Lettucing Gutted
-
Posts
1,109 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
-
-
As I said before the truth is somewhere between. I still think most of the warming is natural with a little bit of man made help.
If the recent warming is natural e.g increased sunspots than the biggest increase in temperatures would be in the tropics rather than the poles on a global basis. On a seasonal basis temperatures would have risen faster in summer instead of winter. On a diurnal basis daytime would have warmed faster than nighttime. This is not the case...
-
Making assumptions that the earth will continue to warm up in the future due to GW is not only laughable but is also ignoring many factors of what makes our climate.
CO2 and other greenhouse gases are the strongest drivers of climate.
-
so that even if we stopped producing CO2 now, the climate would still warm for 10-20 years.
I fear that this maybe a very over optimistic scenario. Currently there are no signs of the world making dramatic CO2 cuts. If we don't cut back emissions within 8 years a rapid climate shift will make this planet 11C warmer by the year 2100 AD. The planet have an annual average temperature of 25C. And it will NEVER ever end until the earth's core explodes in 55 million years time...
-
Since I mentioned this, the GFS outlook has softened (as usual)
Another busted "cold" forcast from the GFS... Never trust the GFS...
-
This could get really interesting if the current model runs are right, by the 20th of May we could be looking at 8 or 9 C so it will take a massive warmup to get most of the field into the game.
There are even hints of wintry mixed precip at times in the time frame starting next Thursday.
Calrissian: hoping the GFS is doing its usual walkabout
That is only a degree or two warmer than January 2007's C.E.T!
-
Has the "forcasted" Northerlies for this May gone off the radar again?
-
It is getting to the point now where we should begin to think if the winters of 2000-01 and 2005-06 are the modern versions of 1995-96, 1985, 1986, 1987 and even possibly 1978-79.
Even worse the winter of 2006/2007 will be the new winter of 1962/1963. The summers of 2006, 2003, 1997, 1995, 1976, 1975 and 1947 will be the new summer of 1816.
Our seasonal baselines are marching and soaring relentlessly upwards... B)
-
So when i end my education im off to live in scotland or failing that Reykjavik!
I hate living in the hot humid south east
Joe
I will be joining you along with many other cold weather fans!
-
My bet would be that the spring record, like last autumn, will be cleared by a fair margin.
Thanks a lot polluting world. We have lost winter, autumn and spring!
-
Some bad news from http://news.aol.co.uk/china-to-emit-most-g...01?CLI=16009117 :-
"China 'to emit most greenhouse gas'
Last Updated: Wednesday, 25 April 2007, 11:48 GMT
- Search: China greenhouse gas
China set to produce world's largest amount of greenhouse gas China will overtake the United States as the world's biggest source of greenhouse gas this year, according to the International Energy Agency.
China had been forecast to surpass the US in 2010, but its sizzling economic growth has pushed the date forward, IEA chief economist Fatih Birol was quoted as saying in an interview in the Wall Street Journal newspaper.
"In the past couple of months, economic growth and related coal consumption has grown at such an unexpected rate," Mr Birol was quoted as saying. China's rising emissions will effectively cancel out other countries' attempts to reduce their own, he said.
Mr Birol's comments mark the direst prediction yet about China's contribution to global warming.
More News
Greens slam EU Strasbourg commute
'Earth-like' planet discovered
Shoppers snap up supermarket bags
Call for halt to roadside 'clutter'
Branson unveils green aircraft plan
They follow the release over the weekend of a Chinese government report detailing the costs of climate change, but asserting that the country should focus on development before cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
Higher-than-average temperatures mean spreading deserts, worsening droughts, shrinking glaciers and increased spread of diseases, said the report, compiled by more than a dozen government bodies. Wheat, rice and corn yields could fall by up to 37 per cent in the second half of the century, it said.
China is a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol on reducing greenhouse gasses, but it is exempt from its restrictions because it is a developing country."
Says it all doesn't it?
-
A European High this summer will be bad news for winter. Those things will be reluctant to shift in the Autumn.
-
Frighteningly incredible isn't it? Despite a rumored developing La Nina (ENSO Cool Phase) 2007 looks set to be hotter than 2006.
-
and the next ice age will promptly set in, complete with pristine atmospheric clarity.
I don't think earth will ever see an Ice Age for millions of years at least. The enhanced greenhouse effect combined with countless nasty little positive feedbacks will easily overrule the delicate Milankovich Orbital/Solar Cycles and will create the hottest and longest "Interglacial Period" since the dinosaur days if not worse still.
As James Lovelock would say "Humans have destroyed Gaia's Thermostat."
-
Will May 2007 be the warmest since May 1833? or the coldest since 1902?
I predict that this May will be the warmest on record 15.5C C.E.T (Global Warming in Britain now at stage 4...)
Make your punts for May 2007 here.
-
I wonder if we'll 'gain' a Summer month later in the year to make up for it...
:)P
I hope not. If we gain another summer month we will lose another winter month.
-
The last El Nino winter was 2003, before that 1997, so still a normal rate, the main thing is the lack of La Nina, we just seem to stay neutral.
The way the polar front/storm track shifts between La Nina and El Nino years is dramatic. In a El Nino the polar front soars north to the "GIN Corridor" with storms tracking North of Ireland and Scotland and South of Greenland and Norway. Also the cold air is sealed off in the Arctic during a El Nino leaving the UK stuck in boring, toasty Southerlies and Westerlies. In a La Nina the polar front and its storms can dive south to the Mediterranean bringing the cold Northwesterlies and Easterlies to the UK.
-
Again, there is certainly some truth in the warm September / mild winter correlation as well. Below are Septembers with CETs of 1*C or greater above average over recent decades and the winter that followed:
If another warm September and an El Nino show their ugly faces this year, I am writing off winter 2007/2008 in September.
-
Then comes May, what do you suspect might happen over May if HP influence just keeps pushing all else to our north?
Oh yeah. The Bartlett High. That doesn't bare thinking about. It will cause the Mother of All Warm Air Advection from the Equator all summer long - and well into Autumn - wrecking yet another winter and melting more Polar Ice leaving the World vulnerable for another El Nino and hot summer. Vicious circle.
-
Yes another well above average CET is likely for the month. How predictable this is all becoming...
Month after month of above average CET and well above at that is not
For me I am most frustrated at present, the fact that we are not even half way through the month and most of us are confident that a well above average CET is likely to be recorded, makes the guessing game of whether a near average average or below average month is likely a very dull one.
I thought if we were going to buck the trend of the last few months then this month was the month that was going to do it. I just did not expect this long sustained warm spell. The British climate continues to surprise me I am getting seriously worried about this warming trend of recent years the scale of it is getting out of hand..
I think we can wave goodbye by to Sub 10C highs in London till next November unfortunately... London is turning back into "Summer Heat Island" mode again with highs of 20C plus.
-
I think April is looking like a month that is warming erratically, rather than undergoing a marked step-change. This is also suggested by the snow amounts, which have been declining erratically rather than showing a step-change (such as in May, when there were fairly widespread snow events in 1993, 1995, 1996 and 1997, but nothing of note since). The trend is certainly upward although the height of the 1940s is yet to be reached.
I think April joined the "bandwagon" again in 2002. At 9.3C April 2002 was a degree above the 1960-1990 average of 8.0C and the 1971-2000 average of 8.1C. April 2002 was also nearly 2 degrees above its predecessor - April 2001 which had a C.E.T of 7.7C.
Also with the coming Southeasterly heatwave April 2007 could secure April's "seat on the bandwagon" especially if April 2007 returns a C.E.T of 10.C or more.
-
by then the scientists will have a magical solution, so everyone is happy, bring on the mild yadda yadda yadda.
Alas I don't think science will save us... I have got a bad feeling about the future. The Methane hydrates will escape into the atmosphere, the world will fly planes like crazy, China and India will start belching greenhouse out of their coal power stations like there's no tomorrow...
-
Examples of surprise May Northerly outbreaks in Britain include the following:-
1. May 1935. In an already cold May with a C.E.T of 9.9C things turned much colder on the 16th with a cold front followed by Northerlies. these produced ground frosts and snow showers on the day oft he Silver Jubilee of King George CV (17th May 1935).
Very warm Southeasterly breeze on 4th of May 1935. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1...slp19350504.gif
Very mild UK Bartlett High on the 8th.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1...slp19350508.gif
However very cold North-Northwesterlies on the 16th
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1...slp19350516.gif
Cool East-Northeasterly winds from the 20th.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1...slp19350520.gif
2. May 1902. According to http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley...ther_in_may.h... "The coldest May this century (8.9C), with wintry showers and frosts. It got slightly warmer at the end of the month, with 24C recorded in Aberdeen on the 23rd."
From the start May 1902 was cold with cold Northwesterlies starting on the 1st.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1...slp19020501.gif
Warmer Southwesterlies returned on the 22nd with 24C in Aberdeen on the 23rd.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1...slp19020522.gif
3. May 1996 was also a cold May overall in fact the second coldest of the 20th Century at 9.1C C.E.T.
May 1996 began already cool on the 1st with cool Northeasterlies.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119960501.gif
Things turned even colder on the 18th when Bournemouth only reached a high of 7C due to a Siberian "Beasterly" Easterly.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119960518.gif
However a warm front moved in from the west on the 28th which would start up the phenomenal heatwave of early June 1996.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119960528.gif
4. May 1995 was slightly milder than average at 11.6C C.E.T however there was some very warm and very cold spells.
May 1995 began very warm on the 1st with equally very warm Southwesterlies giving temperatures as high as 28C in St Helier (Channel Islands).
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119950501.gif
However things turned cold on the 8th when warm southerlies were replaced by cold Northwesterlies.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119950508.gif
On the 17th parts of the Northeast of Britain only reached 5C with even snow in a very cold East-Northeasterly.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119950517.gif
5. May 1997 at 11.5C C.E.T was also slightly milder than average. However was also some very warm and very cold spells in this month.
Starting on the 1st a UK Bartlett High and a Southwesterly breeze brought some very warm weather to Britain with 27C in London on the 2nd.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119970501.gif
On the 5th temperatures fell from 27C in a Returning Maritime Arctic airmass. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119970505.gif
On the 6th temperatures got no higher than 10C in London as a very cold Northerly brought snow to North Wales and Derbyshire with a Morning low of -4.1C at Benson (Oxon).
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119970506.gif
However on the 16th a warm front brought warm, humid and thundery Southeasterlies up from France with highs of 27C once again in London.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119970516.gif
-
Someone on this site said that the surprise Northerly outbreaks in May in Western Europe are caused by low pressure systems invading the North Pole. On the low's western side a Northerly wind can inject the displaced cold air from Greenland into the circulation of the westerlies which then invades Western Europe.
-
The Arctic has totally copped out now. Even the average April is a goner now. The Countryfile forcast shows a self-sustaining high pressure to the south of Britain and an attendant southeasterly CT flow giving 23C and climbing in London. Yuk.
The Ongoing Warmth in the UK
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I few computers from the climatepredication.net forcasted a 11C temperature rise outlier.