Lettucing Gutted
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The minimum today is 9.6C, while maxima look like being around the mid 15s, so a drop to about 13.1C looks likely on tomorrows update.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:
13.1C to the 4th (13.1: -1.6)13.0C to the 5th (12.7: -2.5)13.0C to the 6th (12.8: -2.3)13.0C to the 7th (13.3: -1.7)13.0C to the 8th (12.9: -2.1)12.9C to the 9th (12.4: -2.3)13.1C to the 10th (14.2: -0.5)13.4C to the 11th (16.9: +2.1)13.7C to the 12th (17.3: +2.8]Looks like remaining cool in the reliable time frame, before a sharp warm after the 10th. Probably a top 5 coolest first week in the last 50 years.Compared to what was originally expected by most people methinks this "cold spell" has turned out to be a damp squib with the first 6 days CET failing to average below 13C. So 1992 remains the last time this happened. It also seems there is yet another September Indian Summer on the way. Certainly not what I want in the autumn.
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The cold pool seems to have weakened a tad to my eye and one mustn't forget the positive anomalies in the western Atlantic and Davis Strait
Yeah great point there. I hate to admit it but this looks like a strong signal for a +NAO and +AO to me sadly.
When you look at the Nino years, SST anomalies for winter and summer, the composite shows negative anomalies in the Atlantic for both seasons.
Summer
winter Those are some very surprising anomalies there. The Arctic looks very cold here and yet I always remember reading that the Arctic becomes ridiculously warm during El Nino years. Similarly I remember reading that South East Asia/Australasia usually get heatwaves and fires during El Nino years and yet the SSTs are unusually cool there too in these charts.
On another note I wonder how the extreme ranges of the CET this century will respond to the Atlantic cooling if it continues and intensifies.
Will we be seeing more warm/hot CETs like these or even warmer?:-
-January 2007 7C
-February 2002 7C
-March 2012 8.3C
-April 2011 11.8C
-May 2008 13.4C
-June 2003 16.1C
-July 2003 19.7C
-August 2003 18.3C
-September 2006 16.8C
-October 2001 13.3C
-November 2011 9.6C
-December 2006 6.5C
Or will we be finally seeing more cool/cold CETs like these or even cooler?:-
-January 2010 1.4C
-February 2010 2.8C
-March 2013 2.7C
-April 2012 7.2C
-May 2013 10.4C
-June 2012 13.5C
-Julys 2007 and 2011 15.2C
-August 2014 14.9C
-September 2012 13C
-October 2003 9.2C
-November 2010 5.2C
-December 2010 -0.7C
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Hopefully the last ever!
14.4C for me.
Have no fear. Your wish shall come true.
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17C
Last sub 11C September in 1952. Last sub 12C September in 1986. Last sub 13C September in 1994.
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With some mild nights coming up i cant see it tbh.
Indeed, we might even finish in the 17s for the first time since 2004 ending a 10 year run of sub 17C Augusts, the longest run since 1960 through 1974.
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With a minimum today of 12.3C and maxima likely to reach about 21C, we should see an increase to 16.4C on tomorrows update.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:
16.6C to the 6th (17.7: +0.5)16.5C to the 7th (15.5: -1.4)16.4C to the 8th (16.2: -0.6)16.4C to the 9th (16.6: -0.3)16.6C to the 10th (17.8: +0.9)16.6C to the 11th (16.8: +0.1)16.6C to the 12th (17.2: +0.4)16.8C to the 13th (18.5: +2.3)16.8C to the 14th (16.5: -0.2)The next 10 days look like being about 0.1C above the 81-10 average, while the next 5 days should be about 0.4C below the 81-10 average.It looks like were on track for a consistently mild month with minor variability compared to the cooler but very variable June and July we have just had.
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14.5 after massive downward correction.
That'll be the coldest since 1986! Although only just beating 1993. It will be very remarkable if we get another sub 15C August this year. The last time we had 2 consecutive sub 15C Augusts was 1985-1986.
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Have we jumped into October? my guess of 18 degrees has quickly gone down the pan, I think many are probably surprised how much of a cooldown we are seeing, a significant one, likely to end up possibly the greater fall in CET values from start to finish since I don't know how long - any stats?
I would have thought November 2010 would have had the biggest fall from start to finish. Recently March 2013 also had a big fall from start to finish. Since late winter through midsummer months are usually "warming months" its very unusual to get any significant drop let alone a big drop in these months.
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Stonking period of weather that, I wish I was there to experience it. Must have been incredible.
Also incredible. Could that be the earliest yearly maximum ever?
I think for the country as a whole but I believe that some parts of the country recorded their highest yearly maximum in March in 1965.
It's the new OPI!
or the JPI. July Pattern Index!
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Rest in pieces summer 2015! 20C
Last sub 13C August in 1912. Last sub 14C August in 1986. Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.
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Looking at the CET data the last time there was 3 years without a sub 17C July was back in 1899-1901. Along with 1868-1870 that is the longest run on record. 2013-2015 could well equal this.
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The monsoon there is about May-August, but as a rule it is caused by tropical air (the ITCZ) moving north. Shouldn't be bringing down cold air masses (if you can call 17-18C cold)- air from the North would have come from Russia which is normally warmer than that this time of year.
Judging by the article it seems the "cool spell" was probably caused by evaporative cooling due to heavy rain falling and evaporating into a shallow surface layer of cool Maritime Polar air from the Sea Of Japan/North Pacific. If the cool air had come from Russia (Continental Polar air) conditions would have been dry instead of wet.
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1923 seems a close parallel of sorts although the very warm days that year experienced came in the middle of July rather than the start.From the 10th of July through to the 9th of August however the average drops from above 22C to just over 17C. If we don't get the benefits of another plume I think it's feasible that the mean CET could drop away to such a level.
It's funny you mention 1923. After looking at the CET data 1923 is the only cool summer (near sub 15C) to have a very warm July in the 17Cs.
Leeds average so far for July is 16.3C, down 6 degrees on the 30 year average. We have had 5 days where the temperature was up by 4 degrees C on the average.
If 16.3 is 6 degrees below average that means that Leeds get very warm Julys on average at a subtropical 22.3C!
Global Warming on TWO is anticipating a cet up to the 23rd of 16.67. I'm wondering if el Nino is making our Azores high weak at the moment hence our cet collapse?
If anything I'd say it's more of a case of the cool Atlantic and the return of Northern Blocking offsetting the warming effects of El Nino and weakening the Azores High and Icelandic Low. Usually El Nino gives us warm or hot summers.
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what would the driver be for the instability ??.
The instability would be driven by the sharp vertical temperature contrast between the deep very cold airmass and the warmer ice-free water or snow free land. The instability would be further enhanced by the steep lapse rate created by the very cold upper level air.
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I know supercells can form along frontal zones but I am specifically talking about a supercell forming solely in Arctic or very cold polar air that becomes very unstable without any warm and humid tropical/subtropical/mid latitude air being involved.
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I know we can easily get thunderstorms during polar and arctic outbreaks including the best, Thundersnow! I have also read in my old weather books that severe thunderstorms occurred during the east US Blizzard Of January 1996 as well as the east US Blizzard Of March 1993. I have also read the reports on Mr Data's threads about the cold spells of October 1922 and October 1926 which both mentioned severe thunderstorms occurring over parts of the UK during those cold spells. But would such severe thunderstorms in Arctic air be actual supercells or just severe non-supercell thunderstorms such as squall lines or Mesoscale Convective Complexes or even just severe isolated non-supercell storms?
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I predict the Minimum Of Arctic Ice this year will be less then 2.km. The bad news from the Arctic never ends these days. So much for the cooling North Atlantic.
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I hope even my guess doesn't prove to be too low... Were going to be well above 20C for a while.
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On 27/06/2015 at 2:20 PM, BornFromTheVoid said:
There might be a chance of breaking some records at the start of July.
The record high mean temps for first 2 days are:
1st 22.9C
2nd 22.8C
UK warming is back with a vengeance. The warmest year on record (2014) followed by more summer heat records.
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I chose the "Quite cool. Temps ranging between 15 to 20*C. Nothing warmer" option for my ideal "Summer Of Heaven". So far I appear to be the only 1 who chose this option. Additionally as well as cool, I would like summer to be dry and only slightly wet at worst with any wetness due to light rain, light showers and drizzle. I would also like any storms and showers to be of the "Low Precipitation" form (as the Americans say
). I hate heavy rain, floods and monsoons as well as heat. As long as its cool/cold I don't mind whether its sunny or cloudy. I also prefer calm or light breezes. No blowtorch Azores/Bartlett High and Atlantic Low driven hairdryers or muggy Atlantic mush please.-
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Aren't the June 1961-90 and 1971-2000 CET averages the same?
If I'm not mistaken the June 1971-2000 CET along with October are the only ones to be below the 1961-1990 mean though only slightly.
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Looking at the latest 12z GFS, the CET would probably be around 14.2C before corrections.
So no real chance of beating the 81-10 average, but a slight chance of catching the 61-90 values.
I hate these months that tease us with being the coldest for a long time only to finish average or even above in the end!
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20C
Last sub 14C July in 1922. Last sub 15C July in 1988. Last sub 15.5C July in 2011.
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My ideal year would be a very cold year with a cold winter, cold spring, cold summer and cold autumn all included and would be made out of these months:-
January 1963 (-2.1C)
February 1986 (-1.1C)
March 2013 (2.7C)
April 1917 (5.4C)
May 1902 (8.9C)
June 1916 (11.8C)
July 1965 (14C)
August 1956 (13.5C)
September 1952 (10.7C)
October 1817 (6.4C)
November 1919 (3.3C)
December 2010 (-0.7C)
Year CET 6.07C!
I would have chosen the all of the coldest months on record but 22nov10blast beat me to it!
I must admit, I find Summer Blizzard's choice unusual. A cool/very cold late summer through late winter period yet with a very warm early spring through mid summer period. Hyper continental! Not even countries like Alaska, Canada and Russia and Scandinavia can pull that off!
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winter 
Last sub 11C September in 1952. Last sub 12C September in 1986. Last sub 13C September in 1994.
October 2015 CET
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Lettucing Gutted
I haven't started one of these for a very long time so here goes. Make your CET guesses without penalties before the 1st October. After that guesses can only be made with penalties until the end of the 3rd October.
My guess is 14C.
Last sub 6C October in 1740. Last sub 7C October in 1896. Last sub 8C October in 1992. Last sub 9C October in 1993.