Lettucing Gutted
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How long will global temps continue to rise?
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Here are some February party poopers:-
Example 1
February 1997 which ruined what had been a decent winterI know. February 1997 was a right disappointment for me in winter 1996/1997:-
November 1996 = 5.9c C.E.T
December 1996 = 2.9c C.E.T
January 1997 = 2.5c C.E.T
February 1997 = 6.7c C.E.T ahhh!
The above is a recent example of a February ruining a good winter. There are 2 more examples of this happening in the last 30 years (before I was born):-
Example 2
February 1982 ruined the winter of 1981/1982:-
December 1981 = 0.3c C.E.T
January 1982 = 2.6c C.E.T
February 1982 = 4.8c C.E.T Oh dear...
Example 3
February 1977 ruined the winter of 1976/1977
December 1976 = 2.0c C.E.T
January 1977 = 2.8c C.E.T
February 1977 = 5.2c C.E.T Oh no...
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February 1997 which ruined what had been a decent winter
I know. February 1997 was a right dissapointment for me in winter 1996/1997.
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Winter 2006/2007
I agree with that also. Our weather is turning rubbish.
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My worst experience was the whole of the year 2006. 2006 promised to be a cold, dry and bright year in March BUT it turned into yet another hot, hazy and humid year with the worst ever heatwave in July and September to boot. September was warmer than both June and August 2006.
C.E.Ts from hot to mild months from that rubbish hot 2006 (10.82c C.E.T).
EDIT: Delete my previous post. All of the figures got jumbled together. To see a neat list of C.E.Ts visit the attachment below:-
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If the dying cold snap was going to last into the first half of February followed by trademark early spring weather in the 2nd half - I would have given a 4c C.E.T for February 2007.
However January 2007 is now mild again and assuming this continues well into February I would have to punt at a 7.5c C.E.T for February 2007.
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But don't you find that the 'bare bones' can be misleading in themselves if you don't know how the 'average' was arrived at? 0.6c doesn't sound alarming at all but 4-5c at the poles (the area that could spell global trouble if ice sheet ablation increases) and a smaller than average increase at the equator paints a different picture. If we are always fully aware that the average increase represents major heating at the poles and minor heating as we move towards the equator then we can properly interpret the figures more meaningfully.
The poles warm faster than the equator because heatwaves transfer and relieve the equator of up to 6c of excess heat. The polar latitudes get the excess heat distributed to them. If it was not for heatwaves the equator would warm up faster than the poles.
The equator has warmed up more slower because they are relieved of heat which is distributed to polar latitudes.
The tropics have also warmed less the poles because they get cool dry monsoon winds from the poles in winter and cool moist winds from the winter hemisphere in the summer season.
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Welcome to ten millenniums without a winter. From Ice age to fire age.
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I was going on the bus to Blackpool that morning of the 28th for shopping in the post Christmas sales. The bus got stuck in snow for ten minutes on the A585 in Kirkham!
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After the excellent cool, sunny and snowy March 2006 last year I was hoping that the rest of 2006 would continue the "cooling" trend. But it didn't.
Starting with April and continuing now instead we got another year to add to the relentless "more than ten warmest years in a row record"... Instead of a sub 9.4C C.E.T year we had the warmest year on record.
Even the "Northwesterly" August 2006 was still "slightly warmer" than average since the Northwesterlies were simply coming off a warm SST anomaly North Atlantic with NO link to Greenland.
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I am upset. On Sunday Countryfile got my hopes up. They said it was going to get COLDER this weekend but OH NO ITV said last night its going to get WARMER this weekend.
AAAAAAAAH! What went wrong!?
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It has made little or no difference: I already believed in AGW. I am worried. Very worried about the future...
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Wouldn't wet ground 'save up' high temp over a mild winter and give us a head start next year - oops I mean this year! (?)
I'm wondering if the surface moisture wouldn't dissapear quite readily, as it seems to in my (clayish) garden - or does the deeper moisture continue wicking to the surface? Depends on soil type maybe??
Mind you, were not exactly getting more exposed soil surfaces as time goes on.
Edit; oh, we probably are...
That is true because water or wet ground is a very good heat store. It has a greater capacity for storing or saving heat than dry ground has. As well as saving up heat from a mild winter ready for a hot summer, wet ground can also save heat from a hot summer thus making a mild winter more likely to follow than a cold one.
North Magnetic Pole (which changes position year to year as opposed to the "true" North Pole): Roger's theory of medium to long range forecasting seems to involve a consideration of the effects of gravity and electro-magnetic forces.Regards
ACB
Thankyou acbrixton
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Yep, and reading on the January cet thread, I think it was Steve P said that if Jan returned a cet of 10c, then it would equal the 61-90 cet average for October.
If January 2007 gets any warmer and doesn't get cold - it could be the first January ever to achieve Steve P's 10c C.E.T for January. As for the lack of cold weather January 2007 is almost as much of a stinker as February 1997 was.
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Sorry for asking but what is NMP short for?
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I think we should do away with winter and spring all together and just have 2 seasons, Summer and Autumn
Summer runs from March through to October
Autumn runs from November through to February.
In my honest opinion that makes sense because Global Warming is:-
1. Reducing the temperature contrast from November to February in addition to making winter shorter and milder.
2. Increasing the temperature contrast from March to October in addition to making summer longer and hotter. :lol:
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With the British climate as it is John March falls somewhere in between both seasons, as you will know from long experience it is possible to get days of 21c and just as easy to get an ice day . Bearing that in mind I prefer to call it both a late winter month and an early spring month ( hows that for fence sitting).
That is a great seasonal description for March.
I think that is a pretty correct assessment so far - seems that way to me as well - I am just dreading having another hot summer - I mean it is great when you are off at home, but travelling to work on the trains, etc - total nightmare!!! They should make air conditioned suits! (or underwear!) Sorry - a bit off topic, but yes it does seem quite unseasonal at the mo.I am dreading another hot summer as well.
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Since every year from 2002 onward has been getting evermore warmer due to Anthrogenic Greenhouse Warming, together with the El Nino 2006-2007 and increased solar activity - I have decided to give a possible Annual C.E.T of 11.8c for 2007.
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Because of Global Warming meaning longer summers and shorter winters in Britain as well as shorter transition seasons - In my opinion the seasons should be like this now:-
Spring
February, March
Summer
April, May, June, July, August, September, October
Autumn
November, December
Winter
January
The trouble with that Andy, is that the last third of March would then be a spring month.Another words, March would be be both a winter and a spring month
Before Global Warming took over March was a transitional winter/spring month in my opinion. There was an old saying connected to March's cold first half and March's warm second half. "In like a lion. Out like a lamb".
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Strange. 1916 was an overall slightly cool year with a C.E.T of 9.18c but with a very warm January. That January was almost as warm as the 1960-1991 Aprils which had a C.E.T of 8.0c. :o
Also despite all of our recent record hot years... we in Britain haven't had a January that was overall warmer than January 1916!
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Christmas Day has brought average temperatures to Lancashire today. Not great...
but not bad either P.s Merry Christmas everyone!
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there is another range of hills between the southern Uplands and Perth, the Ochils. I don't think the terrain is right for the Fohn effect to occur on Perth from a south westerly. Maybe a straight westerly tho.
Thankyou Hiya.
A Great point about the Ochils as well. I think that over the years straight westerly winds crossing the Ochils and other Scottish mountains have been responsible for some of Scotland's most supernatural warmth (particularly in Eastern Scotland) in mild winters and warm summers. -
Sorry correction. I gave the wrong mountain range. It was the Southern Uplands in Scotland that the South-Southwesterlies would have descended to undergo the Fohn Effect to bring Perth's 29c on 21/7/66.
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The effect of the highest temperature of the day (29c) being in Perth instead of in Southeastern Britain was to effectively reverse the usual south to north decline in temperatures in Britain!
It is amazing that a reversal of the usual south to north temperature decline in Britain can occur in summer as well as winter!
but not bad either 
How long will global temps continue to rise?
in Space, Science & nature
Posted · Edited by Craig Evans
Here are your poll options:-
1. 50 years
2. 100 years
3. 200 years
4. 500 years
5. 1000 years
6. 2000 years
7. 5000 years
8. 10,000 years
9. 15,000 years
10. 20,000 years
11. At least 1 million years
12. More than 1 million years
EDIT: I am sorry I did a duplicate of this topic. I had a problem trying to set up this poll.