Geordiesnow

Yep very typical isnt it really, as I say, there will be a milder sector occuring during Friday(although PPN wise, there probably be less so no real harm there) but we really don't want that trough to hang around our shores for much longer, the further East the better and its typical that the UKMO is backing down now in this respect. Stll time for some minor changes in what is important crucial detail I feel. At least we are seeing some upgrades in terms of the strength of the Atlantic ridging especially from the UKMO.

Last week cold air did believe it or not did make it onto our shores it was just the fact lowland snowfall was very disappointing indeed with just being the wrong side of marginal. Although I accept that there will be a mild sector, it is disappointing the models are trending again to have the centre of the trough too close too us so we are having to deal with the milder sector for longer and the cold air taking a bit longer too flood down.... Why can't it move Eastwards for!? The ridge looks as good as we are going to get it, I would not say its a foregone conclusion just yet regarding the high collapsing on top of the UK but it looks the most likely at this stage.

Yes however the FAX charts tends to mirror the UKMO output which i mentioned a few times that its the best regarding reducing any milder sector as the main core of the trough(low pressure system) is far enough eastwards hence you get a quicker Northerly, less of a mild sector and the colder air filters down quicker. ECM and GFS has the trough too close to us so you get those pesky mild sectors coming into play before the cold air finally makes its way southwards.

Question will be, will they be cold enough for snow? I think its fairly certain the initial blast will be cold enough for snow(away from locations at and close to western coasts) on Wednesday and into Thursday but if the centre of the lows are too close to the East for Saturday then I'm afraid it looks very very marginal indeed because of the mild sectors.

The UKMO still has the troughing further East than the ECM/GFS so mild sectors will be less of an issue and your in the Northerly flow quicker as a result. The questions still remains of how far eastwards the troughing gets,how much amplification in the Atlantic and how will that nuisence low pressure system/shortwave play out, the general trend has been set for a few days now, its kind of down to the detail and this will decide how long this cold shot could last for and how much snowfall there could be.

Only if the flow is favorable, if not then you can watch all those shower clouds over the North Sea with envy. Again we can't seem to shift the trough far enough eastwards to allow the Northerly flow to hit us in perhaps a favorable manor and for the actual cold air to flow down so we are not stuck in mild sectors. The UKMO is the best in this respect. In one way, aslong the ridge is at a favorable angle, then I would not mind some eastward movements.

I rather just have a clean Northerly flow and get the proper cold air in place before anything like that complicate things. UKMO at 120 hours shows a more perfect Northerly but with that shortwave that scoots across the top of the high, its start to tilt the Northerly back to an NNW'ly. Be interesting too see what the ECM does to that shallow low pressure system, it could be a help but it could also be a right spoiler like on this mornings ECM run.

Slim but by no means impossible, seen hints in the output we could get enough amplification and at the right angle for a more Northerly/NNE'ly but I say what is showing seems more likely at the moment. In one way, it is probably better we don't see a Northerly that favors our region as it only increases hype and could lead to dissapointment, its an interesting output for sure and don't rule anything out.

As I said in the model thread, I rather the trough to be further East so it reduces the milder sector which probably will occur now whatever happens, I know about the great debate regarding thicknesses and all that but even so it is still too mild for snow. Would like the Northerly flow to be more stright proper Northerly or an NNE'ly, an NNW'ly tends to show the wishbone effect that many people say but you be surprised how far inland showers can get in a straight Northerly. Still time for this to alter so Im not too worried about this yet although the odds do seem to against of a proper straight Northerly.

I wouldnt call it a formidable block but I would not like to guess what could happen after that chart but the UKMO again looks a decent run too me. We may have to accept some sort of milder sector coming into play before the upper air could potentially get colder again as some people alluded too, the GFS is slightly better but the further East the trough is the better so we can get more of a NW'ly flow thus any milder sector is reduced. All in all, not a bad start to this afternoon runs.

That is probably correct plus having a winds coming in off the sea won't help matters in this respect. Still time for this detail to detail, for better or worse, the UKMO still looks the most promising for something more colder with any milder sectors being small.

Got to say, I have to go against the grain here and say the GFS 06Z is a poor run, it really is, very little snowfall on this run in the medium term unlike the UKMO and even the ECM runs are showing, too deep of a low which is too close to us which just mixes out the cold uppers thus temps are too mild(5C). Longer term its better but I believe that as much as I believe the ECM op FI run because we all know it will change from run tor run although the ECM FI has probably got more chance to be right seeing as it got more support but its by no means a foregone conclusion because a little change in the short term will change the medium to longer term, that is always the case in model watching hence forecasting longer term patterns is always a challenge. Its an output which is interesting but not a one where its nerve shredding because its not the coldest charts you will ever see and detail wise they are far from perfect, in some respects its kind of nothing to lose type of thing and no doubt we will still see further detail changes whilst the main trend is always there of a half hearted ridge with a fairly strong North/NW'ly flow(albeit not in terms of temperatures). Edit: I'm on about about the medium term regarding the GFS, short term with that cold blast and longer term with lengthening any cold is not bad indeed.

Tame Northerly? I know what you mean in terms of the temperatures but because of various factors, the Northerly showing is perhaps not going to be as cold as it probably should be on paper but in terms of the strength of the flow in terms of wind, it looks a strong Northerly too me. What is dissapointing me is the lack of cold upper air temps(when is the -10hpa going to enter mainland UK!?), we just not getting the trough in the right place so the coldest air is not quite being tapped into, this of course could still change as no doubt the details will keep on changing but obviously it could downgrade further. Still don't like the GFS trend of bring the low to close to us but its not totally out of line with other runs, its got the general idea but the important detail is different. Hopefully the 00Z runs will give a clearer picture on what may happen after the initial potent blast from the WNW.

And I'm not sure whether I will use the term "freezer" either, the ECM is okay but nothing what I would say all thate noteworthy in all honesty. Obviously there has been much debate regarding 850 temps and low thicknesses in how lower thicknesses could mean 850 could become less of an issue but looking at the ECM, I'm not sure you will get all that low temps on that 120 hours chart for example especially during daylight hours. However in general, the theme has not changed but the detail has and no doubt this will keep chopping and changing, although the signal is only small, it would be good to get at least a decent enough Atlantic block, it can only help to sustain the Northerly for longer.

Are you really going to despair of missing on what is just effectively is a mere light covering for some parts? Its still a while until the detail is resolved and then you got the issue with the upper air temps, low thicknesses or not, the ECM does not exactly looks "cold" in the important 96-144 hour period. Still time for things to change so lets wait and see what develops.

I can understand some still being underwhelmed by the GFS because it faffs on when the cold sets in and a lot of it does turn quite marginal and its just messy ether way you look at it, it does get there in the end and that has been the trend from the GFS so you can't rule it out by any means. I still think the UKMO is the best, cleanest and safest set up, although i prefer to see it on WZ before reserving judgement but too me, it does not look to bad of a run too me, questionable just how cold those upper air temps will be mind but I would bank that run personally, especially if I live in the West. See what the ECM does tonight would not be surprised if it downgraded the FI potential but I am more interested in what happens in the 96-144 hour period, hopefully it will keep its cleaner set up.

Yes but with the air that frigid and dry, you won't be getting much PPN with cold air such as that.(i believe most will probably evaporate before reaching the ground) The -40 hpa is becoming more rarer nowadays so it be interesting just how cold Canada and Northern US could actually get.

The initial WNW'ly looks pretty potent too me and with those low thicknesses there is bound to be snowfall away from areas that are close to the Coast, of course the flow gets more modified as mild sectors come into play but Wednesday into Thursday has certainly got potential too see lying snow quite widely across Ireland/Northern Ireland, South and Western parts of Scotland, Wales, and parts of NW England. I got to say, the GFS evolution is different to the UKMO/ECM so i'm a little skeptical at this moment in time with what its showing and in all fairness, I probably would prefer the UKMO/ECM set ups, looks safer too me than the messy GFS! What happens after that will probably depend on how much of an Atlantic ridge we get, it would be nice to get a true Northerly so we can tap into that more significant colder air, no doubt tomorrow runs will give another day of drama.

No disputing the weather could turn colder next week but I really would like too see a better amplified ridge in the Atlantic to sustain any TRUE Northerly(isobars coming all the way from Svalbard/Arctic) and allow the colder uppers to come down within the flow... again, the -10hpa does not really make an appearance into mainland Britain but with some adjustments then surely this is possible, especially with that huge solid lump of PV that is forecast to come out of the Arctic. The detail will no doubt vary and we will see some good and some not so good runs but the theme as we head into the latter part of January does seem to be one of turning colder with an increased risk of snowfall starting from midweek with what could be a fairly potent WNW'ly.

Looks on the wrong side of marginal too me. Lets be honest, the models have hinted both upper air and PPN intensity could be against us but if you read the model thread you would not think this was going to be the case, it never filled me with much optimism in all honesty and looking at the radar, we aint missng much at all really. I won't be losing sleep over it for sure.

We do but it depends on the set up really, but i do prefer convective snowfall minds witth those stunning CU clouds! I kind of thought that if your not going too see any lying snow then go and chase it so I went up to Consett and to be able to walk on lying snow for nearly 2 years was good and walking through public paths with the snow covered trees was quite a sight and I did take some pics but sadly they are on my phone and are quite poor quality and my phone won't let me upload them! It was interesting too see the snow amounts increased as the higher up you went and lets be honest, the lying snow level was not that high with a light covering observed near the A1 even(which suggested too me if any showers did hit last night, they did turn to snow for some inland even with modest altitude) but obviously the greater amounts were always going to be on the higher ground. On a personal level, the cold spell was a huge disapointment apart from that brief light covering we had only for it to be all washed away in the morning. Not only that, no real visable frost was recorded(too much cloud cover) no freezing fog and minimum temps were not all that cold. It just kind of summed the whole last 2 winters up, hopefully Feb can finally produce something.... Please!

Must be from that decent sized blob that is in Northumberland at the moment, at last some rewards for patience. Goodness, it looks like my location could go through that gap, wish it would close up, I'll see whether this shower will hit or not and then hit the hay for the night although no doubt I will still be radar watching.

snowing here too, same report as everyone else, not lasting very long but it did stick, only a dusting a mind.

PPN evaporating before hitting the ground? surely not!

Unfortunately we could be seeing the effects of the flow slackening off and showers potentially struggling making their way down here, frustrating radar but sort of sums up the winter so far in many ways. Still would not rule out anything mind, everytime the radar updates, its kinda nail biting!