[July 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts]

El Nino is gonna screw us over December 2015 style from now on after El Nino has finally comeback without a proper La Nina...  22C    Last sub 14C July in 1922.  Last sub 15C July in 1988.  Last sub 15.5C July in 2011.

[June 1995]

Its strange you compare this month to June 1995.  That month finished very close to average with the cold first half and warm second largely cancelling each other out.  This month however looks odds on to be a very warm June and at least the warmest since 1976 if not 1846.

[June 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts]

I might be the only one to have guessed too high!

[June 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts]

15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised the mean is quite as high as it is, expect a levelling off in the coming days and a rise by Sunday.. not expecting the average spell to extend through the middle of the month.. the warming phase will break at some stage, my bet in August!

As the months go by in 2017, the odds are increasing on 2017 being the first calender year not to record any cool months.  Already we have had non-calender periods of more than 12 months spanning 2 years without any cool months.  The most notable examples are in 1959/1960 and 2002/2003 and 2004/2005 and 2006/2007 and 2007/2008.

[Spring 2017 Thoughts, hopes, wishes, forecasts etc...]

On ‎02‎/‎06‎/‎2017 at 12:44, Relativistic said:

I think I'd kill just to see another Spring 2013 before I die.

Me too.  Sadly it will probably take some freak event for that to happen anytime soon again such as a highly explosive volcanic eruption, North Atlantic Drift shutdown or the Eurotrash High and Polar Vortex trading places.

[Annual CET]

Bear in mind that 2014 had a cold sub 15C August and a near average sub 6C December, it won't take much for 2017 to catch up and beat 2014 if the warmth continues to the end of the year.

[June 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts]

For the first time ever in the records of CET competitions there is not a single guess below the 1961-1990 or 1971-2000 averages.

[Am I the only one here who loves drizzle?]

10 hours ago, davehsug said:

I can't remember the last time I saw "real" drizzle here. You usually have to be on the coast or in the hills these days. I assume it's something to do with cleaner air & the droplets having no smoke particles to form on?

I think the main reason for the lack of drizzle is the lack of moist but cool and stable easterly and northerly  synoptics.  Another drizzle and mist maker for southwest facing coasts in the UK is the Maritime Tropical southwesterly but event this setup doesn't deliver drizzle like it use to due to warm SSTs combined with increased cyclonicity which increase vertical mixing and reduces low stratus formations necessary for drizzle.

[June 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts]

20.5C    Last sub 12C June in 1972.  Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.

[Am I the only one here who loves drizzle?]

Drizzle is my fave precip after snow!  Sadly though at least in my location in Lancashire, drizzle has become much rarer since 2012.

[What would your ultimate poorest summer be like?]

Since I can't edit my original post, I'll post some extra stuff here.

From past CET months in my lifetime this is the worst summer for me:-

June 2003 16.1C

July 2006 19.7C

August 1995 19.2C

 

From past CET months before my lifetime this is the worst summer for me:-

June 1846 18.2C

July 1983 19.5C

August 1975 18.7C

[What would your ultimate poorest summer be like?]

Anything with summer nights much above 10C and days above 20C is way too hot but I suppose my worst possible summer is one like Rajasthan's in the build up to the "summer" monsoon were nights are always near 35C and days on their way to 60C.

[Climate change study at Cambridge Bay, Resolute and Eureka, NU, Canada (1940 to 2022)]

Alberta must be the most poleward location to see 20C+ temperatures in the main winter months.  Its at least the most continental location to see those ridiculous summer like temperatures in the 3 main winter months!

Chinooks do seem very variable in their temperatures, at least in winter.  This suggests that the exact source and track of the Pacific air is important.  Those ridiculous winter 20C+ temperatures would require Maritime Tropical on a "Pineapple Express" track far from the southwest.  Maritime Polar westerlies or northwesterlies should only give Chinooks with temperatures slightly above 10C in winter whereas Maritime Arctic northwesterlies would give Chinooks with temperatures slightly below 10C in winter.

[May 2017 C.E.T. forecasts]

Rest in pieces 'spring' 2017!...  17.5C    Last sub 9C May in 1902.  Last sub 10C May in 1996.  Last sub 11C May in 2015.

[April 2017 C.E.T. forecasts]

14C    Last sub 5C April in 1837.  Last sub 6C April in 1986.  Last sub 7C April in 1989.  Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.

[March 2017 C.E.T. forecasts]

12C    Last sub 2C March in 1883.  Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.

[February 1994 cold snowy second half]

On ‎05‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 22:04, Snowyowl9 said:

I remember the wind coming from the SE from this to start with snow and drifting,seemed a strange direction after the classic 80`s easterlies,it was SSE to start.

Southeasterlies are a surprisingly common wind direction for winter cold spells involving both Continental Polar air and snow events.  With easterly setups involving snow events, the deep southerly tracking troughs/lows attacking from the southwest often have a negative (Northwest-Southeast) tilt and/or the ridges from the Scandi High start to sink further south into Eastern Europe which causes the Continental Polar to return from further south in Europe.  This effect was very common even in the classic winters of the 20th Century and probably the Little Iceage judging by the 19th Century.

[February 2017 C.E.T. forecasts]

Rest in pieces 'winter' 2016/2017!  10C    Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C February in 2010.  Last sub 3.5C February in 2013.

[What song would sum up your winter so far ?]

Too little too late by Johnny Mathis.

[Predictions for 2017?]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

maybe 16th! Wimb Final

It might be called off if it gets that hot!

 

3 hours ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

You are Nathan Rao and I claim my five pounds.

I beg your pardon.  I am Craig Evans, not Nathan!

[2016 overview]

I hated this year!  January through March and December were all god awfully mild and wet, just like the monsoonal December 2015!  Yes, December this year was cooler and drier but that wasn't hard to achieve and so it was yet again another very mild and unsettled one!  The summer (including May and September) was just too bloody muggy and humid with no respite unlike many other recent summers.  October was just boring with dry and consistently slightly mild weather.  Only April and November were seasonably cool and enjoyable for me.  These 2 are also the only months to break another otherwise endless mild train post September 2015.  This sequence of months was very similar to 1989 albeit with July and November 2016 being somewhat cooler and March, April, June, August and September 2016 somewhat milder than their 1989 counterparts.  2/10   I now await the lynch mob...

[How often should we expect a very cold December?]

The biggest crumb of comfort for cold/winter fans is that despite the recent rapid deterioration and warming of December post 2010, December shows both the least warming and least loss of degree of cold compared to all of the other month in the christmas pudding.

[January 2017 C.E.T. forecasts]

9.5C    Last sub -3.0C January in 1795.  Last sub -2.0C and sub -1.0C January in 1963.  Last sub 0C January in 1979.  Last sub 1C January in 1987.  Last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C January in 2010.

[Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17]

On ‎15‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 15:29, Ravelin said:

Seems rather high. I'm in NE and for here Met Sunday high is forecast 8/9C. Even Lossiemouth, which is on the Moray coast is only forecast for 11C. There is a SW wind forecast, which will help with a Fohn effect, but it isn't exactly forecast to be strong.

The Fohn Effect combined with long draw Maritime Tropical southwesterlies and southerlies  has been known to bring temperatures in the lee of High Ground as high as 18C even in December and January with 19C recorded in February 1998!

[Predictions for 2017?]

31 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

I dunno what it is cheese, but I think we're due something like those three. I mean I could be totally wrong and 1976's record goes. 

I find it remarkable that in the early years of this century we have already broken the spring and autumn warm seasonal CET records, yet summer and winter have not yet done the same.