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Cymro

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    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by Cymro
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    After getting down to -9.5 last night and a high of -2.3 the temperature is back on the way down again.

    This is the lowest over night min I’ve ever recorded without snow-cover! I hate to think how cold it would have been had Wales experienced more widespread deep snow-cover before today! 

    I think the cold is going to dig in further between now and Friday and wouldn’t at all be surprised we see a snow to rain event on the weekend that might even stay as snow with a bit of luck before a shorter less cold blip and back down again middle of next week. 

    Even with the lack of snow so far, what a great start to winter! 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    There are two things that strike me with the inevitable relaxation of this cold spell. 

    1) talk of mild is fraught with subjectivity because generally less cold seems to be the form horse (away from Scotland) rather than extensively mild conditions. 

    2) It could become generally mild temporarily, it could stay rather cold (stroke of luck) but looking at the bigger picture across the NH, HLB is especially prevalent and as such we are absolutely primed for further cold weather into the new year. 

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    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Cymro

    12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    More drama ! We now need another favour from the ECM for day 10.

    Needs to eject a shortwave se from the main upstream troughing .

    The two highs the Greenland one and the one over Spain mustn’t make First Contact .

    We need lower heights between the two.

    Can we all just sit back and appreciate Nick's continously insightful commentary on the models? 

    I must say I absolutely enjoy reading your summary on what's needed rather than what's shown it's invaluable when trying to learn how to read the charts. 

    Thanks Nick 👌

    • Like 26
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    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, andy989 said:

    Could contain: Weather, Outdoors, Nature, Car, Vehicle, Transportation, Ice, Snow
    More snow last night and I’ve been told it’s snowing down in Caernarfon at sea level. 

    Patience folks, we are only 2 days into the cold spell. With regards to “breakdown”, models always show breakdowns, ALWAYS. Every cold spell I remember it’s longevity was never known before hand, breakdowns were being shown but always out in FI and pushed back. Don’t worry until those “breakdowns” gather support and tick down from day 10 

    A lot are saying we're only 2 days into the cold spell but personally I'd say we're almost a week into below average temperatures with it turning distinctly colder from Wednesday so it's a pretty lengthy spell. 

    I agree though, patience is a virtue and distribution of disturbances will chop and change during this next week with many seeing snow at some point. 

    Lluniau hyfryd o Eryri ❄️ (lovely pics of Eryri in North Wales) 

    • Like 7

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Marcus_surfer said:

    I see Pembrokeshire dangler is in full force this morning ! This is something we haven't seen for a long time! Some might do well from this next few days. All depends on wind direction and temperatures though whether some northern and western parts see some flurries.

    Yn hollol! 

    We need the winds to veer slightly more W/NW as they are progged to do later today and overnight 😊 it will also be less marginal with the sub 528 dam covering all of Wales from this afternoon (this is key for snow below 100m in this setup) 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    49 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Evening all.Have an update regarding snow for NW England on Thursday. The snow model continues to show a period of snow inland 09-15z with highest accumulations up to 5cm in some places. . Expectancy level of 30% as of this instant.

    C

    This is good news and involves the old adage that when you get the cold in first precipitation often follows. How’s god’s country also known as Wales looking on the fine mesh snow predictions? 

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, geordiekev said:

    Pointless stressing over small  features at this stage. Would prefer the NH view re the macro pattern.

    I'd suggest people take a look at Winter 62/63 through Christmas to Feb as they had many LPs to contend with & they were both snow makers and block reinvigoraters.

    Chill

     

    Snow makers and block reinvigoraters coming to a cinema near you ❄️😉😁

    • Like 15
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