Geordiesnow

Some decent output tonight if rather messy and complicated looking but those details are no doubt subject to quite a bit of change so no doubt there be some opinion on what is a good run and what is not a good run. For me personally its good too see this weekends Northerly being toned up and the mid atlantic heights are a little stronger as a result, still time for the detail to change but at least it means the weather is likely to stay on the cold side. As for an easterly, I don't see too much sign of an easterly as of yet, there is hints but that all it is at the moment, I would rather see a more clean Northerly or an Easterly as the slack set ups can deliver the goods for some but frustration for others however it be interesting too see how things develop in the coming days.

I think you are reading too much into the charts Nick personally, I would not be surprised if we see some evidence of some snowfall by tomorrow morning. Just had a light shower which contained a few snowflakes so the potential is there. There is alot of thick high cloud around from the feature hitting further South and the radar looks a little unreliable in respect there is no individual shower you could follow that could hit you, its one of those of just looking out of the window and see what happens! Another light shower hitting here, mainly of rain but some sleetiness mixed in also.

One of those really interesting set ups where this morning started off cold and very windy then things died down and the day was fairly average and now tonight the wind is picking up and the temperature is shooting up rapidly, then we got the potential of a squally front heading through the region following on tomorrow by much colder weather with the risk of sleet and snow showers although i imagine east of high ground won't see much in the way of shower activity mind. Can't complain the weather is boring thats for sure!

Good too see the continuing pattern of cold weather as we head into Next week, there is complications regarding that developing low mind but in one way, a shallow low may not be a bad thing, it would raise the potential of some frontal snow if the low is more shallower, all will depend just how stubborn and cold the air gets next week. Looks interesting for more Northern and Western areas of the UK but as ever, its radar watching in these situations. Longer term, there is hints we may see some sort of light at the end of the tunnel with the jet weakening and starting to buckle a bit more but way too far out to pin point what may happen in the longer term just yet.

Looks to me a more colder trend is on the cards with PM air mostly dominating, detail will be important and this could alter things but I think for some areas, the ECM/UKMO runs are certainly not bad runs at all. Convective wise, its most certainly is interesting and IF it set up perfectly, then there could be some surprises but a long way off in terms of nailing down the detail. Even as early as Saturday night, there could be some surprises on the card, the cold air is brief but its fairly potent considering its source.

I have a feeling the predicted 100mph gust will be the exception rather than the rule if it even occurs at all. Nevertheless, storm form gusts are expected and its one I am interested in. Saturday's low looks less severe although on the GFS 18Z, Shetland could be even harder hit.

Interesting ECM 120 Hours with that unusual kink looking in the isobars, could be some very very strong gusts for a brief time for Scotland looking at that. I do doubt the reality will look like that mind but the potential for some stormy weather is still there. Shame it totally downgrades the polar airmass at 144 hours mind but still pretty gusty.

Still interested in how these fast moving low pressure systems are going to be modelled, still the potential for quite a deep vigirous low with severe gales possible as we head towards the weekend. The cold shot from the NW would still interest me also even though it seems PM shots from the Atlantic tend to be more modified hence if the same cold came from the East, it would look more likely snowfall would get to lower levels however if this set up does not downgrade then some lower level snowfall is certainly possible, one to watch for sure. Overall for anything more significant and longer lasting cold, the outlook is still awful, we do still look to be in a bit of a rut unfortunately but I would still not write off the whole of January by any means though.

I must be the only one who is slightly encouraged by recent developments of heights coming from the Arctic that is on our side of the pole! Admittedly I havant been viewing the models too much but from what I seen, any height rises has been mainly over the pole and over on the Pacific side of the Arctic with very little to shout about in the Svalbard region but now things seem to be changing. Yes, the PV still looks very strong but don't underestimate those height rises because they can be more stubborn than they appear. The chances of cold from the East are still quite low but I am a little bit more encouraged with what I am seeing here, now if we can back things a bit more westwards then things could get more interesting for sure. Even if you don't get it right stright away, aslong the height rises and the potential deep cold pool is still there, there is still time for things to fall into place and any cold shot from the East will still be cold enough. I much rather see this than some poorly alinged Russian high pumping up milder air into Scandi and Russia and into Svalbard where it looks like any meaningful cold is miles off.

Good too see some reports of snowfall... its just been moderate rain here with the rare occasion of a few odd flakes mixed in. Its typical how it turned out because everything is right really, off shore wind, slow shower activity and yet the air is perhaps just not quite cold enough. A opportunity of getting at least a bit of lying snow well and truely missed.

You sure its not 9CM, that what the photo says Mark. Great photos and I'm sure it is a surprise for you, the system is definately further North than forecast and well I can only dream of seeing scenes like those.

Yep the year before last I don't think was all that great either but was obviously better than last year. Its been around 2 year since i saw proper snowfall during daylight hours.... My only heavy snow shower that produced a dusting last year was during the night. Might be some surprised tomorrow/tomorrow evening, the upper air temps looks a bit marginal but if the winds are off shore then we could see fairly slow moving heavy showers, hopefully they will contain of snow.

I think out best chance is those convective showers tomorrow evening for a short while, could be some heavy ones off shore, can only hope as the winds turn more NE'ly they can come on shore, the air may just be cold enough for them to turn to snow but got to hope the lower level winds stay off shore also. With a slack flow then any shower may last a while also. That said, its not something I'm overly confident about hence not really much excitment over it in fairness but it is our best chance to get the white stuff. Very very brief window though.

So what is this based on then, may I ask? I think there is a very strong signal for the high to get shaunted out of the way, the PV to be very strong over Canada in particular and the small potential of a another rapidly deep low pressure system. The only real uncertainty is how long will the high hang on for but either way, it looks very likely it will be shaunted out of the way. Mind you, how can anyone predict it be Atlantic all the way until mid January I will never know, it can only be based on guess work.

Looks fairly similar too me Shuggee, obviously details will change but it still shows an ridge and a shallow low pressure system heading through the UK on boxing day? Of course, the trend in the medium to longer term can quickly change, especially if conditions in the stratosphere are favorable to potentially disrupt the weather patterns but the trend for Next week looks to be one of things to slowly getting milder from the West, just how quick that transition is to happen will be uncertain at this stage mind, the high could be more stubborn or the Atlantic could come in quicker than it is model now.

I would be careful on reading too much into the graphics although with an off shore wind and cold air, you got more chance of any PPN being of sleet/snow rather than just rain. Although I would rule out much in the way of settling snow, I would not rule out seeing snowfall at all in all honesty.

I think he means in terms of the general trend overall to be fair PS. Weatherwise, if you can't have cold with snow then cold and dry with frosty mornings will do me although the trend is for things to less turn from the West as we head through the week. Regardless if there is a lack of data or not, the trend has been for the PV across to Canada to get much stronger and the Atlantic to regain strength, although detail will be subject to change, these less complicated set ups do tend to mean predicting the overall trend is easier than it is if there was a cold and blocked set up to occur.

The mild air you mean? Definate trend of a PV strengthning across Canada and with the trend of the states getting much colder then we could see something like last year? Too early too tell and things could change though.

I think the main front will miss most if not all of the region, I can't say I'll be too disapointed as uppers of just -5 and a NE'ly would not be enough to bring snowfall and in all truthness, if 2-4CM is forecast from a frontal event, then that suggests its very marginal and it may start as rain turning to snow if it turns to full on snow at all. The BBC graphics also suggests this, our main hope is for some trough and convective activity to pass through which is what the UKMO sort of suggests, it will be quite hard to pin down on the detail just yet though.

Got to say, I'm a tad disapointed just how flabby and weak this NE'ly has got... compared to earlier runs at least, would you even call it a NE'ly anymore or is it just a shallow shortwave heading SE'ly and then the 2nd low finally heads southwards and we end up in a slack Northerly for a very brief period of time. Still some snow potential and that is a good thing about a more shallow low pressure system, the higher up you are, the more chance really of seeing falling and lying snowfall. I think when the BBC suggests only 2-4CM in a frontal event, then this suggest rain/sleet/wet snow will be seen also and the air over us is not that cold and nor will it of been established for a long period of time. Longer range, looks too me a rapidly strengthening PV and the Atlantic trying to push in, does not look too much potential going by these latest runs.

But what a more shallow low does is keep the cold air that does come in during xmas more or less over us and not get mixed out by milder air and tonights ECM is a good example of the former... The problem we may have is just the lack of PPN and the lack of timing before pressure rises too much. Sadly the models don't seem to indicate much in the way of convective weather but the Fax charts will be interesting too see if there is any troughs mixed in with the flow.

It shows nicely how the detail can change from run to run but lets be honest though, its a pretty similar chart in respect it will be quite cold and mostly dry with high pressure toppling into the UK. I thought the ECM looked decent upto 120 hours and then things did seem like falling apart somewhat. I do firmly believe any easterly is a firm outsider at present, only tentative signs that we may see an easterly but who knows. Cold, dry and frosty weather to come, any snow potential detail is quite sketchy although it seems snowfall should not really be too much of an issue here.

Its not a random shortwave, all models show this and this is what will give our rain band from the West on Boxing day, what the models do with this in terms of positioning are all slightly different mind. Maybe its one too keep an eye for potential snowfall also mind because the cold that is coming down during xmas day could prove to be more stubborn than first thought and a shallow shortwave heading in from the West could provide some fun and games for higher elevations. 18Z is chalk and cheese to the 12Z run mind and it goes to show why this model is unreliable at times but the main thing for me is that it had a better ridge and shows the low slipping SE'wards.

I think a lot will depend just how much amplification we will get and how that will affect the sinking low will depend how quick any threat of the Atlantic coming back, you can clearly see not only the low tracks in a different direction, any amplified ridge is not as strong as on the UKMO and ECM. In the realiable timeframe, the outlook is a cold one if not especially snowy but some seasonal weather is on the way for sure. Another thing, detail at this stage will be sketchy so i would not rule out anything just yet, especially if the Euros are right.

I don't think the cold has been delayed at all, the pattern is still the same of cold xmas period then milder boxing day with the chance of something colder afterwards. The problem we have seen is at one stage we were worrying about a west based NAO and now we are looking at heights not sustaining and the PV powering up again and of course the other difference is the important detail with each run so some runs are showing something a bit more favorable for cold and others don't.