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Zenarcher

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    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 17th Januray 2013, 12z Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Hello everyone decided to pop in and give you a quick forecast for Friday,

    Using the high res NMM model shows a band of rain move in from the West expect this to turn to snow once it reaches landfall,

    NMM and NAE two high res models show this for Friday morning,

    Later on in the morning the snow is expected to continue to move East and into Central Southern England and again both models show this,

    Then for the afternoon and evening it still looks good for Central Southern England,

    I hope this helps give you a idea of what to expect overall I would say the whole region has a great chance of snowfall on Friday the very far South West may struggle to get some snow though but elsewhere looks good.

    Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted

    What are the Scottish Met Office saying about snow chances for Friday onwards?

    I think it's about time Scottish Met Office made their own model and I've put some things together to make this possible,

    I give you SWM (Scottish Weather Model)

    After collecting data from a few weather stations and sending two weather balloons into the sky for data although only one returned it was good enough to produce a forecast.

    Some say the CMA (China model) is slow with it's output well it's nearly 3am but the SWM has just finished processing Friday's afternoon chart with amazing detail,

    Expect the model to get big upgrades if the Scottish government wants to fund it.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The strong Atlantic low appears on all of the GFS 18z ensembles including the control run so the GFS has good support from them none of the ens members want to bring it South like what the other models show. ECM though has great support from it's control run and ens members by having the low dig South. Confusing stuff indeed but soon enough one will be wrong and one will be right.

    High res NAM model backs the ECM, UKMO etc and not the GFS.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by weathermaster

    Summary of the models today using the GFS, ECM, UKMO, GEM, JMA and NOGAPS.

    96 hours Sunday - All models show a low travel across the South of the Atlantic and deepen once it leaves the jet stream, the GFS however is the only one to send this low up towards the South of Greenland and it has done this for the past three runs,

    Here's a comparison to what most models show and the GFS,

    post-6686-0-27804400-1358367755_thumb.pn

    I've gone through the ECM to see if it's been consistent with the other idea of sending the low South like what the other models say and it has here is the 12z and 00z runs side by side,

    post-6686-0-56660100-1358367768_thumb.pn

    To be fair to the GFS here is the same type of comparison for it,

    With this sort of disagreement at 96 hours this is why it's difficult to really know what may happen next.

    120 hours Monday - Four of the six models show a low to the South West of England like this,

    The likes of the ECM and GEM would bring plenty of cold weather to many parts of the UK.

    Back to the GFS it's weakened the deep low by this point the Atlantic still has a bit more power and the blocking to our North is a bit weaker than what the other models show,

    144 hours Tuesday - Most of the models show what the ECM has a low near the English Channel again this would bring further cold weather,

    The GFS seems to be the odd one out here and continues to show the blocking to our North weaken and the Atlantic weather looks stronger,

    Overall - All the models do agree on a cold set up in the short time range but it's where we go from Monday onwards is where the big question mark is, most of the models do show a low travel along and down across the far South of the UK bringing more cold weather to much of the UK next week, the GFS is the only one to show something different and doesn't send the low down South it has big disagreement at the moment from the other models but that doesn't mean it is wrong it could be right but lets hope it's wrong and moves over to what the other models show.

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by weathermaster

    GFS is still keen on sending a low into PV much earlier and deeper than the rest of the models which explains why it has a large deep low to the South of Greenland that's it's third run now it's shown this. The UKMO, NOGAPS and GEM all disagree and send the low across the South of the Atlantic then it eventually moves down South giving us more cold weather. I've just checked the high res NAM model since it can pick up on this low now and I believe it shows something similar to GEM it has the low heading South like what most models are saying. GFS so far has little support at the moment.

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    72 hours

    GFS brings in a little shortwave that rides the jet and exits then bombs out this is the first time any model has shown this, UKMO does show the shortwave but has it more South and doesn't leave the jet just yet.

    96 hours

    GFS

    UKMO

    The GFS and it's love for big Atlantic lows doesn't help our block to the North the UKMO says no and digs the low down more South the blocking on it looks good here.

    120 hours and 144 hours

    GFS just brings in more Atlantic lows that crashes the blocking away but at the moment wouldn't take much note of it because this is the first time any model has shown this sort of idea.

    UKMO stays consistent energy goes under the block and looks similar to what most models said yesterday evening.

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by weathermaster

    My summary on the models tonight using the GFS, ECM, UKMO, GEM, JMA and NOGAPS.

    96 hours Saturday - All models continue to agree on high pressure building over our North and just making it into the East of Greenland,

    We still have rather big differences on the Atlantic low to the South of Greenland the NOGAPS and UKMO have it more South than the rest like this,

    Meanwhile the ECM, JMA, GFS and GEM want to hold it back a bit more and have it further North like this,

    120 hours Sunday - The ECM, JMA, NOGAPS and the UKMO agree on some sort of low pressure system to sit to the West of the UK,

    Then the GFS and GEM don't show a low like the rest do but instead a few low pressure systems and shortwaves a rather messy and complicated picture from them,

    144 hours Monday - The same models that showed a low to the West of the UK at 120 hours now move it South East and either place it over Ireland or near Southern England in the Channel but I will add GEM has managed to show a low here as well and the GFS does have weak shortwaves around as well so they sort of agree.

    What most show,

    GFS and GEM's,

    ECM 00z run did show a low to the South of the UK and I've just looked through the 3 hour data of its 12z run and shows the same thing although it has made changes it still brings a low in to the same place at the same time as before.

    Overall - The models yesterday were just getting to grips of the high pressure building over our North now that they agree on that they have the messy Atlantic to sort out and we still have disagreements there at 96 hours despite that most do show something similar by 144 hours. The changes I see across all models is they don't show a massive deep low like yesterday the Atlantic overall seems to have been pushed back West slightly a sign of the models overdoing the Atlantic that some people on here suspected. A new thing they have picked up is will the low on Sunday and Monday really dig South agreement appears good on most models today and they do continue to look good.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    My take on the models this evening using the GFS, UKMO, ECM, JMA, GEM and NOGAPS,

    96 hours Friday - The UKMO, GFS, GEM and NOGAPS all look similar here out in the Atlantic they have two low pressure systems in the same place although the deepness of them varies.

    The JMA and ECM don't look like the other models here they do give one low some support but don't agree on a low to be near or over Iceland instead they send the low more South East,

    This little image shows the difference between the UKMO and ECM with the low,

    120 hours Saturday - This where the confusion really starts for the models they all agree on a large area of low pressure out in the Atlantic although what they are not sure on yet is how far South it will dig and how much pressure builds up to our North.

    Firstly the UKMO and NOGAPS show something similar here with good high pressure to our North and the low starts to undercut it,

    The rest of the models show the big low to be even bigger, deeper and further West in the Atlantic but they do agree on high pressure building up to our North. Remember the likes of the ECM and GFS yesterday weren't keen on bringing high pressure to our North but the UKMO did. Today the ECM and GFS have moved to a similar idea the UKMO has although not exact it is a interesting change from them.

    Is the GFS overdoing the low in the Atlantic here? It shows a deep 945mb and GEM agree's but the rest go for something slightly weaker it's difficult to say most models do over cook lows at the long range and GFS is famous for doing that the problem is with PV out there and the jet stream as well it is possible to have a low that deep but at the moment not many show something that deep.

    144 hours Sunday - Despite the large differences we do see the models come up with a similar idea at this point the high pressure appears to just make it over our North and into Greenland,

    And they show the low that was at 120 hours weaken down slowly but surely.

    Overall -

    24 hours ago most of the models didn't seem keen on building up high pressure to our North and that the Atlantic lows would go over the top of things giving us a flat pattern the UKMO kept saying no,

    ECM Yesterday

    And Today

    This goes to show the changes that can be made in just a day but this evening the models do look better than what they did yesterday, disagreement is as always big but at least most of the models this evening show and end up with a similar picture despite all their differences.

    Cold weather, posible heavy snow Saturday 10th Feb 2013 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Latest from the NMM model,

    Tuesday morning wintry weather across Scotland and Northern, Eastern England,

    Tuesday afternoon very heavy snow showers around in Northern England,

    Tuesday evening heavy snow showers move South into the Midlands and Eastern England and still some snow over Scotland and Northern England,

    Tuesday night Wales and Western parts of England may see some snow and Northern England and Scotland continue to look good for snow,

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