Zenarcher
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Posts posted by Zenarcher
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Hi WM, looking good. Can I be moved to Falmouth, Cornwall on the map please as I'm here for most Of the year now.
Moved you on the Google Map
Hi WM, my name's changed and i'm about 40 miles south of my actual location. You've got me on top of the Lammermuir Hills
I've changed your name on the Google Map and your location there seems fine your right in the center of Haddington. On the picture map you are a bit further South though but then these maps are not meant to be fully accurate compared to the Google Maps.
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A very late release I started updating it during the early spring but here it is all finished. As the members map turns 5 years old its getting bigger and bigger each year and I'm happy to say this year we saw a huge increase in members wanting to get added.
Picture Maps
Please remember they are not made to be 100% accurate.
Scotland
Ireland
Northern England
Midlands
Wales
Eastern England
South Eastern England and London
Southern England
South Western England
A lot of maps for you to go through and enjoy!
Google Maps
The best and easy way to view the members map click here to view.
There are now 2 pages so click page 2 to view more.
I want added
You can still be added to the Google Maps but you will have to wait until next year when the picture maps update to appear on them. Just PM me your postcode to get added.
Well that's it for another year I hope you find them useful for when the winter arrives.
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Sat image taken 2 days ago
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Had the same problem with my blog as well but its all fixed now and images are appearing thanks Paul.
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Not sure what happened to my blog entry the images don't appear to be showing so I'm just going to post this here and hope the images work.
Summer Forecast 2013
How the forecast was made
I've used the CFS monthly mean maps that pick up long range term trends for the upcoming months. I have also
used a program called Clima Sim to help back up my forecast in certain area's. I used the program for the winter forecast and it done well, so I will be using it again for the summer forecast. After checking how Clima Sim handled the winter it does seem to forecast temperatures slightly more accurate than the CFS.
June - Last year we saw a very unsettled June with very heavy rain at times causing places to flood, low pressure mainly dominated the month we also had strong winds and the mean temperature was 0.7 °C below average. I believe June 2013 will be very different to last years.
Temperature
For June 2013 the CFS shows it to be average for all of the UK apart from the Eastern coasts of England that may be slightly on the below average temperatures.
Rainfall
In the image above it shows June 2012 being a very wet month and that the CFS had it forecast to be wet. This year the CFS goes for a very dry month over Scotland, Ireland, Northern & South Western England and Wales, with the rest being average.
Pressure
The image above shows high pressure being high over the Atlantic region and into Western parts of the UK this would explain the average temperatures and drier weather especially for those in the West and North.
July - Last year it continued the unsettled theme with more rainfall, low pressure in charge and the overall mean temperature was 1.0 °C below average. The weather did get slightly warmer and drier towards the end though. For this year it may continue what June had.
Temperature
Its looking very similar to what June has average everywhere apart from the Eastern coasts that could be just slightly cooler than average. Overall it does look to be warmer than last years July.
Rainfall
The CFS goes for Ireland and Southern Scotland to be very dry elsewhere either slightly drier or average.
Pressure
Any high pressure doesn't look strong over the UK but it should mainly appear in the Atlantic. Low pressure sits to our East. This would explain why temperatures to the far East are at risk of being slightly cooler.
August - Last year it was again dominated by low pressure with more wind and rain and only the South East of England saw the best of the dry weather and sunshine. Temperatures were however 0.4 °C above average. August this year may be similar to last years. It is important to note confidence levels drop a bit here.
Temperature
Average for the entire UK so similar to last years August temperatures.
Rainfall
The CFS goes for above average rainfall over Ireland, Wales and the Midlands. Elsewhere remaining average.
Pressure
At the moment it's looking like it will be a battle between high and low pressure. High pressure mainly very strong to our East and low pressure to our West in the Atlantic. The low pressure doesn't look strong though so the high pressure may win and give the UK a decent spell of good weather.
September - Last year the first half started off fine for most but the second half became more unsettled. It was another summer month with below average temperatures that were 0.7 °C below the average mean. Confidence for September is low at the moment.
Temperature
Average for all of the UK so may be slightly warmer than last years.
Rainfall
Below average over Scotland and South Western England. Elsewhere average.
Pressure
High pressure is to our West and East but low pressure is expected to be over the UK.
Climate Simulations
After finally getting the data needed to run the simulations the results are in for the summer, so to put the image above into simple words the results came back saying that the temperatures on average through the summer will be about 0.5°C above average. It didn't show anything very warm or cold just slightly warmer than usual overall.
Overall Thoughts
Starting with temperatures looking through the CFS trends and the Climate Simulator data temperatures are forecast be be either average or just slightly above average. None of them are showing anything very warm or cold. Onto rainfall and it looks like it will start off much drier than normal with June and July. August changes this as it turns average everywhere with Wales and the Midlands looking to be wetter. September takes us back to drier rainfall amounts close to average.
To sum it up in a few words, mainly drier than usual with temperatures being average or slightly above average but no exceptional warm spell expected.
I hope you enjoyed reading this forecast.-
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I've posted my summer forecast here in the blog section http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4604-weather-masters-2013-summer-forecast/
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I will be releasing my summer forecast this Friday just waiting for more data to finalize everything
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On Thursday morning England will be dry and mostly sunny, elsewhere will start the day off cloudy with showers and even some some mist around Ireland. Through the afternoon sunny spells with showers will be the main theme of weather for everyone these showers will be heavy at times over Ireland, Wales and the Midlands. Through the evening Southern England and Scotland enjoy dry weather with clear sunshine but elsewhere will remain partly cloudy with showers and these showers may be very heavy over Ireland. Overnight into the early hours of Friday clearing up in the West but turning cloudy in the East overall it does dry up. For the wind a strong breeze over Western and Northern Scotland but elsewhere calm. For temperatures central and Eastern England will see the highest of about 14c to 15c.
Fridays best weather will be in the Western parts where it will be mostly sunny but Ireland still has a continued risk of showers. For England, Wales and Eastern Scotland it will be cloudy with showers however Southern England may escape these showers and get away with dry cloudy weather. During the evening and overnight the entire UK becomes cloudy as fog rolls in over the Eastern coasts and showers remain likely for Ireland. The wind will be a strong breeze everywhere for most of the time but later in the day it turns to gale force over the North. Temperatures mainly good for Western areas and Scotland may be the warmest closely followed by Ireland then SW England.
The weekend still looks uncertain at this stage as the models don't seem to have made their mind up on exactly where and how deep this low may be. The GFS has downgraded the strength of its deepness in the last day. At the moment the GFS gives Wales, the Midlands and Eastern Scotland heavy rain for Saturday. Early Sunday the heavy rain pushes West and fog spreads across the UK before Sunday afternoon comes along and brightens up with sunshine. For the wind it will be severe gales over Western and Northern Scotland and Ireland but for England and Wales they remain over the center of the low and get calm winds. Saturday temperatures look still on the cold side but the GFS has it warm up on Sunday and shows 20c may be possible.
I expect by tomorrow we should have much better confidence on the weekends weather as it looks interesting for everyone in some sort of way.
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On Wednesday a low around 988mb will move across England bringing widespread unsettled weather to many parts of the UK. From 1am to 1pm a heavy band of rain will move across England and Eastern Scotland meanwhile elsewhere will be cloudy with showers. For the rest of the afternoon as the heavy band of rain moves around the far Northern Scottish isles across the rest of the UK it will be mainly partly cloudy with showers, Ireland, Wales and SW England look to be the driest and sunniest. At 7pm it will be cloudy but dry for most apart from England and Wales where it will be clear and sunny and after a wet morning it will be a nice way to end the day. Overnight into the early hours of Thursday staying cloudy with showers pushing in from the West over Ireland. Gale force winds are likely on Wednesday mainly in the West around 35mph. Temperatures in general still on the cold side with only the far south of England getting into the low teens.
For Thursday partly cloudy with sunny spells and showers for all of the UK overall it should be sunnier than Wednesday. The wind will be very calm and temperatures still showing no signs of warmth.
Friday cloudy with a few showers creeping in from the West and moving across the country. Wind still calm but coming from the North so it will be cold especially in the North.
The weekend is unclear at the moment but the 06z GFS had a deep low moving over England and Wales bringing very heavy rain and gale to severe gale force winds. The ECM does show a low but it moves more up North to Scotland and slightly weaker and UKMO has it as well and agrees with the GFS on the positioning and track but has it not as deep.
On the longer term outlook for warm weather I can't see any sign of it soon but I expect our chances might get better during the last week of May and into early June.
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Several beached around here are nice and peaceful to visit,
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My summary on the models this evening,
24 hours Sunday - Mostly cloudy with showers and only South Eastern England seeing the best of the weather with sunshine for most of the day. Gales over Ireland and Scotland but a light breeze for Wales and England. Temperatures on the mild side especially for Southern parts of England.
48 hours Monday - Continues the theme of cloudy weather but dries up for most parts although maybe a few showers around in the West. Fog patches are also likely anywhere in the UK as well. A strong breeze for all of the UK with Northern and Western Scotland seeing gales. Temperatures staying mild with around 15c possible in Southern parts of England and Southern Ireland.
72 hours Tuesday - Looking a great day for England and Wales with clear sunshine in control. The same cannot be said for Northern England, Ireland and Scotland with it starting cloudy in these parts and eventually showers and heavy rain moving in later. A calm wind over most of the UK but a strong breeze across Scotland with gales in the West and North. Temperatures for Southern England are looking high at around 18c and Southern Ireland not far behind at 14c.
96 hours Wednesday - All models agree on high pressure sitting across the South of the UK meanwhile low pressure continues over the North. The weather will be similar to previous days mostly cloudy with some showers around. Temperatures still well into the double figures for the Southern parts of the country.
120 hours Thursday - All models agree on the weather pattern to look more blocked than what it has been recently with a large high pressure system moving into the Atlantic around 1040mb most of them have it at. This may bring some classical spring weather to the UK, sunny spells with showers. Temperatures in the South would still remain mild but for Scotland it may turn colder.
144 hours Friday - Models all show something different here but they do agree on the high pressure staying in the Atlantic with low weak pressure over the UK.
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Top gusts yesterday from Met Office stations in their regions,
1. 84mph Northern Wales.
2. 71mph Northern England.
3. 67mph Southern Ireland.
4. 61mph Southern Scotland.
5. 56mph Southern Wales.
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Aberdaron reporting 84mph gusts.
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The Met Office have issued a wind warning for Northern Ireland, South Scotland and North Eastern England, for gusts reaching 50 to 60mph on Tuesday. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&fcTime=1366066800®ionName=ne&zoom=6&lon=-4.05&lat=55.25
9am Tuesday the low is sitting just to the West of the UK the high winds start to batter Ireland and South Western Scotland
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This is just my early thoughts on the Summer ahead I will release a full forecast towards the end of May as more data becomes available.
First of all I'll start with the climate simulator that I used for my winter forecast, I used it as a experiment and it done really well and predicted below average temperatures for the entire winter.
Here's a simulation it ran today,
The pink line is the forecast average temperature and the green one is the average temperature, at the moment it looks pretty close to average with maybe the first half of July being slightly warmer than usual then below average temps by the end of September. I will be running this again during May with more accurate data for my official forecast.
Now onto the CFS seasonal charts for temperatures the averages at the moment point to temps being normal as well and maybe slightly colder at the start for Eastern parts. As for rainfall totals is where there seems to be a large question mark. June and July may be below average but August and September above average.
This is just a very short view from me but in May I'll release my forecast for the summer.
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That deep low in the Atlantic is slightly further West on the GFS 12z run compared to the 06z thanks to high pressure pushing in over the UK and budging the low further West.
Here's the difference between the two runs,
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Here's a comparison between the GFS, ECM, UKMO, GEM, JMA and NAVGEM at 144 hours and how they handle this low,
The GFS, GEM and UKMO have it sink south as more pressure builds up over the UK, meanwhile the ECM JMA and NAVGEM have the low deeper and it goes straight across into the UK.
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For the rest of the weekend it will stay mostly cloudy with showers likely across Southern Ireland and South Western England also wintry showers are likely over the Scottish Highlands. The wind will be calm although the South West of Ireland will be breezy that will change to gale force later on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures still staying on the cold side.
Monday and Tuesday next week continue the cloudy theme with anywhere at the risk of some showers around. Wintry showers may continue over Northern parts of the UK. A strong Easterly light gale will cover most of the UK and Western parts may touch gale force. Temperatures continuing to still look cold.
As we look further out to Wednesday it does look rather unsettled with heavy rain over Ireland and England and gale force winds over Scotland as a low pressure system makes its way through. Temperatures still staying cold but some places will notice a temperature increase as the low makes its way through. The GFS, ECM and UKMO don't fully agree on how much rain or wind it may bring at the moment but it is something to keep a watch on as confidence begins to grow on the likely hood.
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Wouldn't be surprised if it was the Western Isles its windy 24/7 here even on the calmest day there's still a breeze about.
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For the rest of the week staying clear and sunny for most although wintry showers may occur over Southern England and the Highlands of Scotland. Over the weekend turning more cloudier but mostly remaining dry although some showers over the Scottish highlands are likely. For the wind a strong breeze from the North East across England but elsewhere calm. Over the weekend the wind is expected to be calm for the whole UK. Not too much of a change in temperatures for the rest of the week, still staying mostly cold.
A quick look into the start of next week suggests a change a strong low pressure system is expected to enter the Atlantic and slowly weaken and make it's way over to the UK.
Out of the 3 main models the ECM and UKMO are looking similar but the GFS isn't here's a comparison of the GFS and ECM,
GFS has things more flat and the low eventually leads to the North of the UK bringing a unsettled spell with it. The ECM and UKMO send it in a SE direction as the low weakens it ends up either to the South of the UK or over Northern England. Either way it looks like a change is on the way next week.
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Congratulations Glacier Point.
I have enjoyed reading your posts on the forum and the forecasts you made over the years.
Good luck to the future you will be missed.
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Weekend was good here had snow on the hills for 2 days then today had 2 snow showers.
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Wow more than a month ago was the last post just shows that not much has happened.
This Sunday looks interest okay not actually an Atlantic storm but here on the pressure map we have a weak low over the UK and high pressure building over our North West around Greenland and Iceland,
Doesn't look all that bad but where the isobars are tight that's where the strongest winds will be during the early hours of Sunday morning,
45 to 55mph average speeds and gusts around 60 to 70mph for Western and Northern Scotland,
This is less than 72 hours away so likely to happen and needs to be watched.
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Would explain why we are actually getting a summer this year.