Lettucing Gutted
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Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
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The current weather and that forecasted well into next week are what I would be hoping for in May my favourite month. I am just slightly concerned that it is all too early and that realistically we can't expect these sorts of conditions to persist into May.. would others agree or i am just worrying too much.
Everything this year feels as if it is a month ahead, so in this sense i shouldn't perhaps worry as May should reflect June temps etc.
It seems as if we are in a spell where depending on the time of year we are in weather terms one month ahead from February-June, July and August static and from September-January the reverse happens i.e. one month behind and therefore effectively we have lost 2 months i.e. January and February.
It is all a worrying trend and the concept of 4 distinct seasons is being seriously tested.
I am worried as well Damian. I also feel that in the future the four season pattern as we once knew it will be seen at best as "relative" or worse nonexistent. I also feel that spring progresses too fast these days and autumn progresses too slow.
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I an dreading another long string of plus 10C "subtropical" nights this summer.
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If we at least expect December 2007 to be cold we could do with this April to be below 8.0c since 2001's cold 3.6 December followed a cold 7.7C April 2001.
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True, it is esentially like comparing February 2006 against the 1700-1730 average.
The reason I compared August 2006 against the 1960-1990 average was because I wanted to show that we don't get 'cold' months like we did yesteryear.
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It could be 13 months above average now. I watched the Countryfile forcast and that useless-for-cold transitory Northeasterly isn't going to link up to the North Pole or Yakutsk, Siberia this April. Also the attending UK/Scandi Bartlett High just keeps swirling around the East Coast of Britain and will only let in the useless non-cold Atlantic westerlies again later this week so once yet again April 2007 will join the building list of warm Aprils and other warm months.
No Aug 2006 was slightly below the long-term mean.At 16.1C August 2006 was below the 1970-2000 C.E.T August average of 16.2C however it was above the 1960-1990 C.E.T of 15.8C.
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Nice chart. Yin and Yang perfectly illustrated as the Eastern US is also receiving a cold plunge from the same system which is driving the warm southerlies up the West coast of Greenland.
You also know that a bit further West a high pressure is drawing warmer air up the Western side and so repeat until you come the whole way round....
I suppose that in times of the rare Cold Surges (Northwesterlies) that sometimes affect Northern India in the winter the extremely long Northerlies transporting cold air from Russia to Northern India would be matched by extremely long Southerlies transporting warm air as far north as the Bering Sea (to the east of the long Northerly) and Scandinavia (to the west of the long Northerly).
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this month is a good example, an outurn barely 1C above average yet high maxima.
July 1996, August 1996, July 1997, October 1999, December 1999, July 2005, August 2005 February 2003 September 2003, December 2003, December 2005 are other examples of months that have high maxima being countered by low minima thus resulting in 'mild' rather than 'very warm' overall C.E.Ts. A lot of the Mays since 1992 have had mild overall C.E.Ts instead of exceptionally warm C.E.Ts with the exception of Mays 1998 and 1999.
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The warmest British April since records began... 12.5C.
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If it continues in the same vein of continuous low pressure after low pressure and summer is a washout then perhaps we are with a chance of a below average month.
Depressions simply passing over us from west to east don't necessarily gibe us months below the 30 year rolling C.E.T because the cloud cover will keep high nighttime temperatures high for example August 2006. For a truly cold month we need proper Northwesterlies ridging all the down from Greenland or some Northerlies and Northeasterlies from the North Pole.
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The original spring forcast called for a Cool April 2007 however it looks like it could be a 'busted' forcast because http://www.lse.co.uk/ShowStory.asp?story=Y...nue_into_spring claims that the all of spring 2007 will be warm than average. Again more warm months...
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Is it possible to get Northerly (Southerly) cold surges across the whole Northern (Southern) Hemisphere without any compensating Warm Air Advection elsewhere? If so has there been any examples of this?
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Being in Kirkham, Preston the last time I saw lying snow in November was on 28th November 1996.
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Below is a list of Januaries that are above the 1960-1991 C.E.T of 3.2C after 1899. There is an awful lot of mild Januaries in this list and there is also a wide range of mild C.E.Ts ranging from as 'low' as 3.3C to as high as 7.5C.
NOTE: Some Januaries will share the same ranking number as they the same overall C.E.T.
- Ranking Year C.E.T Description
1 1916 7.5 Very warm
2 1921 7.3 Very warm
3 2007 7.1 Very warm
4 1975 6.8 Warm
5 1983 6.7 Warm
6 1990 6.5 Warm
7 1932 6.3 Warm
8 1989 6.1 Warm
9 2005 6.0 Warm
10 1974 5.9 Very mild
10 1976 5.9 Very mild
10 1993 5.9 Very mild
11 1944 5.8 Very mild
12 1938 5.7 Very mild
13 1923 5.6 Very mild
13 1930 5.6 Very mild
14 1949 5.5 Very mild
14 1957 5.5 Very mild
14 1969 5.5 Very mild
14 1999 5.5 Very mild
14 2002 5.5 Very mild
15 1948 5.4 Very mild
16 1906 5.3 Very mild
16 1925 5.3 Very mild
16 1988 5.3 Very mild
16 1994 5.3 Very mild
17 1920 5.2 Very mild
17 1928 5.2 Very mild
17 1937 5.2 Very mild
17 1998 5.2 Very mild
17 2004 5.2 Very mild
18 1943 4.9 Mild
18 1981 4.9 Mild
18 2000 4.9 Mild
19 1995 4.8 Mild
20 1902 4.7 Mild
20 1924 4.7 Mild
21 1926 4.6 Mild
21 1927 4.6 Mild
22 1913 4.5 Mild
22 1935 4.5 Mild
22 1967 4.5 Mild
22 1971 4.5 Mild
22 1973 4.5 Mild
22 2003 4.5 Mild
23 1900 4.4 Mild
23 1968 4.4 Mild
24 1962 4.3 Mild
24 1996 4.3 Mild
24 2006 4.3 Mild
25 1903 4.2 Mild
25 1939 4.2 Mild
25 1950 4.2 Mild
26 1904 4.1 Mild
26 1915 4.1 Mild
26 1934 4.1 Mild
27 1951 3.9 Slightly mild
27 1961 3.9 Slightly mild
27 1972 3.9 Slightly mild
28 1911 3.8 Slightly mild
28 1918 3.8 Slightly mild
28 1960 3.8 Slightly mild
28 1984 3.8 Slightly mild
29 1914 3.7 Slightly mild
29 1922 3.7 Slightly mild
29 1936 3.7 Slightly mild
29 1970 3.7 Slightly mild
29 1992 3.7 Slightly mild
30 1905 3.6 Slightly mild
30 1907 3.6 Slightly mild
30 1912 3.6 Slightly mild
30 1956 3.6 Slightly mild
31 1901 3.5 Slightly mild
31 1909 3.5 Slightly mild
31 1910 3.5 Slightly mild
31 1986 3.5 Slightly mild
32 1958 3.4 Slightly mild
32 1964 3.4 Slightly mild
32 1978 3.4 Slightly mild
33 1953 3.3 Slightly mild
33 1965 3.3 Slightly mild
33 1991 3.3 Slightly mild
34 1931 3.2 Average
34 2001 3.2 Average
- Ranking Year C.E.T Description
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Below is a list of Januaries that have had a C.E.T below the 1960-1991 C.E.T of 3.2 after 1899.
NOTE: Some Januaries will share the same ranking number because they also share the same overall C.E.T.
Ranking Year C.E.T Description
1 1963 -2.1 Very cold
2 1940 -1.4 Very cold
3 1979 -0.4 Very cold
4 1945 0.4 Cold
5 1941 0.5 Cold
6 1985 0.8 Cold
6 1987 0.8 Cold
7 1942 0.9 Cold
8 1929 1.3 Very cool
9 1917 1.6 Very cool
9 1959 1.6 Very cool
10 1933 2.2 Very cool
10 1947 2.2 Very cool
11 1980 2.3 Very cool
12 1908 2.5 Cool
12 1997 2.5 Cool
13 1955 2.6 Cool
13 1982 2.6 Cool
14 1946 2.7 Cool
14 1952 2.7 Cool
15 1977 2.8 Cool
16 1919 2.9 Cool
16 1954 2.9 Cool
16 1966 2.9 Cool
17 1931 3.2 Average
17 2001 3.2 Average
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The article is referring to minima. The 4th of July 1965 had maxima into the low teens across the south.
Thankyou Mr_Data.
PSShouldn't that be early autumnal rather than late autumnal type?
Yeah. Sorry about that. I wrongly assumed that when Trevor's webpage mentioned "Close to freezing" I thought he meant the daytime high which I then assumed would be something like the old 1960-1991 average high in November (9C).
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Thankyou Summer Blizzard.
Sorry heat lovers but I would like to see that cold, dry bright weather myself in future Julys. It is ashame I was wasn't born before 1986 otherwise I would experienced some of the coldest weather of the 20th Century.
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According to http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/1965_weather.htm Northerly winds brought Bright, Cold and Dry weather to Britain in the first week of July 1965. It then says that temperatures were CLOSE TO FREEZING in the the Midlands on the 4th July.
Unfortunately it doesn't specify exactly how cold the 4th July 1965 was.
Does anyone know how cold the 4th July 1965 really was in the Midlands?
I would like to know both the Max and Min temperatures for that day if possible. Thanks in advance.
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For a bit of balance, January 2006 saw well below average temps across large parts of Russia, Asia and Eastern/Central Europe:
I bet the overall mean temperatures even in those places were still above the 1960-1991 overall winter mean temperatures. Certainly the hot summer of 2006 would have offset those anomalies.
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The warm September theory is true that it is rarely followed by a cold winter, whereas again that theory does not always work the other way round, as the cool Septembers of 1974 and 1994 were still followed by mild winters. Sometimes theories work one way but not always the other.
The slightly cool September of 1919 was also followed by a mild 1919/1920 winter. The cool September of 1952 and 2001 were followed by mixed winters (Cool Decembers but slightly mild Januaries and Februaries).
p.s I certenly don't think it will snow at all this rubbish spring.
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After a pathetic excuse for a cool August, disappointing autumn and winter I going to presume the worst and give March 2007 a C.E.T of 10C - The HOTTEST March on record. I have completely given up on hoping for cold weather.
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Since every winter and autumn month since February 1997 has been a disappointment to me this was a hard choice so here a few mini winter highlights in this disappointing new millennium British climate from top to bottom:-
1. December 2001. At 3.6C C.E.T slightly below average and the coolest since 1996 and the last December to be below the 1960-1991 C.E.T of 4.3C.
2. January 2001. At 3.2C C.E.T average temperatures and the 'coolest' since 1997 and the last January to not exceed the 1960-1991 C.E.T of 3.2C.
3. Post Boxing Day snowfall in December 2000. This was the first and only time this millennium that there has been more than 1 day of lying snow in Kirkham, Preston.
4. 28th January 2004. Eventhough Kirkham, Preston missed the thundersnow event we still managed our one and only wintry cold wave that January which was a 'bonus' to me in that mild muck month.
5. Christmas Day 2004. The first white Christmas Day in Kirkham since Christmas Day 1995. This exceptionally short 36 hour Northwesterly toppler event just about saved December 2004 from being utter rubbish...
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Further to this, following a late cold blast in 1962, Santon Downham in Norfolk recorded -5.6 on both the 1st and 3rd June under HP with inversion.
Bring back the cool 1960s please! I hate this new eternal summer climate that Britain now has!
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Is it possible to get nighttime summer frosts without a Northerly?
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Talking of mild spells in February. I had a bad dream the other night. I dreamed that when the recent cold spell ended - a record max of 20.5C/69F was forcasted for Southampton on the 9th of February!
German Late Spring Weather Singularities
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Craig Evans
There once a topic about this but the original thread disappeared.
Below is a list of weather singularities that can effect Germany, Belgium and even France and Great Britain in the late spring:-
Ice Saints - Occurs between 12-14 May
Sheep Cold - Occurs between 4-18 June
Below is information on the singularities quoted from:-http://german.about.com/library/definition...ef05_0707.htm:-
"die Schafskälte a brief cold spell in early to mid-June or other summer months ("sheep's cold snap" - see note below)
Schafskälte bringt 20 Zentimeter Neuschnee in den Alpen. (Schlagzeile)
"Sheep's cold snap" leaves 20 cm of new snow in the Alps. (headline)
Gerade erst haben wir die Rekord-Eisheiligen hinter uns gelassen, da läßt bereits wieder eine Super-Schafskälte Europa bibbern. (Die Welt, 9. Juni 2005)
Barely do we have the record cold "ice saints" behind us, and already a super "sheep's cold snap" has Europe shivering once again. (Die Welt, 9 June 2005)
Note: A Schafskälte or Schafkälte is a statistically frequent European weather phenomenon. A true "sheep's cold spell" can result in a temperature drop of 5 to 10 degrees Celsius (9-18 Fahrenheit degrees) during the period between June 4 to June 18 (most often around June 11). The name comes from the risk to freshly shorn sheep from the unusually cold weather. It usually results from cool and damp northwesterly winds.
Related:
die drei Eisheiligen (Eisheilige) a period of cold weather in the spring (the three saints' days from 12-14 May), after which frost is supposed to be rare; lit. "the (three) ice saints"
der Altweibersommer ("old wives summer") period of nice weather towards the end of September (similar to "Indian summer" in the U.S.)
der Martinssommer period of nice weather in November"