Geordiesnow

Cold indeed, and that is unlikely to change but the detail will, the GFS looks a dog dinner with the amount of shortwaves that are in there. There does seem to be a trend emerging that any height rises towards Greenland won't last and the Northerly will probably topple but how quick this will happen will of course be a question that will remain unanswered for now.

But we did see a brief polar maritime incursion just on Friday especially further North with wintriness even reported to quite low levels across Scotland but this will be the first Arctic blast of the season. One positive thing any cold blast will do is too cool the SST's down because I would not be surprised if they are above average at the moment. The detail still looks rather sketchy too me but the main emphasis does seem to be, an ridge into Greenland from quite an unusual starting point and a trigger low to help bring down the colder air from higher latitudes so some sort of cold weather will happen but whether it be a full on blast or something a bit more watered down is still very much debatable. Someone mentioned the ECM looks dry apart from Northern Scotland but too me, with fairly cold air, low thicknesses then I just can't see how it looks 'dry'. Should be some decent convective weather in eastern areas on that run and there should be some wintriness within those showers also,

I think some may of underestimated slightly the upper air temps, there is very small pools of uppers of around -5 that briefly hit the Northern areas today so some wintriness even at lower levels is not all that surprising really. Too me, the uppers are slightly colder than some runs suggested quite a few days ago so a rare event of upper air temps being colder nearer the time.

Small chance that the rainfall for Saturday at least could miss Cumbria and hit more southern parts, its one too keep an eye on nonetheless because if it does hit Cumbria then no doubt there will be some flooding from it. Looking forward to tomorrow and hopefully we will see a classic sunshine and shower set up. I suspect things may start grey and wet before the bright convective weather arrives. Also I suspect tomorrow will be the day when the winds could be at their strongest

The rainfall amounts for the next few days is most certainly of concern, although there is a small chance the rainfall may end up further south than hitting the areas that been hardest hit so far. The potential for severe gales with the ex hurricane does seem less likely now but still one too keep an eye on because the potential is there I feel.

It does seem we may see temperatures finally dropping more down to average as the models are indicating more in the way of cooler Atlantic weather as we head into next week. Got too keep a close eye on the weekend though, could be a lot of rainfall in areas which have experienced quite a lot of rain recently and the small potential of that ex hurricane Kate producing severe gales for the more southern areas.

I don't know if its me but if anything, the temps have risen this evening and tonight especially in the East so there is a good chance of the record being broken in quite a few spots tonight. Its not all that unusual though and even during winter, if you get a mild SW'ly, you can have night temps of 13/14C with a blustery wind which actually feels pleasant and warm as long as its not raining. It been a more interesting Autumn but if there is something this Autumn is lacking, it is a proper polar maritime spell. I do wonder how high SST's are at the moment?

Don't agree with that, a lot of places have recieved heavy rainfall with mainly southern and Eastern areas escaping to an extent. I got to say, since moving location, I can definately see the huge difference what a moist SW'ly can do and today's radar just says it all. It was even bright if not some sunshine in the North East today whilst here, its been dull and wet and sunshine has been lacking around here for the last 2 weeks now. I can't recall the sun being out for any length of time around here and its been at night whenever any clear spells actually occur. Hopefully I will see the benefits of convective weather from a polar airmass coming in from the Atlantic on friday though!

I think those who are worrying about fog perhaps hampering any chance of warmth then imo, its not too much of a concern as it appears only Sunday is the risk of this occuring, The southerly flow, in my eyes looks like it will be too strong for fog to form as we head into next week although sea fog could be an issue in some Southern and perhaps western coastal areas at times. The upper air temps do look like easing down a touch from the weekend, so I would say the chances of reaching 20C into next week looks less likely imo. Does look like this pattern will stick around for quite a while though which is a shame because its that time of year I would like too see the Atlantic kicking into gear and seeing some polar maritime air mixed in for good measure.

Still a bit of uncertainty regarding the final orientation of the high as we head from the weekend into next week which may affect just how warm things will get but there is no disputing the fact of a warming quite widely trend as we head into the weekend and next week. Going to be interesting just how warm its going to be, I guess it could boil down to how much sunshine there will be but either way, humidity should be high and it will feel like late summer regardless if its cloudy or sunny.

From looking at the cloud images yesterday, it would seem it was quite sunny in Aberdeenshire yesterday so a temp of 20.6 with sunshine would sound quite the opposite of a disgusting and vile day.

Bit of a bland outlook in all fairness at the moment, for me, the main trend I seem too see in the long term is for height rises to sink and the jet stream looking a more normal pattern so all rather bog standard stuff really. The positioning of the high is quite crucial on what type of weather we may have but it does look a dry outlook with chilly nights and perhaps coolish days at times, especially the further East you are.

Pleased with the output in the respect we are going too see the other side of Autumn in respect of wind and rain, potentially strong gusty winds in some areas although detail at this range is quite sketchy. Also the potential of an ex hurricane interacting with the jet stream could make things interesting down the line also. The outlook are still not really indicating much in the way of a true polar maritime shot of the season so whilst the other side of Autumn will be making an appearance, temperatures do look quite mild to say the least and night time minimums will be above average.

Don't think that is the case at all, a true stright Northerly with a slight eastward edge can have snow showers heading well inland across Eastern areas in particular, a Northerly with a slight western edge seems to create more of a coastal wishbone effect regarding the showers but as the poster alluded too, we had not had a true stright Northerly which lasted over 24 hours for a long long time now it seems.

Just got too keep an eye on what the UKMO is showing because the low(which is quite deep on both the ECM and GFS runs does get closer to the UK than the other runs so any fronts could very well hit the more North Western areas but apart from that, the outlook still looks settled and dry and potentially turning quite a bit warmer. Still uncertain on the exact positioning of the high after the weekend but there is increasing confidence that the temps could rise a little bit more after the weekend especially if we pull in more of a SE'ly flow into the UK.

I would not like to call on a 2 week settled spell either, especially when you got tropical storms lurking which could interact with the weather patterns however it does seem at least for Saturday and Sunday, it should be fine, settled and dry, touch and go regarding any fronts in the far North West but hopefully any frontal clouds will stay off shore. Regarding frosts, I think the main chance will be this weekend as the uppers are at its coolest then but even then, its not true proper polar maritime air(850 temps 0 or below is polar maritime air) and the uppers do tend to warm up as the weekend goes on and potentially next week, the uppers are forecast to go even higher up to 10C hence forecasts of temps potentially climbing as we head into next week and I would imagine the chances of frost will reduce. That is uncertain and by no means a guarantee at this range because of how tropical storm Ida will interact with the weather pattern and there is also hints the high could head northwards around Scotland which pull in a more cooler Easterly flow thus upper air temps are more modified therefore temps are cooler more widely.

Does seem quite a strong trend for a SE'ly flow, with both the GFS and ECM at times forecasting this, timing of when it will happen has been quite varied so not guranteed to come off. For those wanting one last warm spell may have to be patient regarding any real warmth out of this, its going to be quite a slow start in terms of temperatures although what cooler upper air temps tend to do is bring a lot more sunshine than cloud so at least the high should be a fairly 'clean' high to start off with. Fog could be an issue also which will most certainly give an Autumnal feel in that respect. Questions for me will be, how long will this settle spell last for and whether we can tap into any proper warm upper air temperatures from the continent.

Certainly the trend is fairly strong for strong heights to build over Scandi coupled with a possible ridge over the UK which could lead quite a large block forming with a lot of warm air heading towards Svalbard. That said, the trend is a bit past the medium range at the moment and its a case in the coming days whether models keep this sort of trend or not. One thing for sure, the outlook is looking average to above average in terms of temperatures, although the start of next week could be a little cool with the rain, there is no signs of a true cool outbreak at the moment so there is nothing in the true sence of Autumn(where for me is when its sunny by day but temperatures are quite low),appearing on the outlook yet.

Going from experience, whilst a trend is for low pressure to try and undercut the high, I still would not say its a full gone conclusion the low will be directly affecting the UK's weather by the weekend, no doubt it will take a few days to clear everything up but there is some hints the influence of the high may hang on longer. I think right upto Friday does look more or less stright forward with the exception of cloud amounts but the trend is for the weather to turn warmer, probably sunnier but also winds increasing(could be quite gusty on windward coasts and to the lee of high ground) as the high drifts NE'wards. Got to admit, moving to Lancashire does make this set up a lot more pleasing to see than if I was still living in the NE!

For me, I'm still accepting of warm spells during September because you can still get quite a bit of warmth still. I was back in the North East and today was a stunning summers like day with warm sunshine and temps approching around 19C and barely a cloud in the sky, the only difference is the evening's are drawing in quite fast sadly. Next week is looking pleasent and warm and the North West should be one of the best places to be as far as sunshine and warmth is concerned so enjoy this weeks weather regardless if you can get a tan or not.

I suppose other factors could be considered in respect of that record breaking warmth that hit the Chuckchi sea in June which must of contributed to high SST's so bottom base melt would no doubt of intensified aswell as melt ponds rapidly forming. We also had some early 'heat' in the latter part of May hence the early opening of the ice in Beaufort but the way ice broke up and fell apart during the melt season in that region was quite something. I believe the start of the melt season was quite cold over the poles and Laptev(hence the slower opening of the ice here than in recent years) but it showed how thin the ice was in Laptev this year as once it finally got properly going, it did open rapidly and there was also rapid ice loss in the East Siberian Sea. One theory I got why Hudson may of been slower to melt was because the wind direction pushed the ice towards one end of the bay where as the other end was ice free coupled with the chilly conditions meant a slower melt here. I do believe if we had set ups like August 2014(Which unfortunately did melt/reduce the multi year ice that was there) then we could of been heading towards the lowest on record if not the lowest, so it could of been a lot worse but fortunately the weather patterns did change albeit bottom melt was occurring so melting was still above average.

The set up next week is one of those where you may see some runs trying to edge that high in and others don't but the main trend does seem to be strongly in favor of the high staying out West with a cool Northerly flow coming down for a few days at least. Cloud amounts could be difficult to forecast, there is a bit of Polar Maritime air mixed in which may bring a more brighter outlook but the sun is still strong enough to bubble the clouds up and flatten out mid morning and this set up does seem to have that written all over it. Best of any breaks you would imagine to be sheltered areas and the further South and West you are but even then, at this stage, its hard to say just how much cloud there will be and of course that will determine how cool the temps will go at night.

For those who may not be aware of the impacts, what do you think the impacts of this could potentially be regarding the speed of refreezing?

I think one of the reasons for the decline happening the way it did could be down to local factors and some early warmth in some parts. Beaufort had early warmth during the latter part of May which caused open water too appear here and Bering/Chuckchi had that hot spell during June(record breaking I believe) and coupled with unfavorable wind direction, then it caused the ice to melt here and for the SST's to rapidly rise. From what I seen, most of the cold was over the poles and the Atlantic side of the basin whilst the Pacific side was just getting battered by warmth at times. I have to say, it shows how poor the ice was in Laptev when after a very slow start, the retreat did start to become rapid here and although its happening a bit more at the moment, there has not been many set ups over Laptev which has warmth coming in from the Russian landmass. I believe a record low was very much on the cards but a cooler August and more favorable conditions has more than likely saved us from a record low, just imagine if we had set ups which occured in August 2014 this year... I would say a record low would probably occur because that month was very warm and unfortunately the Arctic lost quite a bit of thick ice during that month.

Quite an intense thundery downpour around here, the way how it developed caught me out unfortunately with me out on me bike but quite satisfied none the less.