Cymro

January 19

1 hour ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Sunday storm now named as Isha with Amber warnings out for the South East, Western England and Scotland.

UKMO & ICON both have it moving in slightly later than GFS and deeper.

Wales disappeared off the map again did it? Deary me!

Looks like a substantial storm for large swathes of the UK in particular coastal areas of the Irish Sea and later into the North Sea. Thankfully the worst impacts should be overnight for most.

January 19

Dusting of snow here since a few showers yesterday evening, our last cold and icy morning today for a few weeks.

January 19

1 hour ago, AO- said:

Agree, but I think you misunderstood me. There are no-15/-20s in the northeast. I'm affraid the cold will 'dissolve' with the sun getting more power.

Far too early to be worried about the sun's strength, if it were the 20th of Feb Id sympathise but it's mid winter. Cold pools develop quickly over Scandi under High pressure at this time of year.

January 18

Croeso mawr Cold weather and beer

Although we haven't seen much in the way of widespread deep snow (4 dustings here this last fortnight which isn't bad) this has been a fantastic prolonged period of below average temperatures.

Ponds and ditches have been frozen solid since 6th of January and will likely remain frozen tomorrow and potentially into Saturday at the latest making it 14 days. We've had an air frost every night for 14 days. 4 Ice days and a minimum temperature of - 8.9.

I would have loved a good dumping of the white stuff but apart from that it's been a lovely dry spell with gorgeous crisp sunshine especially so this week.

Roll on end of Jan/Feb for the next opportunity for something colder.

Nos da bawb

January 18

Tir Abad, Cymru got down to - 9.7 last night. Could be close to that again overnight.

January 18

If only these showers were a tad further east, missing them by around 5 miles

Carmarthen is looking good for a nice covering this morning.

January 15

Pob lwc i bawb yn y gogledd heno

The north looks the place to be this evening!

January 15

We have a dusting

January 13

Keep away from the model thread rhis morning if you want to retain your sanity. Never have I seen it so bad! Quite pathetic and childish in fact!

We will see plenty of snow showers in Wales this week, Im expecting a few surprises everywhere with the nature of this northerly flow. Don't be fooled even in Eastern Wales, Northerlies often produce larger snow totals than easterlies when you get troughs and occluded fronts appearing within 12 hour time frames.

Being on these foruns for nearly 18 years, the overreacting in the mod thread is nothing new but the standard of discussion this year is atrocious. The cold spell won't break down on Friday, it's not a toppler and the models will be very volatile between now and then. Expect drastic changes at short time frames that can extend the cold substantially!

And to remind us all we've had well over a week now of below average temperatures, only yesterday did we reach our highest temperature of the week at 4°c. Ditches, ground and pond frozen solid since last Saturday. Any snow should readily settle next week.

Gan bwyll a daliwch ati! Mae'r eira ar ddod!

January 12

2 hours ago, MKN said:

That is the most likely outcome and always has been. Everyone always gets carried away by charts 180 hours away etc. Northerly outbreaks rarely produce for the majority of the UK except for those in the far North.

This is incredibly incorrect, Northerlies produce much snow for Scotland, Northern England, Northern Ireland, Wales, SW England and Eastern English coastal areas. The only areas that tend to struggle are central areas 50miles inland from the sea.

But entrenched cold from Northerlies set up conditions ripe for battle ground snow across large areas of the British Isles.

The monotonous claim about lack of precipitation and it will be dry are almost always unfounded and snow chances pop up - take a break from the models until Sunday, it will be a different picture by then, with snow chances in this set up a plenty!

January 10

16 minutes ago, TillyS said:

I mean, strictly speaking the CET is above average. Has been well above average for the first third of the month:

Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

It has felt really cold these past two days in the south, and in some cases and places has been cold, but empirically speaking not very. And temps are nudging upwards this week. So, no, not ideal ahead of the apparent snow event next week.

We need deep embedded cold. This isn’t that.

The CET is incorrect and hasn't been updated since the 2nd of January and as such we can't draw a reliable picture here based on the CET until it's no longer down. It's likely we're back down to average following an extensively mild first few days.

Temperatures aren't climbing much above 3-5 degrees this week before tumbling again on Saturday. That is still fairly below average for this time of year.

Regardless my point stands, the chart you posted in relation to upper air temperatures doesn't tell the full story in terms of surface conditions across the UK.

It's fallen below - 10 in Aviemore for 3 nights on the trot, average it is not!

January 10

What's interesting however with all the chase on next week for meaningful snow we're currently much colder than average. Temperatures here have failed to breach 1 degrees since Monday.

Yesterday was an ice day and the ground, ponds and ditches are frozen solid under warming upper air temps. Definitely inversion cold pool developing at the surface and despite the increase in upper air temperatures 2m temperatures are still 3/4 degrees below normal.

For me the cold spell started on Saturday and will continue into next week. 2 weeks at least of below average temperatures in mid winter. Wonderful!

January 10

10 minutes ago, TillyS said:

Thanks Paul.

The one thing I would mention is that these kinds of boundary snow events are always by definition nail-biting. Warmer air pushing into cold, forcing upwards, and bingo! It’s always a cusp event. Some places don’t see the front advance sufficiently into their area. Others see it advance too much and it turns back to rain. Whilst those in the middle are in the sweet spot and it can snow all day long, blanketing entire counties with beautiful soft snow.

The devil then comes in the detail: what’s the track, how far does it encroach, does it turn back to rain etc. etc.?

That’s not where my current concern is though. The tracking comes later as we’re far too far out for the models to pin it down.

No, my concern is that the upper air temps this week ahead of the northerly are lifting and are not going to be particularly cold (+5C 850hPA temps over much of the Midlands) e.g.:

Conditions this week are not ideal. Which makes the northerly critical. How far will it penetrate south, and how deep will those upper air temps go? If it doesn’t make it far south, or if the upper air temps are gradually eroded before the warm front approaches, then this won’t produce the right kind of boundary snow set up for most people, at least in the south of Britain. This has shown as a possible trend on some of the recent model outputs, especially the progressive GFS.

The northerly is everything.

What's interesting however with all the chase on next week for meaningful snow we're currently much colder than average. Temperatures here have failed to breach 1 degrees since Monday.

Yesterday was an ice day and the ground, ponds and ditches are frozen solid under warming upper air temps. Definitely inversion cold pool developing at the surface and despite the increase in upper air temperatures 2m temperatures are still 3/4 degrees below normal so that chart doesn't necessarily paint a complete picture.

For me the cold spell started on Saturday and will continue into next week. 2 weeks at least of below average temperatures in mid winter. Wonderful!

January 9

14 minutes ago, offerman said:

this is so true, even the weather people local presenters would often say M4 corridor, and quite often it would be snow to the north of this and rain in the south quite often

I think this is perhaps very much an England thing re north of the M4 and it doesn't feature much in Welsh weather as in general Wales as a whole is farther north than the M4 to the east of Bristol.

With that being said it does strike me that the pointy bit of SW England a peninsula if you will and likewise Kent to the east have an onshore sea breeze from multiple directions unlike central southern England above the M4 and Wales (excluding the Gower peninsula and Pembrokeshire.

That could have a huge impact in mixing out colder surface conditions quicker hence lows make greater progress inland before coming to a halt.

January 9

56 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

-6/8 uppers just about good enough for snow

Especially following a cold few days beforehand and lowering SST

January 9

39 minutes ago, ITSY said:

This is hugely entertaining and interesting. If UKMO verifies as shown, any eventual encroachment from the West will produce significant snow for somewhere in central or southern England, even if transitory. If the GFS verifies as shown - well, the less said the better there for anyone who's virtually not on a Scottish mountaintop. GEM continues to paint a positive picture closer to UKMO and with a bit of consistency too. GEFS, ECM and EPS will be interesting now...

PS. I think someone else has just said this but you cannot just 'bin' a model output because you don't like it. If we think a model is handling a feature wrongly that is fine - but it's not to be dismissed. It's a possibility, especially for our Isles where if things can go wrong they usually do in the hunt for cold.

Any encroachment will just hop over that western bit and land in England will it? I.e Wales

January 9

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think to stop us going mad, it's better to just look at ukmo and ecm up to 144 at the moment, doesn't seem to swing wildly from run to run

That's a brave call re the ECM following this week's colder uppers and snowfall fiasco with the ECM.

January 8

Light snow here leaving a sugar icing coating, nice as we're further west!

January 7

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

So basically not settling within a couple miles of the coast i.e where that white blob is over my area

Get into the regionals guys

January 7

Come back tomorrow evening and all will be joyous and happy, today would be a good day for a break, get out and enjoy the crisp cold air!

There's enough divergence beyond the reliable for plenty of upgrades yet!

January 6

42 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

So much better than a failed dry Northerly which gets threatened by the Iberian high everytime it attempts to move south of the Midlands think im going to stick to the snow potential in the reliable period Monday for now too far away still to know about this period! Exciting times fellow Southern/Southeasterners

The definition of IMBY here!

Most northerlies progged thus far have been very unstable and would bring copious amounts of Snow UK wide if verified!

January 5

1 hour ago, Harveyslugger said:

Or SW wales

Fortunately in Wales we often have altitude and latitude on our side re most of Wales landmass is above 200m and generally north of the M4 . For our westerly location we punch well above our weight!

January 4

-NAO, West based -NAO

Greenland high and me wan' go home

One run, two runs in FI, me say Oh maybe Westbased -NAO

Keep calm, and enjoy the ride!

January 4

Easterlies rarely get me excited being on the Western side of Bannau Brycheiniog but to see such dry weather on the horizon is great! We've also managed a frost this morning although the forecasted temp is 5 degrees, just shows that the forecast can often be wrong as well.

I hope we pull a Nwstly in at the end of next week to awaken the Dangler!!

January 2

If these runs are sobering then might I suggest that we've got drunk on all the water currently laying about the UK rather than a good fine wine?

To see a protracted signal for dryer than average weather after all this recent rainfall is warming this Welshman's heart and trust me I've almost grown a dorsal fin and webbed feet!

Seldom do we see dry weather in January let alone strong signals for below average temperatures!

Let's enjoy the ride!

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