so lying snow risk becomes more of a possibility. In these situations you can see 'streamer' set ups as the winds falls slack and start to veer more NNW'ly and the showers slowly die, i'm not sure if this will be the case here as the Northerly will not be fully established for long enough but in these situations its a case of radar watching. Not the first time we had a Northerly either, we had a similar one in December and despite winds off shore and what look on paper decent uppers, the showers that did fall was of rain with tiny bits of sleet with a temp and dew of 1/1C but I fancy any high ground should be fine. That was one frustrating evening though.

It shows well above average temperatures for the most part but still bitterly cold by anyone's standards although I do get what you say but surely your wording on "warmth" is quite misleading?

I can't see a Northerly appearing at all on the UKMO, for anyone who wants any real cold to continue the UKMO is awful to say the least. The GFS reintroduce the slider possibility but with the cold air getting mixed out, its not something that would excite me a great deal but its got more snow potential than the UKMO would. All in all, pretty bog standard charts after a cold start to the week with the risk of some frontal snow which may even turn too marginal for a lot of areas.

Well just looked outside and a shower must of went past as there is splodges of dampness around, looks like rain may of just fallen but either way not missed much.

BBC forecasting an occluded front to pass through so the more organised showers may make it across the pennines, be localised where they will hit though and indeed for those at lower levels whether they will fall as snow or not!

detail will change as I said earlier in the day, I would not get hung drawn and quartered over it in all honesty. I think sunday is our best chance in one way but there is no real indication its going to amount too much but we shall see.

Reason why its unlikely to flip again is because we are closer to the reliable time frame and the trend is for more energy to push out of the states/canada which has an affect down the line for us, these things can and do happen regardless of the weather type we face hence we can see charts which look bleak turn in favor for cold lovers. its all part of the volatile nature of the weather. Models were right with it turning colder but they look incorrect in predicting a slider low through the UK however there is still some snow potential when we do get a breakdown from the West, just got too see if this will turn out in the favor of snow lovers or not.

Indeed some people were saying the slider was a certainty even at the medium range but sadly everything has changed and we gone from an easterly to a NW'ly in the space of 24 hours! As Crewecold said earlier the charts are now looking similar to what we had for most of the winter although there is some height rises to the NE which could come into play.