Geordiesnow

Looks like the main uncertainty for the weekend is just how far Northwards any belts of rain from the South will go, it does seem Scotland could remain in the colder air throughout. Interestingly, the Northern boundary of any rainfall could well have a wintry element, even at lower levels so one too keep an eye on. I do feel those PPN charts might be slightly exaggerated in respect of the rain going by the charts won't linger around for 24-36 hours unlike the last event but in any case any persistent heavy rainfall could well lead to more flooding issues unfortunately.

I think as per usual, too much attention on the detail side of things so I hear comments of "I hope the ECM is like the GFS" yet even if it did, it would only raise hype and would know many runs would be needed. There does look like to be a slight pattern change in respect perhaps some more blocking may come into play but how will that affect the outlook remains uncertain.

i'm not all that surprised this post has not got more likes because its not what people want to read but that is a good summery of the current output at the moment. The only hope I can see is if the Arctic high ridges southwards and some runs have shown this but then dissapears back towards the Arctic again and not affecting the weather patterns at all. The outlook despite what seems to be portrayed here is a very mild and at times very windy with brief interludes of some polar(but not really cold) air at times. Looking at the NH charts, it is really interesting too see just how "warm" it looks for December, USA is looking really mild and dry and no doubt snow cover will be below average here, parts of Asia/Russia is looking well above average at the moment and even though thePV is over the Arctic, its hardly the strongest PV(e.g very little in the way of purples or upper air temps below -25) you will ever see. Any real cold does look a long way at this moment in time but things can obviously quickly change.

Looking a bit closer to the reliable timeframe and there is the potential of severe gales for the weekend and a lot of wet weather once again. The severe gales could be a talking point and and that little secondary low which gets caught up in the jet stream could turn out into a small but tightly isobar low pressure system. In a way I don't think having much signs of blocking is a fully bad thing, too often in recent years, there has been too much blocking and Arctic cold therefore tends to be more diluted so in theory a more stronger vortex could lead to more potent cold if/when the vortex gets disrupted. There has been hints of perhaps a bit more blocking heading towards mid month but the models have been up and down in terms of how far Southwards that Arctic high gets but as per usual, never rule anything out.

A little bit more convinced of some sort of influence of the Euro high now, there is agreement on this but how long it influence affects the UK is less certain and the threat of a deep low pressure affecting the UK is there. Also the outlook is favouring more in the way of a mild weather than cold weather, especially with models agreeing on some sort of influence of the Euro high.

Saw a flash of lightning about 25 mins ago from a squally shower, slightly unexpected but good too see.

Still not convinced by any ridge of high pressure into the UK, not as a dominance force anyways. It does look like Tuesday could potentially be the only day where it is nationwide on the mild to very mild side but apart from that, colder air is never all that far away. With such a strong jet stream, its hard too see how high pressure can be dominant although it does look like, at least in Southern areas, there will be some influence in the shape of drier and milder weather. Certainly nothing to worry regarding winter just yet, some areas could see some snowfall in the next day or two!

Although there is a spell of windy weather, its a tad dissapointing we Havant quite got the deep low I would like too see and the models that have to an extent have been hinting at(albeit never directly fully on the UK) That said, some interesting convective weather coming up, especially on Sunday as I feel the air will be that bit colder again and the winds a touch stronger at the same time. As we head into next week, its a situation of where will the waving weather front which divides the mild and cold air will end up, does look like milder air will win to all parts by Tuesday(perhaps albeit briefly)

But it means absolutely nothing if it does not come to fruition though and in all honesty, only a few GFS runs are going for a Scandi high, other model runs have been going for the complete opposite. Still think next week's outlook is uncertain in just how mild it will be and how much the Euro/Bartlett high will affect the UK although it does look more likely still mild will be a more dominate force, some runs have shown the colder air from the Atlantic affecting at least most parts of the UK. Also just how windy will it be, for me, it seems its going to be quite a weekend windy weekend and as we head into next week, the winds will slacken as we start seeing the waving weather front come into play but other runs are going for a more windier set up so one too keep an eye on for sure. Also look like Sunday could be interesting, potential for severe gales is there, will the Met Office be naming this low pressure system I wonder?

I actually thought today was fairly interesting with a mix of convective showers and sunshine, even some hail recorded in those showers. Makes me hope we can have a set up of a proper low thicknesses cold polar westerly/NW'ly airstream with strong winds coming in from the Atlantic so those shower clouds can be more defined and perhaps even thundery/wintry. Also getting used to the fact just how much wetter this location is compared to Newcastle, a lot more days where rainfall is recorded.

At this stage, I would be wary regarding the jet positioning for the medium term as only yesterday, the UKMO was showing a more cooler zonal flow than today's run is showing so whilst it looks a very mobile pattern at the moment, we could see changes in just whether it be a more cooler Atlantic set up or a milder one, today's runs suggest it be more the latter as we head into next week but this could very well change. Also keep an eye on that rapidly deepening low pressure system for Sunday into Monday, both the GFS and ECM show this however not really directing the UK but a different positioning in the jet could well alter this. Its too early to worry about cold and snow prospects at this stage, plenty of time for the outlook to change although the GFS 18Z FI run shows it can change if it comes together but my main focus is most certainly seeing whether we will see more in the way of a milder Atlantic or a cooler one and whether that deep low will affect the UK or not.

And the latest XCweather shows trouble of what a switch in wind direction can do with Boulmer apparently reporting 5C/3C so I be very surprised if South Shields will stick with the snow during the band and I be surprised if most of lowland Tyneside will keep the snow if/when the wind does change direction. As I say though, its still falling snow and its more than what I expected for the NE.

As long as that continues then it should remain as snow, it could be one of those in time where you don't want the PPN to stick around for too long because the winds should switch to a Northerly and there could be some moderation from the sea as a result. Radar is certainly better than I expected for the NE mind!

well its snowing and lying back in my native Tyneside at the moment which shows if the winds are offshore then the air is cold enough for it to fall as snow, I think inland parts and the further East you are is the best chance to see and experience lying snow. I got a feeling I'm too near the coast even if the winds veer around to a more Northerly and I might be too far West but I won't be losing too much sleep over it mind either way.

Was just thinking more in respect that the colder air will be digging back in and it could to an extent undercut the front, looking at the weather stations in Scotland, the lower dew temps are definately returning there indicating colder drier air. If the winds stay off shore, there is a chance it could remain as all snow. I wish I was back there right now but I'll enjoy reading this thread with interest.

Radar does look good, can I move back to the NE now please! That said, I'll be surprised if it stays all as snow, winds are more than likely will veer to a more stright Northerly which will no doubt bring the risk of higher dew points and temps so could start as snow, turn to rain/sleet then perhaps back to snow on its back edge? That said, if nothing else, just seeing falling snow would be a bit of a novelty factor in itself.

Neither, I moved to live with the girlfriend, unfortunately I moved to one of the worse places for snowfall but hopefully I can get compensated with some decent convective weather from any polar westerlies and of course, severe gales! The temps and dew temps look good for the NE at the moment, the problem is, once that PPN arrives, the wind will veer to a more Northerly/NNE'ly which will bring higher dew temps I shall suspect therefore snowfall will be more limited to higher ground. That said, if the winds don't switch when the PPN arrive, then it may actually start as snow initially.

Nice too see some members getting their first snowfall of the season, I'm not too hopeful around here but if wind does go off shore and we can get some PPN then you never know. If the wind is coming in from the sea then it won't happen but you never know!

I think evaporative cooling will be very limited due to the winds(especially if they are on shore winds) but if there is no wintry weather, then some severe gales will do quite nicely!

Unfortunately it does look like the mild sector will come into play and it definately will if winds are veering from the North Sea, as per usual, once colder air comes back in, then most of the PPN is gone! If I was still in the NE, then I probably would not be all that excited seeing as there has been some slight westward movements of the PPN thus moving the mild sector closer to the NE.

In a way, what the UKMO and GFS shows are not too dissimilar in all honestly, they both show some sort of heights to the East of us with a slight ridge in the Atlantic, the UKMO is obviously a bit more amplified and slower thus a little bit colder also. Be interesting what the ECM model will show, continue with its own of the Atlantic racing through with no real signs of any height rises to the East?

Dew temps are lowering now in Northern Ireland with most stations reporting 0 or below dew points so the colder air is filtering in and dew temps around this region should start dropping soon also. Unfortunately, the more organised does have a mild sector in but as long as winds are off shore(winds are forecast to veer more Northerly) then for some areas, snowfall is a real possibility. As per ever, its radar watching and not get too drawn up with those BBC graphics!

I guess if there is one good thing if any PPN is further West and looking at the kink in the isobars, its unlikely there will be any modification from the Irish sea as winds will be coming off shore, the question will be, how much of a mild sector will there be... It does appear, the further West you are, the colder the air will be. Got to say, looking at the set up now compared to what it was, its rather underwhelming and it has been shortened in duration, as I said last night, its the same old problem of not being able to sustain a ridge/heights in Greenland despite the PV being knocked out. Goes to show, even though the overall trend might be there, details will change right up to the last moment, something to bear in mind for the winter months and that goes with any set up really, the fact cold set ups get more attention leads to the false suggestion that its only cold that downgrades but its not the case at all.

Sometimes I wonder why some people are weather enthusiasts when they can't enjoy seasonal weather or at least interesting weather. For me, with it being winter soon, give me polar air anytime of the week. Little dissapointed that the northerly has been toned down a bit for Sunday, it seems to be the same old story, just cannot seem to get proper heights into Greenland nowadays and for the whole set up to edge eastwards nearer the time.

Don't think its much interest that channel low in all honestly, ideally you need cold air already bedded in and we don't have that, if anything, I would prefer that channel low out of the way and let the colder air flood down quicker. Its still hard to say which areas has the main snow risk, I would say, Northern and Eastern Scotland looks a good bet, perhaps Northern Ireland also and parts of NW England at higher levels especially. The problem we see once Sunday comes, the coldest air starts to mix out but with an unstable set up, it should be a sunshine and shower set up but snowfall would be rather limited to higher levels I would of thought. Still time for the minor details to change but for me, this cold snap can only help to lower SST's down a touch which will hopefully helpin any future cold set ups.