Lettucing Gutted
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Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
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Damn, this poll was closed before I got a chance to vote! My answers would have been as follows:-
1) Yes I believe that CO2 is a Greenhouse Gas, capable of producing a warming effect.
2) All other feedbacks excluded, I expect a temperature increase of >2.5C (3C best case and 5C worst case) from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration alone.
3) Including all other feedbacks on top of a doubling of C02 I expect a global temperature increase of >6.5C (probably in the region of 20C give or take 2C if the worst possible scenarios happen).
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On 27/07/2016 at 11:03, PersianPaladin said:
Are the dynamic relationships really that simple? I'm not sure.
I agree that other factors have played a key role in the very mild and stormy yet amplified patterns of 2013 through 2016 such as the Hyper Nino, Positive Pacific North America pattern, Positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern, Arctic Ice melt, Stratospheric Cooling, Westerly QBO phase, and the exceptional European Heatwaves. However there is a very strong positive correlation between SSTs around southern Greenland/Labrador and the 500 hPa height anomalies over the same locations with cold water driving a powerful Greenland Polar Vortex/Trough and Positive NAO and Positive AO pattern whilst warm waters in the same locations help create or reinforce Northern Blocking over Greenland thus driving a Negative NAO and Negative AO pattern. Years back I remember Steve Murr and Summer Blizzard discussing at great lengths the links between SSTs and upper level patterns.
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On 24/07/2016 at 21:41, cheese said:
We had a min temp of 4C in late August 2012, in what was actually a marginally warmer than average month. That's the lowest temp in August I can find for here though. A frost in August would be a remarkable sight.
An even more impressive frosty August spell occurred in the very cold and stormy August bank holiday of 1986 when a southerly tracking Ex-Hurricane Charley collided with an exceptionally extensive and deep early autumn cold pool with sub 0C air at 850 HPA.
On 24/07/2016 at 21:53, cheese said:OTOH, early June can feel a lot like spring as opposed to summer. We had a max of 9C in June 2012 - that was cold, and of course the snow of 1975, when was the last time snow like that fell to low levels in September?
Snow last fell to low levels in September in 1919.
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Rest in pieces summer 2016! 21.5C
Last sub 13C August in 1912. Last sub 14C August in 1986. Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.
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On 11/07/2016 at 23:13, Man With Beard said:
That's a shocker. We'll need a pretty decent last third just to get above 16C.
Compared to an infamous July exactly 200 years ago we are in a heatwave now.
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Its remarkable that despite ending with the coldest October on record, a very cold 5.3C in 1740, the 1711-1740 October average was the warmest until 1801-1830.
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It depends on what landmass is most affected by the cooling Atlantic. Because the cold pool is nearer to Greenland, the Polar Vortex and cold air has been confined to Greenland which in turn has made our winters milder and stormier than ever before. However if the Atlantic cold pool displaces or extends towards Scandinavia, the Polar Vortex and cold air will centre over there which will make our winters colder and snowy.
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La Nina is gonna screw us over 1949 style from now on after El Nino has finally ended... 22C
Last sub 14C July in 1922. Last sub 15C July in 1988. Last sub 15.5C July in 2011.
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So the curse of December 2015 has returned. A very warm June looks practically guaranteed now.
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16 hours ago, lassie23 said:
Don't like humidity which tends to kick in come June, in London, last summer there were 2 months of pretty relentless high humidity, the temperature at midnight in July was 24.9c with high humidity levels.
I hate humidity and heat with a passion, so I know how you feel mate. The problem is that humidity and ridiculous mildness is now lasting all year with even November and December producing countless humid mild wet days with double digit minima!
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The return periods between each new warm record are practically non-existent now and so its only a matter of time before the next one.
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The season of warmest dread has arrived... 20.5C
Last sub 12C June in 1972. Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.
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ah happy memories
May 2016 is a far cry from 1996... -
In the short term south asia, especially India and Pakistan and Nepal and Bangladesh will get colder, especially in autumn, winter and spring, as frigid Continental Polar and Arctic air masses would no longer be barred by the Himalayas from surging due south from Siberia. On the other hand eastern asia including Siberia, Mongolia, Japan, Vietnam, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and China would get hotter as hot Continental Tropical and Maritime Tropical air masses from India, Pakistan and the North Indian Ocean will no longer be barred by the Himalayas from soaring due northeast and east. The warming in the far east would also be enhanced by the weakened Northeast Winter Monsoon caused the rapid and strong warming of Siberia.
However in the long term there would be Global Warming as there would be less chemical weathering to remove CO2 out of the atmosphere.
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15 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:
That's a shame craig, it really is.
Do you honestly think that every month will break the all time mild, warm or hottest records though?
Genuine question.
Yes I do think that any month now has the chance of being the warmest on record. All of our airmass source regions, especially the poles are exceptionally warm as is our local climate in the UK and CET zone.
Apart from 2010 no year after 1987 has failed to produce at least 1 month in the joint top 20 warmest on record and the return period between each new warm record is now no more than 4 years. In contrast record cold months last occurred in February 1947 although September 1952, July 1954, August 1956, March 1962, January 1963, July 1965, June 1972, December 1981, February 1986, April 1986, August 1986, May 1996, December 2010 and March 2013 nearly but failed to become cold records. After 1996 even joint top 20 coldest on record months have become almost absent apart from July 2007, December 2010, July 2011, April 2012, June 2012, March 2013, May 2013, June 2013, August 2014 and September 2015.
Whilst at first glance it looks like we have had a lot of cold exceptions, especially post 2009, it must be remembered that most of those exceptions have occurred in the April through September period. During this time the anomaly gap between the coldest groups for these months and any 30 year average is considerably less than that of equivalent cold groups for the October through March period. This means that a joint top 20 cold month from the April through September period is not as impressive as a joint top 20 cold month from the October through March period.
I'm sure the facts and stats posted by Born From The Void in recent CET threads, especially December 2015, will speak for themselves. BFTV is the new Stratos Ferric.
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On 26/04/2016 at 8:42 PM, DAVID SNOW said:
Craig, with respect, but why do you bother entering the CET competition every month?
Because it is the only thing I feel comfortable in joining in with on netweather these days.
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Rest in pieces 'spring' 2016!... 17.5C
Last sub 9C May in 1902. Last sub 10C May in 1996. Last sub 11C May in 2015.
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On 30/03/2016 at 10:05 PM, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
Roger
That is really some work my friend, and thanks for sharing it. I agree as reversal either way isn't immediate....my analogy is an aging good team doesn't become a bad team overnight and still produce great games....but they do run out of steam eventually to become overrun by the opposition...
best regards
BFTP
In terms of the CET what are the first things you are looking for in the new grand minima? A proper cold spring last seen in 2013? A proper cold summer last seen in 2011? A proper cold autumn last seen in 1993? A proper cold winter last seen in 2010/2011? Or a combination of the above or a proper cold year last seen in 2010. Also do you still expect any of these changes in 2016? Also do you expect a proper global response to the minima unlike the mere "plateauing" of temps from 1998 through 2011 and the Bob Beamon warming of 2012 through 2015?
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It will be remarkable if April is the coldest month of 2016.
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14C
Last sub 5C April in 1837. Last sub 6C April in 1986. Last sub 7C April in 1989. Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.
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I absolutely hated it. It was unbelievably and ridiculously depressing and bloody rubbish and bloody horrible. It was also as physically and mentally challenging as a record breaking heatwave a'la late June through early July 2015 to name just the worst of countless heatwaves I've suffered in my time. I picked "The worst one on this planet" but if I could have picked more than 1, I would have also picked "Absolutely disgusting" and "What? You think we even had a Winter??". Just when I thought I had seen 'em all eh?, somehow I managed to experience the worst winter on record. Ridiculously warm, a ridiculous number of named storms, a sh*tload of rain and the warmest December on record. Pass me the bucket indeed!
Even January and February were a joke! Too many false promises of cold spells that never came and the few pitiful washout topplers and faux colds in January and February could not possibly save this so called winter. The worst thing was that I predicted the warmest December on record and yet even I was too low! Rest In Pieces "Winter" 2015/2016!
A big fat 0/10!
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The problem is that since the lions share of aerosols come from burning fossil fuels would it even be possible to increase aerosols without increasing CO2 (the villain of the piece) even further and faster? The only way possible would be via Carbon Capture and Sequestering - a technology itself only in its infancy and very costly.
Better still, assuming all else fails of course, would be a chemical that breaks down the major greenhouse gasses apart from water vapour. Such a chemical would have to be used very carefully to avoid causing runaway cooling and should be focused initially on those areas most sensitive to the greenhouse effect in terms of tipping points and amplification which are currently the Poles and the rainforests.
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Despite my usual reputation for exceptionally warm predictions, I also believe that proper cold months e.g. sub 3C CET winter months are still possible, at least for now... However my main concern is that the return period for most varieties of cold months for all 12 months of the year is rapidly increasing. Already the exceptionally long period of February 1997 through December 2009 is dramatically longer than the next longest period without sub 3C CET winter months.
In complete contrast we are seeing all kinds of warm records being beaten or approached every year whilst even the coldest months and seasons of the post 1987 Bob Beamon Warming era rarely scrape into the top 30. This is even more so post January 1997 and post June 2013.
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12C
Last sub 2C March in 1883. Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.
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Last sub 13C August in 1912. Last sub 14C August in 1986. Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.
May 2016 is a far cry from 1996...
Stopping Dangerous Global Warming
in Climate Change
Posted · Edited by Lettucing Gutted
Those are very good suggestions iapennell however I have also seen other potentially effective proposals from various places on the net such as these:-
1) Use cloud seeding to increase the thickness and extent of Marine Stratus and Stratocumulus cloud decks especially over the Subtropical and Tropical Oceans to reflect more sunlight into space.
2) Use powerful space mirrors to reflect summer sunlight away from the polar regions in their respective summers.
3) Fertilise the oceans with minerals such as Iron to increase biological productivity which would remove C02 from the atmosphere.
4) Use powerful radio beams to breakdown atmospheric methane.
5) Develop some organism to remove atmospheric CO2 such as the Azolla Algae which aided in the slow termination of the last Paleocene-Eocene Greenhouse era.
6) Accelerate chemical weathering to remove atmospheric C02 in the worlds mountain ranges such as the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayan complex. Incidentally the building of the Tibetan Plateau and other mountain ranges also played a key role in the long 54 million year transition from the last Paleocene-Eocene Greenhouse era to the last Quaternary Icehouse era.