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NorthYorksWeather

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    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Speaking of higher resolution models don't forget NMM has a Europe view that goes out to 120hrs.

    No idea of its verification details but I used it a lot last winter to track details of potential colder spells as they move closer to the present.

    Here's the 6z view for the same time as the Arpege chart posted above.

    nmm-2-120-0.png?27-13

    The only issue I find with it is we have no idea what is happening upstream.

    Here's the link anyway.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=2&map=20

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

    I live near Goathland it can be sleeting in pickering and 3" of snow up here. Love your post BTW. Hope you had a lovely Christmas. 

    The risk of snow is still there for those along eastern coastal areas on the 6Z, however that's 3 GFS  runs on the trot where it has been downgraded slightly with the high moving slightly east every time which will limit convection due to higher pressure and also limit how far these showers push inland. It would take some big changes for the North York Moors to not see snow but myself being 25 miles inland there really cant be anymore downgrades.

    144-779UK.GIF?27-6

    This is a trend we need to see stopping or all we will end up with is a dusting on Flamborough Head, and we cant have @mike57 hogging all the snow in Bempton now can we. :nonono:

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, Richard Taylor said:

    I'll believe it when I look out the window. Far too many garden paths have been followed that don't lead to 'The Promised Land' (which is different things to different people anyway!) but rather take a circular route leading you back to the same spot where you started!

    The window believe it or not is actually one of the most accurate models with a very high success rate with CFS following not too far behind :drunk-emoji:

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

    If this chart was to pull off for around new years day my neck of the woods could have travel disruption and some of the snow showers moving well inland. 

    Possibly getting into central and some southern areas.

    Still to early to pin point exact areas.

    But something to bear in mind. 

    17010118_2700.gif

    Indeed, not sure of your exact location but this time next week we could see a bit of snow from convective snow showers, albeit only a brief window for showers as the high looks to topple over us.

    Latest GFS shows a 12 hr period of potentially beefy showers moving in from the NE.

    150-7UK.GIF?27-0150-779UK.GIF?27-0

    We must tread carefully though @sorepaw1 as these charts are still 144 hrs away, and small changes could mean snow showers remaining out to sea. But fingers crossed we will be up in the North York Moors this time next week testing out the winter tyres.

    • Like 3
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    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    For me the first signal that a cold/snowy spell may verify is getting it to 144hrs on UKMO. Many phantom cold snaps are shown by ECM and GFS due to showing latter timeframes yet never make it within the range of UKMO without disappearing. The next step is to get it to NMM range (72hrs) which after that is when we can start to pinpoint roughly how cold/how much snow etc. 

    Fingers crossed ECM can make it a full house for the cracking 12zs.

    • Like 13

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well the Northerly that was shown in the output over the last few days around New Year looks to of gone the way of the pear. (snow-wise)

    h850t850eu.png

    Tis looking like just a very small Northerly toppler which will keep things on the chilly side to start 2017.

    After it seems the high may settle back over us again keeping things chilly, its after we are looking at a potential for re-amplification as high pressure comes off the eastern seaboard.

    h850t850eu.png

    Whether we can get this is another story, GFS and along with the ECM show promise in their latter timeframes however once again this is in FI which could potentially go BAPS up, fingers crossed we will eventually hit the jackpot.

     

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Nick L said:

    As mentioned above, don't use 850 temps as an approximation for ground temps under high pressure in winter. You will often get inversions.

    Yes that's very true Nick.

    For me its just one of those charts where at first glance for me it doesn't scream potential ice day, but we all have different capabilities of reading charts.

    However fingers crossed we can get some proper ice days come January. (under cold uppers)

    graphe_ens3_skn5.gif

    Not much agreement as we head into the New Year, however the mean runs along at -2/3c so the potential for cold/snow is certainly increased.

    • Like 1

    December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6.1c to the 23rd, 2.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

    Estimating it to rise to 6.4c by boxing day, before dropping towards the New Year.

    Looking at latest 10 day forecast by the BBC for my village I will take a guess at 5.7 or 5.8c for months end which will be about 2c above average.

    December will be almost certainly the biggest deviation from the mean this year, unfortunately on the mild side :(

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by vizzy2004

    At day 7 with see differences with the position of the Euro high between GFS and ECM which will affect surface temperatures across the UK.

    GFS has more of a SW flow with Atlantic trying to make inroads.

    h850t850eu.png

    This chart above is likely to give above average temperatures for the time of year.

    ECM shows the high closer to the UK with winds more S/SE so despite the warm uppers the surface temperatures are likely to be cooler with risk of frost and fog.

    ecmt850.168.png

    Further into FI we see the GFS and the GFS Para singing from the same hymn sheet with regards to possible height rises in the Atlantic giving a brief cold shot around the New Year.

     

    h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

    Whilst not a complete outlier the GFS OP is one of the coldest runs at this time frame.

    graphe_ens3_tzm6.gif

    The ECM does show a small rise in pressure in the Atlantic for around that time frame but nowhere near as good as the GFS and its hard to see how we could get a decent cold shot from there.

    ecmt850.240.png

    In an ideal world I would like to see ECM verifying at day 7 so we can have below average temperatures with frost and fog, and then across the GFS for an Atlantic ridge with a Northerly, however we live in the UK where if there's an opportunity for us to be warmer we always seem to get that option :p

    • Like 3
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