Lettucing Gutted
-
Posts
1,109 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
-
-
London, Cambridge, Holbeach and Coningsby all recorded temperatures around 30 °C on 5th.
Are those 30s confirmed and official?
-
Probably looking at the eventual CET being between 15-16.5C.
If that comes off then 2007 could be the warmest year on record at least in the C.E.T zone. A very dangerous possibility that the warmest year on record could be broken again within just the space of a year after the previous one...
-
I can see no connection meteorological between a mild September and a mild winter. 1985/6 is a good example of how the connection doesn't work. 01st October 1985 was virtually 30C, only to find Feb 1986 recording a staggering -1.1C for the month: since 1947 only one other month has ever been colder. Not even the winter of 1978/9 produced a month as cold as Feb 1986. And I remember it vividly, just as I remember (quite honestly) sunbathing on 02nd October 1985 in London.
At the moment I'm confident that any recent trend of warm Septembers and mild winters is nothing more than a quirk that has no scientific basis. 1985/6 very much suggests that to be the case.
Last night was milder than expected owing to cloud cover.
The problem with that West is Best is that Britain wasn't experiencing year round warming as frequent as now before 1988. We have re-based dramatically and frighteningly upwards since 1988 due to year round warming and we could yet again re-base even further above 1996/1997.
-
Summing it all up, in all the decades of the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, the chances of getting a cool summer was far greater than getting a cold winter
Ironically the decadal average C.E.T for June was slightly warmer in the 1960s than both the 1970s, 1980s and even the 1990s.
1960s 14.6C
1970s 14.1C
1980s 14.1C
1990s 14.2C
The mildness and dryness (decadal 1960s June sunshine 204 hours) of the 1960s Junes skewed my mum and dad's childhood memories into thinking that the 1960s summers were "warm".
My parents and even my brother are Anthropogenic Climate Change skeptics except me.
-
Yes, Kevin I know about your point, especially as January 1981 was one of the most northerly Januarys on record but it still ended up above average at 4.9; but when you look at that month's charts properly you see that the northerlies often came from round the northern flank of a displaced Azores High (which is still a fairly mild source in the winter) and rarely from within the Arctic Circle. So, most of January 1981 synoptics were certainly not cold.
Very good point about January 1981 there Beasterly Blast.
In fact some of August 2007's Northerlies especially over the last week were Returning Maritime Tropical air from the Mid-Atlantic High/displaced Azores High.
August 1940 also had a C.E.T of 15.6C which is close to 15.8C (1960-1991 average) despite the Northerlies in that month. However most of those were Returning Maritime Tropical air as well.
Because of the Returning Maritime Tropical air as well as Global Warming competing with the Maritime Polar Northerly outbreaks, August 2007 has a C.E.T of 15.6C which is close to the 1961-1990 average. There was even a short warm spell around about the 5th of August 2007 were even 30C was breached down south which brought the CET to 16.7C at one point.
-
Just wondering. Is there a chance that Hadley or Manley could come in above 15.8C for the August 2007 C.E.T?
-
we could see a big increase in sun blocking particles in the atmosphere and regardless of atmospheric CO2 content, if enough activity is present, we could quite quickly start to see a volcanic winter phase entered, which might in turn trigger a longer term ice age.
B)
The problem is that if the negative forcing from the volcanic eruption (bright sulphuric acid aerosols, dust, ash etc) is too small then we would be lucky for global warming to slow down slightly, let alone cause a long term cooling.
-
so if there's any fall today it might be just a nudge downwards. Looks good for 15.6C to me, with 15.5C still not out of the question.
It will need a very good nudge downwards to reach/fall to 15.5C. That looks unlikely in Returning Maritime Tropical air.
-
How cool does this autumn and December have to be to keep the 2006 warmest annual C.E.T record intact?
It will be frightening if the annual C.E.T record falls every year.
-
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif
Doesn't look much like a Northerly over Britain now. Not only downgraded but gone.
-
Just seen your autumn forcast Snowman. October and November look mild and stormy. Doesn't bode well for a better, colder winter this year.
-
Read this the other day:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2007/aug/07/disasters
which proposes that volcanicity increases with changes in weighting from ice and water on the earth's crust.
To summarise, as ice caps melt the crust under the ice moves and volcanicity increases. This could act as a natural feedback to the GW outlook by reducing global temperatures through increased stratospheric light dispersion due to volcanic particles.
Thought that this was an interesting angle on GW and the earth's inter-relationship with its ecosystems.
Alternately the volcanoes could put more CO2 in the atmosphere thus accelerating Global Warming as a positive feedback.
-
However, I think people are really under-estimating temps with this set up - maxima particularly. Last night was also very warm, but it's those minima which will be key. It's 16.0C now and I can't see too much downwards from here really - perhaps a notch. Edit - having just looked at the overnight runs it seems to me that the high is a little further west again with us back into slightly more of a nor'westerly flow. If this is the case then we may well see some low overnight minima - dependent on cloud cover.
I have a feeling that 16C could be the lowest the C.E.T will be. As well as higher than prediction maximum temperatures I also have a feeling that nighttime temperatures will be in the the teens thus securing us yet another August above the 1960-1990 average.
-
This scenario would be very different to many a recent year, but as you say would be very dry. Somehow I don't think this will prevail throughout, I would expect at least a short spell of autumnal gales at some point, but I like the idea of any high retrogressing over the country during the November ensuring cold and frosty conditions....
I don't trust highs that move over the UK to bring cold weather. Quite often these days the high topples to the southeast to become a Bartlett High or moves back southwest to the Azores, bringing mild and humid weather. Only very rarely these days do highs move northeast to Scandinavia or retrogress northwest to Greenland to bring cold weather.
Last autumn/winter (2006/2007) was a good example of this problem. The first few days of November 2006 and the week before Christmas 2006 featured a shallow cool spell under a UK Blocking High. However the period in between Bonfire Night and 15th December 2006 featured constant Warm Zonality Westerly winds. The period between Boxing Day 2006 and 19th January 2007 was also dominated by Warm Zonality Westerly winds.
-
An autumn like 1986 would be nice cold and dry with lots of ground/air frosts down to -5c and 42 days without rain I wish.
:lol: With a seasonal C.E.T of 10C Autumn 1986 wasn't exceptionally cool in the C.E.T zone since it was only 0.2C below the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for Autumn of 10.2C.
September 1986 had all of the credit for the slightly cool Autumn outcome. At 11.3 it was 2.3C below the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for September of 13.6C.
However October 1986 was quite mild. At 11C it was 0.4C above the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for October of 10.6C.
November 1986 was also very mild. At 7.8C it was 1.3C above the 1960-1990 average C.E.T for November of 6.5C.
October and November 1986 stopped Autumn 1986 from being exceptionally cool.
-
Actually thinking about it, I think it will do well to exceed 16 this month, 15.8 or 15.9 for me
To be honest even if it averaged 12 overnight and 24 today it would be less than a 0.1 rise and there should be no rises after today for a few days, probably until the end of the month.
I was hoping we would see another sub 1960-1991 month as well but I have a feeling 15.8C looks a bit low. The nighttime temperatures seem to be climbing again. Unfortunately for cold lovers I foresee the recent pattern of "Indian Summers" continuing.
-
Lol, don't bank on it. Expect 3 months of Bartletts now.
I hope we get a bitter winter too.
If the current high topples southeast to France then that long period of Bartlet Highs could be starting very soon.
-
This September will make last year's September look freezing. September 2007 17C.
-
Which is almost exactly where it was this time last year!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060820.gif
Ironically I don't like the sound of that because after that chart last August toppled we had the most subtropical September you could imagine.
-
If this August comes in above 15.8C in the C.E.T zone then Augusts 1998, 1999, 2005, 2006 will be regarded as the new "cold" Augusts of the global warming era. We just don't seem to be able to achieve a C.E.T below 16C anymore in August.
-
The modern UK climate will really be showing its ugly face if we do not get a below average August or at the very least a close to average month.
Very good point there. It seems that climate change has at least irreparably changed the August C.E.T. The last time August C.E.T was below the 1960-1990 average was 1993.
-
It may help Craig but you could have the coldest Autumn ever but if you get a winter dominated by a Bartlett high those cooler SSt's are not going to make a slight bit of difference!
Yeah the Bartlet high is another ting we need to watch out for. It was almost always present last year between last September and March 2007 give or take a few days.
Do the current British SSTs, MEI index, AO, Stratosphere temperatures, QBO, NAO and PDO etc still favour a sub 15.8C August or "normal service resumed" hot and humid?
-
as far as I'm concerned anything which might help a real autumn to materialise would be a boon. It's my favourite season, and the one that has most vanished in recent years.
Yeah. That's a very key point WIB High. A real autumn would really assist in the developing weather patterns for a cold winter in Britain. Since on average the Northern Hemisphere's Oceans reach their highest temperatures of the year in September the rest of Autumn is the season when the SSTs begin to cool very slowly so the lower the SSTs are this September the better the chances they will be low enough for a cold winter. This is especially important since Britain is a maritime climate.
The high SSTs cooked up by last September really killed off last winter.
-
Interestingly a lot of our rare cool C.E.T months since 1983 have had an overall dominance of Returning Maritime Polar Westerly winds rather than direct Continental Arctic Northerlies.
Here is a list of cool Zonal Westerly months since 1983:-
-January 1984
-March 1985
-August 1985
-January 1986
-March 1986
-May 1986
-July 1986
-February 1987
-May 1987
-June 1987
-July 1987
-August 1987
-July 1988
-August 1988
-September 1988
-October 1988
-June 1990
-September 1990
-January 1991
-April 1991
-October 1991
-August 1992
-September 1992
-July 1993
-September 1993
-May 1994
-September 1994
-October 1994
-March 1995
-November 1996
-July 1998
-October 2000
-July 2002
-October 2002
-July 2004
-October 2004
-July 2007
Asides
1 The cool and sunny August 1993 had Anticyclonic Westerly winds which were overall unusually extremely Modified cooled Maritime Tropical airmasses rather than Polar originated Westerlies.
2 November 2005 finished up as a cool and sunny month with an overall Westerly wind factor. However the "Westerly" wind average came from very mild Southwesterlies in the first half of the month being canceled out by cold Northerlies in the second half of the month.
3 Although it finished cool September 2001 had transitory Northwesterlies (Returning Modified cooled Maritime Tropical air) overall rather than direct Maritime Polar Westerlies. In the closing weeks there was also a spell of transitory Northeasterlies (Returning Modified cooled Continental Tropical air) followed by a very warm Southwesterly spell continuing into October 2001.
:lol: 
September CET!
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
September 1919 is the September that has seen the most dramatic contrast between the first and second halves. The first week of September 1919 had 30C+ heat in Northants.
Yet there was SNOW in the third week at low levels in Northern England just before autumn equinox on the morning of the 20th September 1919.
http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley..._in_septemb.htm