Lettucing Gutted
-
Posts
1,109 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
-
-
Rest in pieces 'winter' 2015/2016! 10C
Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986. Last sub 2C February in 1991. Last sub 3C February in 2010. Last sub 3.5C February in 2013.
-
4
-
-
In a perfect world I'd like my year to be:-
January 1979
February 1986
March 2013
April 1986
May 1816
June 1816
July 1816
August 1816
September 1986
October 1919
November 1919
December 2010
-
1
-
-
Since we are once again stuck in yet another relentless mild train period I think it's time for the antithesis of the "just for fun when will be the next proper above average month" thread.
So just for fun of course, when do you think the next proper below average month will occur. By "proper" I mean a month that is at least 0.5C colder than the coldest of the 1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 CET averages. For all months of the year this is the 1961-1990 average although June and October were slightly cooler in the 1971-2000 average than the other 2 modern averages.
Since August seems to be the only month that shows any signs of cooling beyond 1 year now (at least post 2004) I predict that August 2016 will be the first proper cold month since September 2015 if not March 2013. However we remain stuck in a strong El Nino and possibly the longest multiyear El Nino since 1990-1995 so I won't be surprised if 2016 becomes the first year to record no cool months at all. Also strong La Nina years seem not to favour proper cold months either with November and December 2010 and summer 2011 perhaps being very cold outliers in strong La Nina years.
-
On 30/12/2015 at 5:09 PM, Ed Stone said:
Was it really? I was in Penge in February 2012, and apart from a week or so (and a few flakes of snow) it was nothing out of the ordinary...
Another thing that has surprisingly been forgotten about is that February 2012 had one of the warmest second halves on record.
-
2016 will be a very horrible year and the hottest on record at 15.5C CET. The Globe will average 16C making it the hottest year on record Globally. This summer the polar jet reaches the Artic, dies and leaves a "weak polar stream" swirling around a dying Greenland PV. The subtropical jet also reaches the Artic and replaces the dead polar jet. A main "weak subtropical stream" swirls around the North Pole whilst an even weaker "weak subtropical stream" merges with the last "weak polar stream" swirling around the dying Greenland PV. The African Monsoon Trough finally jumps the Sahara and Mediterranean into Europe and affects Britain and Europe from the 1000mb to the 500mb level with an outflow ridge on top to form the British Monsoon system. The British Monsoon forms a monster Mid-Atlantic Ridge and a monster Bartlett Ridge sending heatwaves to obliterate the last of the Artic Ice. Britain always remains mild if not very mild in winter and always remains hot if not very hot in the other seasons but swings from flood to drought so many times you just can't keep up! Britain gets monster floods from the interaction of the British Monsoon with Spanish Plumes which also create Supercell Thunderstorms and F5 Twisters. However Britain also gets monster droughts when ex-hurricanes and/or rare "weak stream" troughs send the monster Mid-Atlantic Ridges toppling over Britain and merging into the monster Bartlett Ridges.
January the warmest on record 9.5C
February the warmest on record 10C
March the warmest on record 12C
April the warmest on record 14C
May the warmest on record 17.5
June the warmest on record 20.5C
July the warmest on record 22C
August the warmest on record 21.5C
September the warmest on record 19C
October the warmest on record 15.5C
November the warmest on record 13C
December the warmest on record 12C
2016 will be the Bob Beamon Year of CET Warming.
-
3
-
-
Not only have we just suffered the warmest December on record, but just to add insult to my injury even I was 0.7C too low! Damn!
At least in all the years since I started posting CET predictions in May 2007 this is also the first time that everyone has predicted too low. The first and only other time I was too low was September 2010 when I predicted 13.4C. However unlike December 2015, September 2010 was only slightly above average at 13.8C. This is the first time I was too low with a record warm month. Oh well I knew it was bound to happen sooner than later. It can also be comfortably said that December has also finally left August as the only cooling month post 2010 which has been cooling slightly and erratically post 2004. CET Warming Stage 4 here we come.. 14 hours ago, AderynCoch said:So there we have it - surely the worst winter month ever recorded. This after a terrible November too.
Mother Nature owes us big time after the fail year of 2015.
The problem is, I fear that we may be paying big time for the recent classics of December 2009 through December 2010 and January through June 2013.
11 hours ago, Nick L said:Let's lock that December away and never speak of it again...
Amen to that! Rest in pieces December 2015!
-
3
-
-
CET Warming Stage 4 here we come. 9.5C
Last sub -3.0C January in 1795. Last sub -2.0C and sub -1.0C January in 1963. Last sub 0C January in 1979. Last sub 1C January in 1987. Last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C January in 2010.
-
3
-
-
My fantasy winter would be the complete opposite of most winters in my life which are the mild garbage dominated ones. You know 1987/1988, 1988/1989, 1989/1990, 1991/1992, 1992/1993, 1993/1994, 1996/1997, 1997/1998, 1998/1999, 1999/2000, 2000/2001, 2001/2002, 2002/2003, 2003/2004, 2004/2005, 2005/2006, 2006/2007, 2007/2008, 2011/2012, 2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016.
My fantasy winter would be as cold as 1986/1987, 1990/1991, 1995/1996, 2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 if not colder.
My fantasy winter would also be dominated by 1 or more if not all of the following charts:-
-http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101201.gif (December Continental Polar Easterly)
-http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870112.gif (January Continental Polar Easterly)
-http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860210.gif (February Continental Polar Easterly)
-http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1981/Rrea00119811212.gif (December Continental Polar Northerly)
-http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1958/Rrea00119580122.gif (January Continental Polar Northerly)
-http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1969/Rrea00119690208.gif (February Continental Polar Northerly)
-http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1914/Rrea00119141219.gif (December Maritime Polar Cold Zonality)
-http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gif (January Maritime Polar Cold Zonality)
-http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960225.gif (February Maritime Polar Cold Zonality)
I would also like the above cool/cold charts to dominate spring, summer and autumn however the Continental Polar Easterly never occurs in the late May through mid October period and is as rare as hens teeth in the mid October through late November period and the early March through late May period.
-
2
-
-
I'd stake my life and all my money on this being a future winter of the 2000-2050 period. However I also stake all my money and my life on even worse winters than this setting in before 2100. I believe winters in 2050-2100 will start to resemble those of 2000s northern India.
-
On 13/12/2015 at 9:55 PM, Don said:
Well, looking at the CFSv2 outlook for the next few months, the remarkable mildness is only only going to continue. I know some don't rate this model but it has been ultra consistent for months now with its exceptional mild signal for winter and so far, it's being proved correct. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see that 70f recorded before winter's out. I think Winter 2015/16 could well be a real eye opener.......
and what next? 30C in March and April and October? 40C in summer and September? Worrying times!
16 hours ago, pegg24 said:When the January average CET forecasts comes up on here, going to be Interesting
to see what people put temperature wise with how wrong we all have been in December me included.
Since even I look like being at least 0.5C to 1C too low I know what I'm gonna forecast. I am gonna forecast a warm month (not just January) 1.4C to 1.9C above the previous warm record!
-
12 hours ago, Scorcher said:
Maybe us mild fans should be hoping for below average SSTs in the North Atlantic every winter....
Obviously this would not be ideal in summer, however. It does make you wonder though about how much impact the area of below average SSTs well out in the Atlantic actually does impact us, especially when you consider that in fact the waters closest to us have actually been above average recently.
I highly doubt this very mild pattern has been driven by the cold North Atlantic SSTS. I believe it is the case of a potentially cold Atlantic driven pattern being completely overridden by a very mild Hyper El Nino and +PDO driven pattern in the Pacific. After looking at the SST anomaly charts I can even see that there is still more warm anomalies than cold ones even in the North Atlantic which is reinforcing the very mild Pacific pattern with a +AO and +NAO. I also believe Thunderbolt's theory of the latent heat from the hot Euro summer enhancing the Euro High. That in turn is also bolstering the forcing from the Pacific.
8 hours ago, Costa Del Fal said:Don't mean to be pedantic here and instead helpful for learning but not sure your use of the term latent heat is correct in this sense here. Latent heat as I know it refers to the heat absorbed or released in a change of phase such as solid to liquid.
Instead of the classical definition, I think Thunderbolt simply used the term Latent Heat as a quick way of saying that it was the residual heat in the ground from the hot summer in Europe that is heating the air and promoting the Euro High.
-
1
-
-
17 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:
has there ever been a December where no days have come in below the average CET value?
We came very close in December 2013. Only 1 day, the 11th, was below the 1961-1990 monthly average and even then only by a whisker whilst the 6th and Christmas Eve equalled it.
On 06/12/2015 at 6:36 PM, I remember Atlantic 252 said:my 7.1C looks too low, how could I remember Atlantic 252 guess too low in a 'winter' month????????????? many will think
Even my "hot" 9C is looking shaky and too low already! I wouldn't be surprised if we see a CET warm record smashed by the biggest amount since May 1833.
-
On 22/08/2013 19:36:56, Paul said:
you can select mobile skin from the change theme link on the bottom left of every page.
The "change theme" link is now gone. I'm not happy about this. When I log in, I always use "change theme" to change the skin back to the old but colourful pre 2010 netweather skin. I've never liked the recent black and white skins.
-
Rest in pieces 2015! 9C
Last sub 0C, last sub 1C, last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 4C December all in 2010.
-
1
-
-
I think this will be the first time ever that everyone has forecasted too low for the CET. If we finish on 11C we will need a whopping 0.5C downward correction just to reach my guess!
-
1
-
-
I have a bad feeling even I might have gone too low! Oh well what's done is done... Another thing, I wonder if we might achieve the smallest fall from the September CET to the November CET on record?
What's the chances of November ending up warmer than May? Needs to be 10.9 or more. That's never happened before as far as I know. That would give 2015 a notable statistic.
We came very, very close to that in 1994.
-
As a polar opposite to Thunderbolt my year from hell would be a very hot year with a very mild winter, hot spring, hot summer and hot autumn all included and would be made out of these months:-
January 1916 (7.5C)
February 1779 (7.9C) (They must have thought The Little Iceage had already ended! This also remains our longest unbroken heat record! I wonder how long that will last...)
March 1957 (9.2C)
April 2011 (11.8C)
May 1833 (15.1C)
June 1846 (18.2C)
July 2006 (19.7C)
August 1995 (19.2C)
September 2006 (16.8C)
October 2001 (13.3C)
November 1994 (10.1C)
December 1934/1974 (8.1C)
Year CET 13.08C!
-
For autumn but this also applies for the other seasons:-
I hate mild/warm and humid Atlantic weather types. I hate mild/hot and sunny weather types. I hate mild/hot and stormy/thundery weather types. I hate mild/hot and humid continental weather types. I hate mild/warm and cloudy and mild/warm and foggy weather types. I hate moderate and torrential intensity rain weather types regardless of temperature. I hate gale force and worse force winds without snow. I hate mild/warm and light rain/drizzle weather types. I hate Maritime Tropical and Continental Tropical airmasses.
I love cool/cold Atlantic weather types. I love "cool/cold sunshine and cool/cold gentle showers" weather types. I love cool/cold/frosty sunny weather types. I love snowy/sleety/blizzards weather types. I love cool/cold and stormy/thundery weather types. I love cool/cold and cloudy and cool/cold foggy weather types. I love cool/cold and light rain/drizzle weather types. I love Maritime Polar and Continental Polar and Arctic airmasses.
-
1
-
-
Rest in pieces 'autumn' 2015! My guess is 10.5C.
Last sub 3C November in 1915. Last sub 4C November in 1925. Last sub 5C November in 1993. Last sub 6C November in 2010.
-
So after a 5 month break the mild train is reloading.
-
2
-
-
Pretty sharp model change in relation to the prior 14C+ estimate. Perhaps the result of Hurricane J heading to the Atlantic.
Or even better, the cooling Atlantic!
-
Maybe he means
humidity = cloudy high ?
Even clean highs can be humid. Remember Julys 2006 and 2013 and Septembers 2006 and 2011 and 2014?
-
1
-
-
I'm very surprised to see 2011 in that list Roger. That was a very mild September.
So somewhere between 12.8 and 13.2C is likely before corrections, then 12.3 to 13.2C after corrections. 12.3C, if it happened, would be the coldest since 1986 and the joint 4th coldest in the last 50 years.If this comes off then September will beat May to be the coldest month of the year anomaly wise. If the last 4 months don't record a greater cold anomaly than September, then 2015 will have September as the coldest month of the year anomaly wise for the first time since 1994 and only for the second time since 1957.
-
1
-
-
Good to see a decent chance of a pretty cool September.
Let's not count our chickens just yet!
Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986. Last sub 2C February in 1991. Last sub 3C February in 2010. Last sub 3.5C February in 2013.
At least in all the years since I started posting CET predictions in May 2007 this is also the first time that everyone has predicted too low. The first and only other time I was too low was September 2010 when I predicted 13.4C. However unlike December 2015, September 2010 was only slightly above average at 13.8C. This is the first time I was too low with a record warm month. Oh well I knew it was bound to happen sooner than later. It can also be comfortably said that December has also finally left August as the only cooling month post 2010 which has been cooling slightly and erratically post 2004. CET Warming Stage 4 here we come.. 
What synoptics would we need for a blizzard like the one in America?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
For synoptics to give a blizzard effecting the whole country try these suspects:-
-
-
-