Lettucing Gutted
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Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
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Noticed the cold spell thread was going rather well when I got back this morning and I thought well it's ended. Yet people think it's cold. Got to admit myself I thought today was cold certainly compared to some days last Jan. Mainly the reason why I thought was cold was the strong breeze but I then realised I was being rather soft "nesh" as we would say round here. Got home and Max temp was 1C to 1.5C above what we normally get for Jasn and the evening temp going to likewise unless we lose the wind. I spent part of the walk looking for the first signs of spring and they were there. Tree buds well swollen up and green but further back than last year no doubt due to mid December.
Overall I think we've forgotten what cold is. Dec inversion was impressive but comp;aired to some DEcs in the past it was a heatwave.
One of the problems is that people have got used to having temps in the house between 70F and 80F when you used to be lucky to get much above 60. So when they step outside into a mild Jan morning at 7C they do a Carol Kirkwood and say it's freezing.
Talking the in the Pub news year day about 79 when we had the Windows frozen up outside and in and Snow Blowing through the secondary glazing. Every House had tons of Icicles hanging of them as did street lights drainpipes now you're lucky if you see one. Last time there was a good display probably was 87. Sadly it looks like we're all getting soft and doubt possibly keep getting softer until the fuel runs out.
Excellent post this is PIT. Sorry I am late replying.
I also find it worrying that people like Carol Kirkwood say temperatures of 7C in winter are freezing. If the warming trend continues people in Britain will be calling temperatures below 15C in winter cold and people in Britain will be calling temperatures below 30C in summer cold. People were calling August 2006's 16.1C C.E.T cold and yet compared to the cold augusts of the 1920s it was a heatwave. -
Can a westerly winter month turn in a below average figure? Some will laugh at the very suggestion, but I reckon the answer's 'yes' ...
It is possible for a westerly winter month turn in a below average figure however our chances are greatest if SSTS to our west fall considerably below average. :lol:
It's very possible that if the pattern persists we'll see some marked N-S variation.Yeah a kind of winter version of the cold north versus the warm south scenario.
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This January will be cold. 11C below average. Compared to the New Delhi like 2100-2130 January C.E.T of 19C that is...
So January 2008 C.E.T is 8C
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Has anyone noticed that after we have had a summer cold spell that we sometimes get a return to above average temperatures without the passage of a classical warm front cloud band and wind shift over Britain?
This scenario often happens when the Azores High Ridge moves into Western Britain from the west and displaces a summer Northerly cold spell from us.
As soon as the displaced Azores High Ridge moves over Britain we get a return to above average temperatures.
The link below leads to a diagram that shows the air mass changes that Britain experiences in a "Phantom Warm Front" summer warm up. In the image on page 1 Britain experiences a cool Northerly Maritime Polar flow. However in the image on page 2 the air flow has changed to a very warm Returning Maritime Tropical flow as the Azores High Ridge moves over Britain.
I call this warm up method a "Phantom Warm Front" since no classical warm front cloud band and wind shift crosses Britain during the warm up.
Below is a recent fax chart example of a "Phantom Warm Front":-
On the 21st August 2007 the daily mean in the C.E.T zone was a cool 14.8C courtesy of a Maritime Polar Northeasterly wind.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2007/...cka20070821.gif
On the 25th August 2007 the daily mean in the C.E.T zone had risen to a very warm 17.4C courtesy of a Returning Maritime Tropical West-Northwesterly wind brought by the Azores High ridging northeastwards into Western Britain.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2007/...cka20070825.gif
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat
You will notice that during the warm up between the 21st August 2007 and 25th August 2007 there was no warm front cloud band and wind shift crossing Britain.
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I have got a bad feeling that this Christmas will be a mild stinker and the weather will stay mild long into the New Year.
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Unfortunately I don't think Cool Zonality would even come off this time. There are still warm SST anomalies to our west. Any cool pool in the westerlies will be easily eroded over those above average SSTs.
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it would only take a few days of polar maritime air to dent the CET down to such levels.
The problem is the Maritime Polar air would modified by an extremely warmer than average North Atlantic Ocean like in January 1999.
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I am most likely been thick here but what do you/countryfile mean by "back door cold"?
Back door cold refers to a cold air mass that comes to the UK from the east. When there is a high to the east of the UK cold air can wrap around the UK and come up from a Southeasterly direction against the prevailing westerlies.
However Southeasterlies are only cold if there is a cold pool to the east of the UK for them to tap into.
In summer any cool pool that tries to develop to the east in an unseasonal cool snap is completely and utterly eroded by solar heating hence Southeasterlies always bring hot and humid weather to Britain in summer.
In fact the mild January 1996 was dominated by Southeasterlies that didn't originate from a cold pool.
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Countryfile have forcasted a "back door cold" scenario to develop by the end of this week after the initial Northerly and anticyclone arrival.
However I have got a bad feeling those dreaded warm Southwesterlies will win the battle instead. (They don't look to far away from the UK.)
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The above two posts contain some very brave predictions from Richard and Kevin.
However I think this is a very big ask of the synoptics I think. -
The warmest December on record 8.8C C.E.T
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I am all for stopping human caused climate change but this idea of bird flu killing off humans is very terrible.
What's the point in having good, safe weather when there are no humans around to enjoy it?
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Does anyone know a site were I can find a list of all of the Christmas Day daily temperatue means in the C.E.T zone since records began in 1659?
Thanks in advancve.
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Hi guys
Loving the site and forum!
Could somebody explain Zonality to me please? I read lots about it and people do not seem to like it in the winter. As a cold lover I guess I shouldn't either!
Thanks
The main problems with it is that the worst zonal warmth in all seasons comes from Maritime Tropical airmasses. This airmass is responsible for many "stuffy nights" throughout the year eventhough Continental Tropical is often just as bad.
However Zonality needn't be so bad for cold lovers.
Maritime Polar Zonality on the other hand often gives us cool weather in all seasons with very comfortable nighttime temperates. We can even get snow from Returning Maritime Polar air as shown by January 1984.
We have Maritime Polar air at the moment as well but there is a very big problem.
Warmer than average Sea surface Temperatures in the North Atlantic.
The problem with warmer than average SSTs is that a Maritime Polar airmass can bring 10+ maximum temperatures and frost free nights even in winter.
Just look at the chart below to see the modification of Returning Maritime Polar airmasses from warmer than average SSTs
The chart shows a Returning Maritime Polar airmasses over most of the UK on Christmas Eve 1997 which is upwind of the cold front situated over the south midlands.
http://www.ecn.ac.uk/Education/images/cold_front.gif
However those stupid warm SSTs in the North Atlantic warmed the Returning Maritime Polar airmass as the low pressure pushed it from the North Atlantic to the UK so that noon temperatures over most of the UK still reached 10-12C even upwind of the cold front.
The problem of Maritime Polar airmasses being modified by warmer than average SSTs also occured in other winter months such as January 1999.
It is seriously getting to the point that you need a very potent northerly just to get temperatures slightly below average.
Warm than average SSTs thanks to Global Warming isn't just making marginal cold setups into mild setups it is also turning strong Northwesterly winds into warm synoptics.
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The thick black line on the wetter 500hPa charts is a thickness line, but the boundary on this is also a useful guide. Go from that to the jet chart and you can see the position.
Thanks for the PFJ boundary on the 500 HPA charts WIB.
However which line represents the subtropical jet stream on the 500 HPA charts?
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It's ironic that the current change to mild weather has often being called a "breakdown" recently.
I always thought a breakdown meant a sudden change from very warm weather to very cool weather.
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Given the consistency of the patterns, its hard to see that there wont be an ice age in the future - however obviously not in our lifetime
If a no-ice age climate can exist on Venus than what's it can't exist on earth?
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14C C.E.T
The warmest October on record.
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In actual fact clear skies are not necessary for an inversion to develop. One of the most bizarre weather phenomena I've ever seen here in the East midlands was the inversion of early February 2006 under a cloudy high. The temperature began to fall late morning and just continued to fall for about 3 hours. By mid afternoon the temperature had fallen to -1 having been at +2 in late morning, and all under a cloud cover. What's more, the forecast temperatures bore no resemblance to what happened - I think 6 or 7 degrees was predicted, with 850's at close to 10 degrees making Cairngorm summit the warmest spot in the UK. Of course the event was discussed on this forum at the time but I never understood how it could have happened as it did.
Its possible that the cloud cover prevented the sun from heating the ground and overturning the cool 1000 HPA and "hot" 850 HPA layers thus allowing temperatures to keep on falling though the morning from an early morning maximum of 2C!
I call this cooling effect of cloud cover in an inversion high - a damage limitation high!
We have had these the last 2 Christmases as well.
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It's a possibility, though I'd have to say it's very very early in the year for a sustained inversion: that requires, quite apart from the right location, clear skies for a surface inversion to develop; with the sun still high enough in the sky it wouldn't persist all day. A clean HP might actually allow night time minima to drop away enough to bring the mean further down. I suspect though, across the weekend, too much upside will have been banked: it looks like 2-3 mild nights and warm days so that CET will, at the very least, hold its own into next week. I'd reckon it might actually be back up around 14.5 or 14.6 by then. Too high from that point, in that case, to get below long-term mean given the suggested synoptics, even if we accept the GFS surface projection, which I fancy is a tad too low.
The last month to have inversion cold outside of winter was May 1996.
A true cold high is very shallow and there is often a cold 500HPA trough above it and cold temperatures throughout the troposphere.
However an inversion cold high only has a shallow cool CP airmass at the surface below a deep warm core high.
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In fact the models continually illustrate a possible Bartlett appearing during the last week of September
Oh no! Not the dreaded Bartlett High and the GIN corridor storm track again!... B)
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I mentioned this a few weeks ago but did you know that during the Ordovician period there was an ice age whilst CO2 levels were 8 to 20 times higher than they are now!.
http://www.palaeos.com/Paleozoic/Ordovician/Ordovician.htm
Blimey I have found another Nostradamus on NW
.Could you please tell me will it be a white Xmas and what will Saturdays Lotto numbers be
There was probably a very strong break in the climate system that caused that Ice age - nothing to do with CO2. The break that stopped runaway global warming and caused that ice age doesn't exist anymore.
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I don't put too much trust in FI (Fantasy Island). Those models forcasted countless Northerlies during winter and spring 2006/2007 but a lot of them were "Phantom Northerlies".
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It does indeed look dry - even these phantom northerlies will have HP to our west meaning coastal showers and maybe the odd trough.
As for the CET, I was surprised to see a rise. I think we will end the month at least a degree south of where we are now however.
"Phantom Northerlies?"
Oh no another downgraded northerly. More boring mild weather.
I also find it worrying that people like Carol Kirkwood say temperatures of 7C in winter are freezing. If the warming trend continues people in Britain will be calling temperatures below 15C in winter cold and people in Britain will be calling temperatures below 30C in summer cold. People were calling August 2006's 16.1C C.E.T cold and yet compared to the cold augusts of the 1920s it was a heatwave.
However I think this is a very big ask of the synoptics I think.
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January C.E.T
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Craig Evans
Yep. Same old story again. It is the dreaded high minima's which are the star of the show again. They were the main reason for the warm anomalies of the first 6 months of 2007.