NorthYorksWeather
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Posts posted by NorthYorksWeather
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Great read cheers
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7 minutes ago, snowray said:
Well well well, what do we have here now..
Looks like a trough moving in from the North Sea which you can see on the GFS precip charts. Looking at the available data it seems that it may fall as rain/sleet to coast and lower levels but inland and certainly with elevation there may be some decent snowfall.
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Rain for much of the morning cleared by lunchtime, sunny intervals then occurred in the afternoon.
Current temp: 4.1c
Max today: 7.9c
Min today: 2.8c
Rainfall: 3.3mm
Baro: 1021.6 hPa
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Looking at 12z short ensembles it seems the OP is the warmest for upper 850s between the 12th and 14th for IMBY!
Full agreement on the warm up to balmy upper air temps of 0c from the 15th. Beach chair at the ready!
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4.7c here to the 6th, 0.9c above the 1981-2010 average.
The only was is down over the coming 5 days at least.
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Steady rain hitting the bedroom window this morning.
Current temp: 4.1°C
Overnight Low: 3.2°C
Rain today: 3mm
Baro: 1011.1 hPa
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After a cold foggy start the sun came out for a few hours before cloud arrived associated with the front moving in from the west. It has been raining moderately for the last 4 hours.
Overnight Min: -2.9c
Todays high: 5.6c
Rainfall 3.2mm
Baro: 1012.6 hPa and dropping.
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Brrrrr looking a tad chilly at 96hrs on tonight's ECM.
Frosty bin lids throughout the UK!
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A cold frosty morning with freezing fog here in the Howardian Hills.
Temp currently at its lowest overnight at -2.6c
Baro: 1018.5 hPa
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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
I posted the mean on the page behind a few mins back Mucka. It's very good indeed...as I expected it may well be.
The ECM mean at day 10 hints clearly some members show possible blocking to our N and NW , so maybe we will see upgrades to a second shot of cold later in the month.
Certainly would tie in with MJO moving into Phase 8.
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7 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
But not impossible or improbable ^^^^
MIA
Looking at the models I could be below average by this time next week!
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Managed some sunshine around lunchtime for a while but the day was mostly cloudy.
Current Temp: 0.1c
Today's Max: 6.8c
Rainfall 0.2c
Baro 1014.4 hPa and rising.
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11 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:
The end of this coming week looks good though for some snow. Met Office site for my nearest location, Ranmoor, shows light snow on and off from Thursday right through to Saturday so that would be great. Should build up nicely by then. Fingers crossed
I cant help but think these would just be snow flurries Chris, of course there may well be disturbances to enhance precip at time such as UKMO, but I remain skeptical for accumulating snowfall for the time being.
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6.2c to the 4th, 2.4c above the 1981-2010.
Drops likely to continue into the coming week, wonder if we can get back to average?
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A grey cool start to Sunday with some light rain showers after an earlier ground frost.
Current Temp: 3.6c
Overnight Min 0.6c
Rainfall: 0.2mm
Baro 1004.0 hPa rising.
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Clear skies much of today with some lovely winter sunshine.
Current Temp: 1.4c
Last nights Min: 1.1c
Todays High: 6.9c
Rain: 2.6mm
Baro: 998.9 hpa and rising.
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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
We have some pretty heavy PPN pushing up from the SW very soon,will let you know if i see something white,but more chance in seeing this fella
LOL, think your right there. Hopefully this time next week there is some snow to discuss that's not above 1000ft.
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Lovely sunny morning and then cloud increased as the day went on.
Currently got light rain and quite a strong breeze from the south.
Temp : 6.7c
Max Temp today: 9.5c (13.03pm)
Rainfall: 0.2mm
Baro 988.2 hPa and dropping.
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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Yes deffo on the tops,i would not think at all anything white would fall out of the sky at my location but in heavier burst's there might be some sleet /wet snow mixed in due to evaperative cooling.
Yeah, that already happened in Wales earlier I think, especially with that band at furthest south that looks to have the heaviest precip where the cold air will be undercutting.
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Aye just posted on Twitter this chart that shows snow over high ground in the Yorkshire Dales, previous frames show snow over Pennines/Peaks. I would imagine unless you are above 300m though it may be uneventful and above that it may well be a small dusting.
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7.9c to the 2nd, 4.1c above the 1981-2010 average.
Average temps expected over the coming few days with return of nighttime frosts.
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Nice to see a bit of sunshine this morning. It was 9c when I rose at 4am and it's currently 5.7c.
Overnight min 5.5c
Rainfall: Nil
Baro: 994.8 hPa
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Cloudy, dry, windy and very mild much of the day.
Current Temp: 9.6c
Max Temp: 10.6c
Rainfall 0.2mm
Baro 989.5 hPa
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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Even by T60 on the GFS you can see it has slightly moved West, and the Jet is digging slightly more South to our SW.
Yes more noticeable now at t72, hopefully we can continue the westward trend over the coming days.
Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Conditions look better for snowfall more widely on Saturday and not just high ground on this mornings GFS.
The possible event is still 90 hrs away so I'm sure there's more twists and turns to come.
Here's a few charts from the 00z
According to the GFS at the time of the precip arrving on Sat IMBY there will be uppers 850s of -7c, dew point at 0c and 0c isotherm between 300-400m.
That would suggest a good chance of snow falling. Car at the ready in case it ends up being a 400m+ event.