NorthYorksWeather

6.2c to the 27th, 2.4c above the 1981-2010 average. Today's mean will be -1.1c so quite a drop expected tomorrow.

JMA looking fairly similar to tonight's ECM at day 10 with a possible reload.

Everyone will sleep well tonight knowing that the the highly respected CFS is forecasting the mother of all easterlys and -16c upper 850s over central England.

Speaking of higher resolution models don't forget NMM has a Europe view that goes out to 120hrs. No idea of its verification details but I used it a lot last winter to track details of potential colder spells as they move closer to the present. Here's the 6z view for the same time as the Arpege chart posted above. The only issue I find with it is we have no idea what is happening upstream. Here's the link anyway. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=2&map=20

The risk of snow is still there for those along eastern coastal areas on the 6Z, however that's 3 GFS runs on the trot where it has been downgraded slightly with the high moving slightly east every time which will limit convection due to higher pressure and also limit how far these showers push inland. It would take some big changes for the North York Moors to not see snow but myself being 25 miles inland there really cant be anymore downgrades. This is a trend we need to see stopping or all we will end up with is a dusting on Flamborough Head, and we cant have @mike57 hogging all the snow in Bempton now can we.

The window believe it or not is actually one of the most accurate models with a very high success rate with CFS following not too far behind

Indeed, not sure of your exact location but this time next week we could see a bit of snow from convective snow showers, albeit only a brief window for showers as the high looks to topple over us. Latest GFS shows a 12 hr period of potentially beefy showers moving in from the NE. We must tread carefully though @sorepaw1 as these charts are still 144 hrs away, and small changes could mean snow showers remaining out to sea. But fingers crossed we will be up in the North York Moors this time next week testing out the winter tyres.

These are certainly the best ensembles for my area I've seen for a while. Mean around -5c for upper 850's with plenty of snow chance. The ECM has got me slightly on edge tonight at what could potentially happen, cold and dry rather than cold and snowy. Definitely will be viewing tomorrow mornings runs from behind the sofa

6.3c to the 25th, 2.5c above 1981-2010 average. The drop starts tomorrow with Wednesday and Thursday looking like possible sub zero mean temps.

For me the first signal that a cold/snowy spell may verify is getting it to 144hrs on UKMO. Many phantom cold snaps are shown by ECM and GFS due to showing latter timeframes yet never make it within the range of UKMO without disappearing. The next step is to get it to NMM range (72hrs) which after that is when we can start to pinpoint roughly how cold/how much snow etc. Fingers crossed ECM can make it a full house for the cracking 12zs.

Well the Northerly that was shown in the output over the last few days around New Year looks to of gone the way of the pear. (snow-wise) Tis looking like just a very small Northerly toppler which will keep things on the chilly side to start 2017. After it seems the high may settle back over us again keeping things chilly, its after we are looking at a potential for re-amplification as high pressure comes off the eastern seaboard. Whether we can get this is another story, GFS and along with the ECM show promise in their latter timeframes however once again this is in FI which could potentially go BAPS up, fingers crossed we will eventually hit the jackpot.

I'm sure there was an option on Cumulus to do this, il have to check? If not il probably just leave it.

As a weather enthusiast who records data on daily basis, if the CET is based on 9 till 9, should I follow suit to ensure my data is recording to the same regulations as the CET? What does everyone else do? Cheers

Aye no missing data in F1/FI on the 6z Parallel, the pattern is nailed

Yes that's very true Nick. For me its just one of those charts where at first glance for me it doesn't scream potential ice day, but we all have different capabilities of reading charts. However fingers crossed we can get some proper ice days come January. (under cold uppers) Not much agreement as we head into the New Year, however the mean runs along at -2/3c so the potential for cold/snow is certainly increased.

Speaking of ice days, Met Office predicting possibilty of one around here on Wednesday. Wouldn't expect one myself looking at the GFS chart for the said time but goes to show what a bit of high pressure can do for temps.

6.1c to the 23rd, 2.3c above the 1981-2010 average. Estimating it to rise to 6.4c by boxing day, before dropping towards the New Year. Looking at latest 10 day forecast by the BBC for my village I will take a guess at 5.7 or 5.8c for months end which will be about 2c above average. December will be almost certainly the biggest deviation from the mean this year, unfortunately on the mild side

6.1c to the 21st, 2.3c above the 1981-2010 average. Another drop likely after today but then we could see potential rises again by the weekend.

At day 7 with see differences with the position of the Euro high between GFS and ECM which will affect surface temperatures across the UK. GFS has more of a SW flow with Atlantic trying to make inroads. This chart above is likely to give above average temperatures for the time of year. ECM shows the high closer to the UK with winds more S/SE so despite the warm uppers the surface temperatures are likely to be cooler with risk of frost and fog. Further into FI we see the GFS and the GFS Para singing from the same hymn sheet with regards to possible height rises in the Atlantic giving a brief cold shot around the New Year. Whilst not a complete outlier the GFS OP is one of the coldest runs at this time frame. The ECM does show a small rise in pressure in the Atlantic for around that time frame but nowhere near as good as the GFS and its hard to see how we could get a decent cold shot from there. In an ideal world I would like to see ECM verifying at day 7 so we can have below average temperatures with frost and fog, and then across the GFS for an Atlantic ridge with a Northerly, however we live in the UK where if there's an opportunity for us to be warmer we always seem to get that option

Last December was 4.3c above average here, and its currently 2.7c above average here but it's likely to drop a bit this week. December has been very extreme in the last century with a record high and low for my area. Dec 2010 was 4.5c below average!

6.5c here, 2.7c above the 1981-2010 average. After a low of 0c and a high of 4c today it will drop a bit tomorrow and possibly down to 5c by the weekend. 5.5c at months end would see the year bang on average.

6.7c here to the 16th, 2.9c above the 1981-2010 average. Looking at this mornings GFS this could well be the high point of the month, a slight drop looks likely over the coming week, no chance of getting back down towards average though!

Cloudy North Yorkshire up to 6.6c, 2.8c above 1981-2010 average.

6.2c to the 12th, 2.4c above the 1981-2010 average. Small rise possible over the next few days but nothing significant.

6.1c here to the 10th, 2.3c above the 1981-2010 average. Nothing to suggest much significant change looking in the reliable timeframe (5 days ish)