Lettucing Gutted
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Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
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Yeah, 2012 was the last one, at 12.6C to the 20th. The last year below 12.5C to the 20th was 1991, at 11.1C.
The first 20 days of June 1991 were in a league of their own there! Even the same periods in the cool Junes that returned post 2007 look hot compared to 11.1C! June 1991 had very potent northerly blasts in the first 20 days. Just imagine if that persisted 'til the end. We could have had our first sub 10C June and first sub 10C summer month!
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Which was the last year in which were below 13C to the 20th?
At a guess I would say 2012, though I don't know for certain. It was actually very cool until the last week, I remember the CET running well well below average for the majority of the month.
June 2011 and June 2013 also gave 2012 a run for its money in being the 1st sub 13C June since 1991. But in all 3 cases the chances of finishing below 13C were scuppered by timely hot spells.
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Does anyone know if there was a June 2012 CET thread? I tried to find one last night but had no luck.
There was a June 2012 thread and a lot of the CET threads end up in the archive although some have gone completely such as the September 2011 CET thread.
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The analogues for this summer so far are 1972 and 1997. Would be interested to hear born from the void of other analogue matches.
That's still a very conflicting picture. At 14.17C 1972 was a very cold summer though mostly due to one of the coldest Junes on record at 11.8C. On the other hand at 16.57C 1997 was a very warm summer though mostly due to the second hottest August on record at 18.9C.
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9.5C to the 1st
3.3c below the 61 to 90 average
*81 to 10 data not available at the time of posting*
That's the coldest start to June since 1989 which opened at 8.7C However despite that very cold start June 1989 finished with a mild CET of 14.6C and led to a very hot summer! History repeating perhaps?
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At 10.8C May 2015 is only the 3rd May to finish below 11C post 1996 along with 2010 (10.7C) and 2013 (10.2C). In between 1996 and 2010 the coldest May was 2005's balmy 11.4C! - still 0.2C above the 1961-1990 average! Also May 2015 is only the 1st month to finish below all post 1960 30 year averages post August 2014 and so far the only cool month of 2015.
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19C
Last sub 12C June in 1972. Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.
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I didn't realise it was that cold up to the final week either. I think it was during this month that Michael Fish said "At this rate, north easterly winds will become the prevailing wind direction!"
He was ultimately wrong about Northeasterlies becoming the prevailing wind direction. The last 18 years have been exceptionally Southwesterly!
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I'll be interested in reading all other opinions on the summer. If you want to verify this against hard numbers, I will say 13.9, 16.0 and 15.5 for CET June-Aug and 50%, 30% and 20% above normal rainfalls in those months. A specific time window for heavy and possibly flooding rainfall will be 16-20 June.
That's a very interesting summer forecast Roger. If that comes off it will only be the 2nd summer after 1987 along with 2011 were all 3 summer months finished below all 3 recent 30 year averages though only just so, especially for July.
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When you look at the table of record highs, it's interesting that in the second half of May, they are all from well back in the data, the most recent of them being 1953. For whatever reason, that part of the year has not shown much tendency to warming. We came close to one daily record in 2012 but with the exception of two days in 2008 the whole month is basically a blast from the past.
However, the period from 1869 to 1915 (a total of 47 years) fails to produce one record high while accounting for ten of the record lows.
Post 1996 May has had a lot of monthly CET warming despite the lack of record highs and record high monthly CETS. The warming for May has been driven by consistently mild and very mild Mays. Post 1996 there was been a complete lack of very cold Mays (Sub 10C) and even a lack of generic cold Mays (sub 11C) apart from 2010 and 2013. This is another key factor in the warming of May.
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A thunderstorm without any rain.I always find these storms slightly strange,don't tend to get them too often though!!.
Dry thunderstorms are common in the summer monsoon seasons of hot arid/semiarid climates like the Atacama, Southwest US, Sahara, Australian, South African, and Arabian, and Thar Deserts. Dry thunderstorms can also occur in the hot arid/semiarid climates occasionally in the non-summer seasons when cut-off lows from highly amplified upper level troughs invade the deserts.
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Rest in pieces 'spring' 2015!... 15.5C
Last sub 9C May in 1902. Last sub 10C May in 1996. Last sub 11C May in 2013.
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If I remember correctly a similar "Easterly Pong" occurred again in Mid-April 2008 albeit with a more Northeasterly source.
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As "The Who" once said, snowstorms all the way for miles and miles and miles!
I hate "muggy mild/hot and stormy" weather just as much as "hot/mild humid and calm sunny" weather. I hate all of the other storms with a passion unless they are accompanied by cold/very cold weather.-
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12c
Last sub 5C April in 1837. Last sub 6C April in 1986. Last sub 7C April in 1989. Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.
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Lots of "nearly" PM synoptics which would have given a decent number of snow days had it been just that bit colder, and far too many boring periods where there was no chance of frost.
I think "nearly PM synoptics" was a very good description (failing "Normal Zonality") of the sort of Zonality we had this winter. Whilst it seldom carried the ridiculous warmth of many all too common post 1987 Maritime Tropical winter Zonalities, the upper air (850 HPA) temperatures were still too mild (-5C and higher) to allow for the classic Cold Zonality of February 1968, January 1978, January 1984 and March 1995. If August 2014s PM synoptics had occurred in the winter I am 100% certain they would have delivered the goods.
The north-south temperature contrast, the frequent and powerful Atlantic storms, the common rapid changeovers of PM<>TM airmasses, the lack of proper air frosts and the lack of nationwide and decent wintry showers all speak volume of this type of "nearly PM synoptics/Normal Zonality".
"nearly PM synoptics" should be a new one for the netweather urban dictionary!
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Another winter goes out with a mild whimper instead of a frigid bang once again sadly, just like all the other 6 seasons before it. This topic is to discuss winter 2014/2015 in its aftermath. There is also a poll to give your own thoughts on how good/bad this winter was. For me winter 2014/2015 was just rubbish but I feel I probably would have had a somewhat higher opinion of it if this winter had followed a more decent winter such as winter 2012/2013 instead of the terrible "winter" 2013/2014! For a cold fan to get 2 rubbish winters on the bounce is a kick in the teeth.
I fear we may never see another proper cold season of any kind for a long time at least. 13 years past before winter 2008/2009 became the first proper cool/cold season after spring 1996 although there had been some occasional near average seasons during that period (autumn 1996, winter 1996/1997, summer 1998, winter 2005/2006, summer 2007, autumn 2007, summer 2008, and autumn 2008). But even more so now, there is just too much background warmth in the Global Climate System now. Post June 2013 we can barely scrape single cool/cold months like November 2013 and August 2014 let alone proper cold seasons.
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Unless 2015 performs a 1890/1950/1962/1981/1995/2010 style u-turn at the end, then March 2013's 2.7C will remain unbeaten for another year
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10C
Last sub 2C March in 1883. Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.
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Yet again, not a classic winter month but at least we avoid another record warm month after that very warm start.
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4.8c to the 30th
1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average
When you see such a big difference in the magnitude of the anomalies, of more than 0.5C, it really shows how much February has warmed over the last 30 years.
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Do you think there is any chance of us still beating Februaries 2013 and 2010 even if the HLB fails, BFTP? Or if the HLB finally arrives could we finally beat February 1996 or even February 1991?
Last sub 12C June in 1972. Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.
I hate "muggy mild/hot and stormy" weather just as much as "hot/mild humid and calm sunny" weather. I hate all of the other storms with a passion unless they are accompanied by cold/very cold weather.
June 2015 CET forecasts
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(
That would be an achievement in itself! The last time 2 consecutive sub 15C augusts occurred was 1985 and 1986!