[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Covering here now

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

It's coming home (to Wales) it's coming home (to Wales), SNOW is coming home (to Wales) LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'd rather 'Mae'r eira Yma o hyd'

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Snowing here albeit very finely 

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Im liking the look of Bae Ceredigion a lot at the moment

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

20 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

From 6pm till 12pm tomorrow

12pm in some places

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Until the GEFS/EPS come on board for an SSW I'm really struggling to find any interest in the potential for one, even if the Det does keep producing pretty red stratospheric on fire charts, they don't really mean anything on their own, yet they are of course what gets heavily focused on.

A substantially weaker vortex than we currently have looks very likely with u-wind strength dipping below average, both the GEFS & EPS agree on this much. But in terms of a major SSW? (i.e reversal/split type, a displacement doesn't cut it for us) No strong signal & that has been the case for quite a while now, despite the noise & (unfounded?) excitement across forums/social media. 

What a weakened upper strat means for us on the ground is tricky to say, but it wont be a BFTE, I think we can be pretty certain of that.

How can we be certain of anything post Sunday based on how this week's weather has progressed? 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Just a quick note from me here regarding uncertainty weekend onwards! 

Seldom do we see colder weather being prolonged these days yet this week is case in point. Our northerly toppler is now a cold spell lasting at least 7 days and will finally dent our record breaking mild start to January! 

The weather is never a foregone conclusion and the beauty of it is its always developing day on day. 

Today much of the western half of the UK is under weather warnings for between 5 - 15cm of snow. Only a few days back people were emphasising the lack of widespread or significant snow... Let's take measure of that tomorrow. Get the cold in first... 

Lastly so much emphasis on the Met forecast especially mid term and long-term predictions when often like the weather they quickly develop and change.

Here's two tweets from Marco Petagna only 4 days apart last week:

Enjoy the beauty of cold crisp air people it's a brilliant contrast to the last few weeks! 

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Snow showers will affect these areas through Tuesday afternoon and continue in many places overnight, and into Wednesday morning. Accumulations of a couple of centimetres are likely at low levels, with higher ground anywhere is the region potentially seeing 5-10 cm, and up to 15 cm for the higher ground in northern Northern Ireland, and mid / northern Wales. In addition, icy stretches are likely to form following showers.

 

Rhybudd eira am ran fwyaf o Gymru 

Snow warning for most of Cymru

 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

2 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

Judah cohen seems to think something is brewing.

 

To be fair Judah Cohen could find something actively brewing in an empty fridge he has a perpetual kettle for wintry weather! 

But I do agree with him this time! 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Have we not got a PV thread? 

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

27 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I feel like declaring unilateral Independence in the model thread this morning! 

And as if by magic my post has been removed!

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

2 minutes ago, Beanz said:

It does sound pedantic, not least because you’ve included about 7 counties of England in with Wales there…perhaps you should have acknowledged them

 

 

Merely recapturing lost lands

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

I feel like declaring unilateral Independence in the model thread this morning! 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Just now, Beanz said:

Umm…no, you mentioned Wales, so I’m quite sure the IMBY was your regional specific comment, mine was and still is generic.  

What in this set up indicates there will not be significant snow in parts of the UK over the next 7 days? 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

14 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I’m replying to a generic statement, I don’t think the original message was welsh specific..? 

Saying there won't be snow cover of significance in the next 7 days suggest you weren't being generic at all more IMBY as set ups like this deliver well down the western spine of the UK which is a rather significant landmass. 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

4 minutes ago, Beanz said:

There won’t be snow cover of any significance to give us that set up.  I am not seeing any compelling charts that make me think we’ll be under snow cover at any point in the next 7 days…not really 

Be careful with your use of us to quantify all who are members of this forum. In Wales these kind of setups produce some of our most widespread snow coverage. 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incoming!!  

Snow for France here yet again

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Big deal , as I live in England that will do , it's also into the low countries parts of  Wales / Scotland / N I Europe and Scandi just to cover other countries

I think you’ve missed my attempt at sarcasm at the blatant ignoration of other parts of the UK in your post, namely Wales with that huge chunk of snowfall! 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

35 minutes ago, MJB said:

Snow across England 17th 

Snow across France 17th 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

1 hour ago, Mariescb said:

And what wonderful news that is. The CET above average is an absolute blessing to the many thousands who are struggling with their energy bills. Let's hope the rest of winter carries on in the same manner.

Bizzare take as current wet weather rather than dry with low humidity actually often requires more heating to dry out the UK’s damp housing stock and could spell disaster for this year’s growing season with crops rotting in fields. Price of food has increase more than 10% in a year and lack of cold weather in winter is having a disasterous impact on agriculture across Europe! 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 Norway east until Get to far east of Russia.  Mongolia, China, Korea, Greenland, 2/3rds Canada, NE US…..just a few small areas

 BFTP

And Iceland don’t forget!

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Diflas yw'r ffordd ymlaen ar hyn o bryd yn anffodus

What a dark, dull wet and horrible start to January bar Monday! 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Deary me, we are in a dire situation now in terms of appreciable winter weather for the foreseeable future. Hopefully the end of January can at least settle down with high pressure taking more of an influence but between now and then I'm going to wax my flippers and buy a boat ! 

The only slither of positivity I can see is the replenishing of ground water levels following last year's drought! 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Can we just have an embargo on talking of SSW for a week and see how happy and merry we all are afterwards? Since the over analysation of the 2018 warming we’ve come to believe this is the be all and end all of UK cold spells when most prolonged cold spells in the UK haven’t actually been the consequence of a split PV and wind reversal!

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Blwyddyn newydd dda i chi gyd