[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

13 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Do you want him to lie to make you feel better? I’d rather read honest analysis instead of long short charts at +240 and ‘signs’ of an SSW

keep up the good analysis kasim, you are one of the better ones on here

I'm sorry I really don't see your rationale here. I don't watch the weather's developments to feel anything?

It's quite evident since the beginning of this winter that Kasim has been more than downbeat in his posts regarding winter weather prospects. 

Much analysis is brilliant I don't doubt that but this is a forum for the whole of the UK and it is incorrect to refer to Scandinavia in his commentary earlier when Scotland tomorrow and Sunday will see heavy snowfall and any PM NWly as modelled in the 6/7 day range will likely bring snow to Wales, Northern England, Scotland and Ireland and at times other areas of England. 

If you set your bar so high (even with being 450m abs) you will never be satisfied and I think at times a little perspective and context of the UK's position in the Northern Hemisphere wouldn't go a miss for most of us. 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

53 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

...For central Scandinavia. Looks nothing more than bog standard zonal affair for us.

Oh Kasim can you not refrain from sucking any positivity away from each run? 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

5 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Question - which wind directions are cloudy?

That’s a difficult question to answer. Northerlies are the best for widespread sunshine in Winter. Easterlies cloudy for Eastern Wales, Scotland and England yet sunny to the lee of mountain ranges in the West. Westerlies tend to bring cloud to the West of high ground. SW winds depend on where the jet is tracking, if deep south can be clear but mostly cloudy and SE / Southerly winds can bring sunshine especially in summer but in winter tend to be very dull due to a cool continental element to the flow. 

So that’s about as clear as the sky today

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

I’d sooner a NWtly toppler than a boring, dry easterly at this point in time!  -6 uppers is fine if we can find an elongated lp system moving from NW to SE which can give us widespread heavy snow! 

[January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

4.9 and 100mm

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

19 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

Well, if you're after storm force easterlies and -20 850s you're going to be out of luck - indeed, you usually are.

What I'm NOT seeing in tonight's output is traditional Atlantic driven positively tilted systems offering transient PM flows.

Instead, it's more about the transient TM airflows and the preponderance of PM sourced air which while not offering a lot for lowland southern Britain provides plenty of interest for those with altitude and especially those further north. I'm not sure if I would call it "cool zonality" either but what I would call it is very unsettled. 

Lots of rain and snow for the usual suspects - western coasts of Scotland , England and Ireland but also high rain totals through the Channel and southern counties of England suggesting a number of secondary features moving along or close to the Channel. 

Once again, I'm struck by the core of the PV continuing over Siberia with the strongest of the zonal winds. It doesn't help us now and probably precludes a Scandinavian HP.

Great Post but I always despair at how often Wales is overlooked . How can you mention Ireland and Western England and forget the country between both that has heaps of altitude and some of the wettest weather in these kind of situations? 

[Model tweets]

 

Here's an interesting contribution from James Peacock 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

Monday 26 Dec - Wednesday 4 Jan

Frequent wintry showers affecting northern areas on Monday, these becoming confined to the Northern Isles, where very windy too. Elsewhere, some sunshine, but an area of cloud and rain, with a small chance of snow on its northern edge may return from the south for a time. For the following few days, probably a fairly windy and changeable period of weather, with rain, and some snow at times, interspersed with colder, brighter spells. Around the turn of the year, uncertainties in the forecast increase, but a ridge of high pressure may bring a quieter interlude for many with more widely colder conditions, overnight frost and crisp, sunny days. Some wintry showers are also possible, especially in coastal areas.

 

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 21 Dec 2022

Nothing conclusive here and that's not surprising given the complexity of the forecast. 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I accept that but the Met Office is the final thread keeping my hopes alive!

I would never pin much hope on the mid/long range forecast from the Metoffice. Its notorious for being very vague, fence sitting and about as useful as a soggy custard cream at the bottom of a cup of tea

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

In which way?

In a very interesting way

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

T'was 4 days before Christmas and all through this thread 

Were complaints of zonality and pure winter dread.

The ensembles were flapping, flopping and flipping

With hopes of corrections and northerlies encroaching

The thickness and dew points echoed potential 

While visions of sugar-coated dustings became somewhat fanatical 

And the Met with their updates and us with our charts

Soon realised and accepted that sooner we'd start

To open our windows at a Dickens delight

And realise all along that the good old GFS was right

Merry Christmas one and all or as we say in Wales, Nadolig Llawen

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

18 minutes ago, RhHh said:

Snow-free for us here last January. 

I'm talking about January 2021 not last year at 2022

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

There's a lot of talk of poor Januarys for the past decade yet Jan 2021 was a fantastic month for snowfall here in Wales, where it snowed and lay 3 weekends out of 4. No deep freeze but plenty of winter weather

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

15 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Am reading a lot about the uncertainty across all the models. Here's what I think:

- The gfs likely called Christmas correctly, ie cold with some wintry stuff up North. The other models have now largely picked up this idea.

- The gfs persisting with heights over Greenland long term looks incorrect. Why? Because all the other models largely agree on a zonal type setting up.

For me the way fwd is very clear, a transient cold spell for a couple of days coinciding with Xmas day which then reverts to more normal Atlantic stuff. I'm 100% the gfs will back down

You are a brave man! 100% at your peril! 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

21 hours ago, Cymro said:

Watch the GFS 12 upgrade further and then do a complete flip on the 00hrs only for the UKMO and ECM to come onboard. Almost certainly going head to head this week for a dramatic somewhat turbulent ride! 

Here’s my personal favourite for 850 hPa temps

Here’s my post from yesterday…the GFS didn’t make a complete flip but this morning’s output with such volatility in the finer details of the forecast the next few day’s are absolutely inevitable. 

Take a break and come back with some port, sherry and mince pies on Friday

[Model tweets]

47 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

 

And according to Judah Cohen we have been going into the armagedon winter of doom since time began

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

One data pint from Madrid makes a run an outlier Europe wide?

¡Exactamente! 

Why is it perceived this chart for Madrid is correct vs other runs?

Respuestas postales por favor

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Watch the GFS 12 upgrade further and then do a complete flip on the 00hrs only for the UKMO and ECM to come onboard. Almost certainly going head to head this week for a dramatic somewhat turbulent ride! 

Here’s my personal favourite for 850 hPa temps

[December 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests _ start of a new contest year]

1 minute ago, Frigid said:

Any guesses on where the CET will be if the GFS 6Z came to fruition? Pretty unlikely but it's one of the possibilities so shouldn't be discounted. Cold from Christmas day to months end.

I’m still quietly optimistic that my guess of 1.4 will be pretty close to the mark

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

An improvement this morning albeit not quite enough yet to bring most of Wales in the game for some festive weather but a few adjustments here and there and both Wales and Ireland should tap in on the action. 

 

Here's hoping for an upbeat positive day of modelling

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

46 minutes ago, IDO said:

There is no sign that the vortex to our NW will setup there. It looks like it will pass through, in line with the last couple of months. The Arctic high moving to Siberia means that the tPV chunks will move towards Greenland/NE Canada for the interim. The mean suggests it is transient.

D8-11: 

Hallelujah for some decorum and sense!

The polar vortex of doom posts are really tedious as are pinning hopes on SSW for any major cold outcomes. I much preferred observing the models before February 2018. 

Now we seem constantly fixed on MJO cycles and polar vortices post day 10! 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

20 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Just a comment on the model output in all honesty, the switch has been huge. We had a few cold days and a 2 minute shower of light snow, think most people seek more then that (granted, people have had more elsewhere).

If the models had been set out from last week on a period of mild weather then it wouldn't have been frustrating... but we've gone from what looked like a 48 hour mild blip followed by further cold to a longer mild period with heights over southern Europe that will be difficult to shift.

Plenty of winter to go but things could have been a lot better next week in the context of what they currently are.

“We had a few cold days” is just simply not accurate when we’ve had 8 CET means below 0! This hasn’t happened since 2010 and the beginning of December has been in the top 4 coldest starts to Winter in 300 years!

I haven’t seen much snow but can still appreciate that this is a noteworthy spell of below average temperatures in an exceptional year for quite the contrary! 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

34 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Northern England esp higher ground wins the white Christmas on this run.. 

Although unlikely at this range, most snow here is in fact on the High ground of Mid and North Wales. It's frustrating seeing commentary that always forgets Wales exists to the west of England! 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Next Wed is cold for all with a decent snow event for a large swathe of the midlands too!! 

And that beautiful landmass to it's West, Wales not that this is likely to verify this far out. Interesting all the same! 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo 144, not sure what to make of that different to GFS tho!

Almost definitely now a Squirrel and not a Hare!