Zenarcher

The 00z ECM agrees with the UKMO it also showed a low exactly like it in the same position which would bring 35 to 45 mph mean wind speeds across Ireland and Northern England.

Overall Summary: Staying cold and unsettled over the weekend where strong winds are forecast on Sunday. Turning milder next week but staying unsettled with more wet and windy weather. Saturday 28th November 2015 Summary: Sunny start for Eastern England but turning cloudy during the afternoon like everywhere else with widespread rain especially for the West and Northern parts. Wintry showers for Scotland. Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 5°C to 8°C. Wind: Widespread gale force winds across all of the UK and Ireland for most of the day. Gusts of 50 to 60 mph likely anywhere especially around the coastal areas. Rainfall: Rain or showers and some wintry 3mm to 7mm. Sunday 29th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy and overcast for most places with heavy rain over much of the UK and Ireland with wintry weather likely in Scotland. Temperatures: Min -2°C to max 13°C. Mostly 5°C to 11°C. Wind: Widespread gale force winds for all of the UK and Ireland with severe gales looking possible over Ireland, Wales and England with 55 to 65 mph gusts. Rainfall: Rain or showers some wintry 2mm to 5mm. Monday 30th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy with heavy rain across Ireland, Wales and England. Scotland see's some sunshine mostly in the North with some wintry showers. Temperatures: Min -2°C to max 13°C. Mostly 5°C to 11°C. Wind: Gales in the far North of Scotland and across Southern parts of Ireland, Wales and England elsewhere though is calm or breezy. Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 3mm to 7mm. Tuesday 1st December 2015 Summary: Cloudy and overcast with rain over Scotland and showers elsewhere. Possibly turning foggy in the North West of Scotlannd at times. Temperatures: Min -2°C to max 13°C. Mostly 7°C to 12°C. Wind: Gale force winds likely mainly in the West. Rainfall: 4mm to 9mm. Wednesday 2nd December 2015 Summary: Cloudy and overcast with showers some wintry possibly wintry over Scotland. Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 13°C. Mostly 6°C to 12°C. Wind: Gales continuing with possible severe gales in the West. Rainfall: Rain or showers some wintry 2mm to 6mm. Thursday & Friday 3rd & 4th December 2015 Summary: Staying unsettled with plenty of rain on Thursday but turning drier on Friday. Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 12°C. Mostly 5°C to 10°C. Wind: Gales on Thursday and into early Friday then easing down later. Rainfall: 2mm to 6mm.

Yes ECM shows mean speeds on Sunday for parts of Scotland being 40 to 50 mph. The center of the low is pretty much in the same position as the GFS so some good agreement between the two at the moment. The possible Tuesday/Wednesday storm looks even worse the ECM is going for 45 to 55 mph mean speeds for most of Scotland with the North West seeing 60 to 68 mph mean speeds. Most of the models show a deep low around this point next week but there isn't any strong agreement on it yet.

Overall Summary: Staying unsettled with gales to severe gale force winds expected on Friday and over the weekend. Turning colder from Friday into the weekend where wintry weather is possible especially over Scotland. Temperatures turning slightly more milder at the start of next week. Friday 27th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy with rain or showers moving in across the West and North. Some wintry weather possible over Ireland, Wales, Northern England and Scotland. Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 8°C to 11°C. Wind: Widespread gale force winds across all of the UK and Ireland especially in the North where 50 to 60 mph gusts are likely. Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 5mm to 12mm. Saturday 28th November 2015 Summary: Sunny start for Eastern England but turning cloudy during the afternoon like everywhere else with widespread rain. Wintry showers possible in Scotland and Northern England. Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 5°C to 7°C. Wind: Widespread gale force winds across all of the UK and Ireland arriving in the afternoon. Gusts of 55 to 65 mph likely over Ireland and Scotland. Rainfall: Rain or showers and some wintry 4mm to 10mm. Sunday 29th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy and overcast for most places with heavy rain over Ireland and Scotland Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C. Wind: Widespread gale force winds especially in the North with the possibility of severe gales affecting Ireland, Scotland and Northern England. Rainfall: Rain or showers 3mm to 7mm. Monday 30th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy with heavy rain across Ireland, Wales and England. Scotland see's some sunshine mostly in the North with some wintry showers. Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 12°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C. Wind: Gales still widespread to start with then easing down later. Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 3mm to 7mm. Tuesday 1st December 2015 Summary: Cloudy and overcast with rain over most of the UK and Ireland. Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 13°C. Mostly 7°C to 12°C. Wind: Gale force winds return mainly for the South. Rainfall: 3mm to 7mm. Wednesday & Thursday 2nd & 3rd December 2015 Summary: Staying mostly unsettled and wet. Temperatures: Min 1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C. Wind: Gale force winds on Wednesday then easing down for Thursday with gales only in the far North. Rainfall: 3mm to 7mm.

30 to 40 mph mean speeds across most of Scotland with 50 to 60 mph gusts. In exposed parts across the West and North of Scotland 45 mph mean speeds with top gusts of 70 mph. Orkney and Shetland in the far North though mean speeds 50 to 60 mph with gusts in the 80 to 90 mph range.

Thanks John, I thought about doing something different. I think they are a good way to build up a picture in the longer term of what the weather will bring. Interesting to know.

Overall Summary: Staying unsettled with gales and wet weather. Strong winds arriving on Friday and Saturday. Wintry weather possible mainly for Scotland. Turning colder on Friday and over the weekend. Thursday 26th November 2015 Summary: Mostly cloudy with some sunny spells and showers passing over Northern England and Scotland. The South, East and North East of England will see the best of the sunshine. Temperatures: Min 3°C to max 12°C. Mostly 8°C to 11°C. Wind: Light breeze for most of the UK and Ireland with gale force winds arriving in the North of Scotland during the evening. Rainfall: Rain showers 2mm to 4mm. Friday 27th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy with rain moving in from the West and moving across the whole country. Wintry showers are possible over Ireland, Wales, Northern England and Scotland. Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 7°C to 11°C. Wind: Widespread gale force winds across all of the UK and Ireland. Gusts of 60 mph possible in Scotland. Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 3mm to 10mm. Saturday 28th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy with widespread rain. Wintry showers possible in Scotland. Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 5°C to 8°C. Wind: Gale force winds across all of the UK and Ireland with severe gale force in exposed parts. Gusts around 55 to 65 mph possible. Rainfall: Rain or showers and some wintry 3mm to 10mm. Sunday 29th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy but staying dry across the South. Rain and showers in the North where wintry weather is possible. Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 5°C to 9°C. Wind: Widespread gale force winds especially in the North. Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 2mm to 5mm. Monday 30th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy with rain that will be heavy at times. Wintry weather in Scotland possible. Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 11°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C. Wind: Gale force winds for most places. Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 2mm to 6mm. Tuesday & Wednesday 1st & 2nd December 2015 Summary: Turning more settled for a short time on Tuesday before turning unsettled again on Wednesday. Temperatures: Min 1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C. Wind: Easing on Tuesday then gales possible on Wednesday. Rainfall: 2mm to 6mm.

The GFS, CFS and ECM have the deep low crossing over near Iceland at the start of next week. GEM and NAVGEM bring it a little lower South to where the Northern Scottish Isles would be inline for very strong winds. However the UKMO, JMA and CMA don't form this deep low at all.

I have decided to make a weekly forecast using the GFS ensembles. Aimed at giving you a quick and clear outlook at the weather ahead. Wednesday 25th November 2015 Summary: A cloudy start with showers coming in over from the West. Mostly cloudy with sunny spells during the afternoon with Eastern England and South Western Ireland seeing the best of the sunshine. Mostly to partly cloudy during the evening and over night. Temperatures: Min 1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 6°C to 11°C. Wind: A strong North Westerly breeze and reaching gale force in exposed Western coastal areas. Rainfall: Light rain showers up to 1mm. Thursday 26th November 2015 Summary: Mostly cloudy with showers. Some sunshine across Northern and Eastern England. Temperatures: Min 3°C to max 13°C. Mostly 7°C to 12°C. Wind: A strong South Westerly breeze with gales arriving later for the North of Scotland. Rainfall: Light rain showers up to 1 or 2mm. Friday 27th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy with showers or rain. Drying up across the South later. Wintry showers possible over Scotland and Northern England. Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C. Wind: Westerly gale force winds widespread over most of the UK and Ireland with gusts of 60 mph possible in Scotland. Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers up to 3 or 9mm. Saturday 28th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy with rain moving in from the West. A chance of wintry showers in Scotland and Northern England. Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 12°C. Mostly 5°C to 9°C. Wind: Westerly gale force winds widespread over most of the UK that may reach severe gale force later in the North. Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers up to 3 or 9mm. Sunday 29th November 2015 Summary: Cloudy with showers or rain in Scotland. Chance of sunny spells over Southern England. Temperatures: Min 1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C. Wind: Strong breeze with gales in the North. Rainfall: Rain or showers up to 3 or 7mm. Monday and Tuesday 30th & 1st November & December 2015 Summary: Staying mostly unsettled with rain. Temperatures: Min 2°C to max 12°C. Mostly 7°C to 10°C. Wind: Gales continuing on Monday then wind easing on Tuesday. Rainfall: 2 or 7mm.

One of the GFS ensembles show the low down to 905mb,

Yeah some insane wind speeds there. GFS shows 92 mph mean winds with gusts of 142 mph.

Yeah it looks more inland for this one. Abigail's strongest winds where out at sea.

South Uist now reporting 84 mph gusts and Barra 89 mph.

Barra 85 mph http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISCOTLAN217#history ST Kilda (high level) 120 mph http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IUNITEDK218#history

Storm Abigail this afternoon,

Seems okay here now it was windy earlier around 3pm where 46 mph was reported from the local weather station. Still looks windy for us this evening but nothing compared to the wind speeds the Western and Northern parts are expecting.

85 mph at ST Kilda earlier today http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IUNITEDK218#history

GFS 12z brings the strongest winds back for Western and Northern Scotland and more inline with the other models now. Mean speeds from 6pm Thursday to 6am Friday showing 50 to 60 mph, Gusts still expected to be in the 70 to 80 mph range with a chance of 90 mph,

Hopefully the 12z runs later will clear some confusion because we have HIRLAM, ECM and the Met Office showing very strong winds for the West and North of Scotland while the GFS and the NetWx-SR showing it to be a near miss for the far North West. Latest wind speed gusts from the Met office showing 70 to 80 mph gusts for most places in the warning zone with parts of the Western Isles reaching just over 90 mph,

Looks like the GFS 06z has moved it further out West. Two gust charts below at 3am one the 00z and the other 06z, Its still just over 40 hours away and usually with these type of storms the exact track it will take and where the worst winds will be usually is fully decided until its about 24 hours away.

Typical their map just updates after I posted Looking at the GFS in the same area the gusts are about the same at the 75 to 85 mph range.

Made up this quick map will make another clearer one tomorrow. It shows the top gusts predicted by the Met Office for each area of the UK. I used the GFS model gusts for Ireland,

Satellite image of today's storm.

Yes top gust across England so far today is 53 mph at Odiham. Some other places have reported gusts just over 50 mph as well. Most places are seeing gusts in the range of 40 mph at the moment. By 6pm today the wind speeds should start to drop down.

Surprised the storm on the 22nd of October wasn't the first named one as it brought gusts over 72 mph in the Western Isles and Northern Scotland. It also had a yellow warning out.