Zenarcher
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Posts posted by Zenarcher
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On Sunday a low of 970mb will past over the far North of Scotland giving Ireland, Western Scotland, Wales and England gusts of 40 to 50mph and exposed parts are likely to reach 60mph during 7am to 8pm. Just as the winds start to ease down during Sunday evening just hours later Mondays storm starts to move in just before Midnight.
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Going to take a look at what each model shows tonight,
First where they place the very center during the morning of Monday. The GFS, ECM, GME and JMA show it to be centered just to the West or South of Wales. UKMO, NAVGEM and GEM place the center inland over Northern parts of England and lastly NAE looks to be on its own placing the low furthest away from any other model.
The models are over time getting better on its track but as I've pointed out above there's still some uncertainty of where exactly its going to be. It is a big step forward from 24 hours ago and I would imagine in 24 hours time we will see even better agreement.
I'm going to go through what some of the models say,
UKMO,
Below are gust charts at 6am where the UKMO goes for the worst of the winds,
Wales around 60mph,
South West of England with top gusts just over 70mph,
Southern England inland parts gusts over 60mph possible and along to coasts 70 to 80mph,
South Eastern England over 60mph gusts inland and 70 to 80mph along the coasts,
For Eastern England at 9am 60 to 70mph and over 70mph for the coasts.
ECM,
6am wind chart on the ECM, I have highlighted the area's that are likely to see these wind speeds mentioned in the image below,
9am wind chart and again I've highlighted the area and mentioned the wind speeds in the image that the ECM shows,
GFS,
6am shows average wind speeds in the channel reaching over 60mph as SW coasts could see 40 to 50mph average wind speeds.
9am average wind speeds in the channel are shown to reach 65mph as for coastal areas 58mph average wind speeds.
12pm Eastern and South Eastern coasts get 40 to 55mph average wind speeds.
I've put some images together for the rainfall to make it more clear and quicker to see,
Heavy rain will affect Southern parts of England during Sunday evening and into early Monday. Northern England see's heavy rain later on at 9am.
To all those in the path of this storm stay safe these wind speeds look very high even for some inland parts. Stay safe and be prepared.
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Very rough sea conditions over the next few days,
46ft swell to our far West this afternoon it's very rare to see that,
Sunday morning around the West coast of Ireland up to 40ft,
For Monday morning 30 to 32ft to the South West of England and 20 to 25ft in the English Channel,
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Taking a closer look at what the main three weather models say this evening between the ECM, GFS and UKMO.
Trying my best to look at the differences where they place the center of the low at 60 hours (Monday 12am) the drawing below shows where each model places it,
Thanks to a handy tool on Google Maps the difference between the ECM and UKMO is about 246 miles apart from where they place the very center of the low which explains the different outcomes and the GFS is in the middle.
Here's the difference between them at 72 hours,
So each of them draw out different arrivals of the low, different deepness etc lets take a look at what each one says because either one of them may be correct or pretty close.
UKMO
Here are the gusts for 3am on Monday where it says the winds will be at their highest. So we have some parts along the coast hitting just over 70mph and inland parts 50 to 60mph.
Rainfall charts in MM
Monday 12am rain pushing in from the SW giving 12mm to 20mm,
Monday 12pm rain widespread across England and Wales giving 20mm to 33mm in some parts,
ECM
The 69 hour chart of the ECM which is 9am on Monday I've drawn out the highlighted area and what the wind speeds say in MPH,
And the same again for 12pm Monday when the worst of the winds move inland,
GFS
Monday 3am the GFS shows 60 and possibly 70mph gusts for the South coasts,
Rainfall charts heavy rain moves in to Southern parts along with the strong winds between 8 - 14mm,
Monday 9am the GFS shows 60 to 70mph gusts affecting the coastal area's and even some inland parts. In the channel it shows gusts reach over 75mph and possibly 80mph,
Rainfall 9am eases off in the South but gets heavy over Northern England 14 - 25mm,
As we approach Monday the models will continue to get a better grip on things but I would recommend looking at the NAE charts that you can find here http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=
to view rainfall and wind etc and if your subscribed to Net Weather Extra keep a close watch on the NMM which is very good for events like this based on experience I've had anyway. Sat images, ship and buoy reports will also come in handy when the low approaches they will tell us if its coming in as forecast or if it misbehaves and goes in deeper and takes a slightly different track.
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Question: The UKM GM is usally out to 48/60 hours by now on meteociel isn't it?
Yes it usually is, according to the visitor counter on the site its nearly hit 3000 about twice as much traffic than normal probably slowing things down.
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Sunday afternoon will also be windy with 50 to 60mph gusts across Ireland, Wales and England,
Then 24 hours later the storm arrives giving off 60 to 70mph gusts along the South coast with a chance of 80mph being reached in the most exposed area's to the coast,
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Side by side comparison of the 12z runs GFS and UKMO at 96 hours,
UKMO is slightly further North and deeper.
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This looks like its going to be a short lived nasty low with it pulling away quite quickly
Yes by 12pm Monday the low has already moved on and wind speeds quickly drop back down.
The low does come at a bad time though when its rush hour.
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12z GFS makes the low a bit deeper and its pushed it slightly more North on this run.
Gust chart for Monday 3am it shows gusts of 65mph to just over 75mph,
This is looking very interesting now I'm glad there's warnings out early this could be a big event if these charts are correct.
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Our friends in the outer Hebridies don't have any massive 50 metre trees crashing down on them to worry about.
I know that because I've been there. Frequent windy conditions prevent them growing at all.
That's true they don't have any big trees but there are still some trees around the Western Isles in sheltered areas. As someone who lived there for 9 years whenever it got stormy not much would happen just the ferries and plane would get cancelled, no damage would happen and the few tree's that were on the island would be okay. However during the years there would be a few major storms that caused minor damage, power outage for nearly a whole day, sheltered trees torn down and the causeways linking the islands together would be shut due to the sea being too high. It cuts off all of the islands links to the rest of the country sometimes a plane would have to come in with emergency supplies and if someone in the local hospital gets ill or needs to be taken to a hospital on the mainland for a medical emergency it can be tricky if the helicopter can't land. One time the helicopter couldn't land so the coast guard crew risked their life's and managed to land and take off in extreme conditions to save someone else's life.
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As you folks are far more experienced with these things than I am, how unusual would you say it is for the Met to issue an Amber warning this far out, and one which is fairly strongly worded too?
I don't usually see them issue a warning about 4 days before the event, its usually 2 or at least 3 days. Of course the warning can change closer to the time its always updated based on the latest forecasts. Its giving the public plenty of time to prepare which is a good thing and if the storm isn't as bad as thought when the day arrives at least they done the right thing and gave a early warning.
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I'm sorry I'm a novice at charts and prefer MPH but that track looks like it goes along the channel and takes strongest winds on southern flank to France and 45 knots which is like just under 60mph I think....doesn't seem all that violent to me?
Yes the ECM isn't that windy tonight its the UKMO that's showing the stormiest charts.
The updated GFS 18z has put the winds up here's a gust chart and its in mph.
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The material we can access plots every 24 hours, the point here is about the chart between the jump from 120 - 144 not being available to view from the 12z run, this leaves some blanks to fill in so to speak.
One way round this, and granted it is not from the same run is to look at the 00z for the time frame required, as per below.
Weather Wunderground lets you view the ECM every 3 hours, its not exactly easy to navigate around though http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0
Here's the pressure chart at 132 hours and comparing it to the 00z run from earlier.
Wind chart at 126 hours in knots,
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Taking a look at the short range the next few days and the situation on Mondays possible storm.Next 4 DaysThursday - A sunny start across England and Wales while Ireland and Scotland will be party cloudy with sunny intervals. As the day goes on into the afternoon and evening it will get more cloudy everywhere with rain pushing in from the South West over Ireland, Wales and South Western England. A light breeze for most of the UK and temps ranging from 4c to 16c.Thursday Pressure ChartFriday - A wet and windy start to the day with rain being widespread with gale force winds likely. For the rest of the day Scotland will remain cloudy with showers but elsewhere will dry up and parts of England and Wales may see some sunshine towards the end of the day. Gale force winds will be widespread across most of the country and temps ranging from 5c to 17c.Friday Rain ChartSaturday - Sunny spells with showers sums up the weather for most of the day. Gale force winds will remain everywhere and at times the Western coasts may touch severe gale force. Temps ranging from 4c to 15c.Saturday Rain ChartSunday - A cloudy start with showers being widespread. Into the afternoon and evening it brightens up across England, Wales and Ireland but Scotland remains cloudy with showers. Gales across Scotland and elsewhere severe gales. Temps ranging from 5c to 14c. Overall a mixture of weather is expected but the theme is mostly wet and windy.Sunday Rain ChartMondays StormThe models are still unsure what to make of it at the moment we are still seeing changes and with this happening we can't fully trust them yet until they start agreeing and show the same thing run after run. But for now lets look at each model and see what they say,GFS - Agrees with the ECM this evening and a much weaker low than the UKMO. The GFS shows average wind speeds of over 40mph in the English channel on Monday.ECM - Sticks to its idea and has gained support from the GFS today, it sends the low further South than most models it still would give strong windy to the South West of England but nothing severe.UKMO - Appears to be on its own tonight apart from NAVGEM agreeing on the track. It has stuck to the same idea as yesterday. It shows the stormiest chart of them all this evening.JMA - Follows a similar path to the GFS a weak low crossing the English channel with gales along with it.GEM - Doesn't for a low but its last few runs it did show a strong low crossing over England.Incase you missed it this is what GEM showed this morning,NAVGEM - It does actually follow the same path as the UKMO but the low it produces is not as deep.
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The UKMO sticks with the low and it looks similar to yesterdays 12z run,
Yesterday
Today
Out of the main 3 the GFS has moved over to the ECM which shows a much weaker low to the UKMO.
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GFS 12z looks more similar to the ECM 00z by sending the low further South,
GFS 12z 1am 28th
ECM 00z 1am 28th
On the 06z run this morning from the GFS it had the low over Ireland at this point so certainly a change in position.
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Here are the differences between the GFS, ECM, UKMO, GEM, JMA and NAVGEM.
Most at the moment don't show a strong low. The UKMO shows the deepest low but none of the other models are showing that, as for the ECM it sends the low a lot further South down into France.
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Just an example of how much changes we can see
December 11th 2011 models were showing a deep low over the UK,
Then when the actual day came it saw a large downgrade,
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The GFS hasn't been consistent with the low yet its changed its mind every run, it does seem to want to have a low pressure system but it doesn't know where to put it yet and how deep it will actually go. The UKMO and ECM last two runs haven't shown anything like what the 06z GFS this morning is showing.
Some stormy ensemble runs this morning from the 06z GFS but for those who don't know the ensembles run in a lower resolution to the main output and start with different conditions. There aim is to tell us if the run has support or not. It does seem to have some support from its ensembles and the GEM model itself.
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Comparing the models with the unsettled low pressure systems,
This Friday the main models agree on a strong low to the South of Greenland, most of them show it to be around 960mb,
However at just 96 hours there is a still some large differences between the models, the ECM shows it the weakest out of the runs tonight at about 970mb,
The JMA is the lowest out of them all at 955mb,
What happens next at 120 hours (Saturday) is still something the models are trying to figure out. Something like the ECM shows does have good support from some other models tonight with two lows in the Atlantic weakening,
Sunday and Monday (144 to 168 hours) the GFS places a low of 950mb over the UK,
You could say the GFS is overpowering the low which it is well known for but the ECM 00z run from this morning had a low over the UK its not as deep but builds up a similar picture,
None of the other models show a strong low like the GFS from the 12z runs and its ensembles didn't give it too much support on the strong low either.
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My 5 day outlook,
Friday - Low pressure in the Atlantic gives us wet and windy weather for most of the day.
A cloudy start for all parts with rain pushing in from the South West of England during the early afternoon. The rain will become widespread across most of the UK and Ireland through the afternoon as it moves North East towards Scotland. By the late evening over Scotland, Ireland and Northern England it will be heavy rain and elsewhere either cloudy or showers. The wind will be a strong breeze for most but across the West gale force winds. Minimum temps 2c to 5c and maximum temps 12c to 16c.
Saturday - Low pressure still sits to the West giving more unsettled weather but England and parts of Ireland later may see some short periods of sunshine.
A poor start to the day, staying cloudy with showers everywhere apart from England. In the late afternoon into the evening sunny spells over Ireland and England meanwhile Scotland will stay cloudy with showers. Gale force winds across Scotland and a strong breeze elsewhere. Minimum temps 8c to 11c and maximum temps 13c to 18c.
Sunday - As low pressure to our West gradually weakens it slowly improves over Ireland, Wales and England but Scotland will remain the most unsettled.
Cloudy with showers everywhere until the late afternoon and evening it will improve over Ireland, Wales and most of England they will see some sunshine while Northern England and Scotland remain cloudy with showers. A light breeze for most but across England a strong breeze with gales around the coast of Wales and England. Minimum temps 7c to 10c and maximum temps 12c to 16c.
Monday and Tuesday
A heavy band of rain crosses the country on Monday with Tuesday improves with cloudy conditions with the chance of showers and sunny spells. Gales affecting most of the country and temperatures generally expected to be mild.
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Short and update on my Autumn 2013 forecast, will do a final short update at the very end of the month for November.Below is based on both the CFS data and Climate Simulator which I've just put the latest data into it for a up to date forecast on the temperatures.Rest of October:Temps: Both the CFS and Climate Simulator agree on the temperatures staying close to average but there may be some periods in the North of milder weather and some colder weather in the South.Rainfall: Looking highly likely that rainfall will be below average for all of the UK and Ireland for the rest of the month.November:Temps: Once again the CFS and Climate Simulator agree on the temperature either being average or slightly above average.Rainfall: Still looking below average for most of the UK, only Ireland and Northern England can expect average rainfall.December:Temps: The CFS and Climate Simulator both agree again on temperatures being mostly above average.Rainfall: After two months of expected below average rainfall, December is looking to return back to Normal.Pressure Patterns:October is likely to see high pressure over the UK for most of the time so this would explain below average rainfall and temperatures staying average to above average. November, pressure over Greenland looks stronger this spreads down over Iceland and to the UK. December low pressure mostly sits over the UK but high pressure is never far away from our North.
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My 5 day outlook
Thursday - High pressure covers most of the UK but as low pressure moves down from the North across Eastern parts they will see unsettled weather.Mostly a dry, sunny and bright day across most parts of the UK and Ireland. Eastern parts of England are likely to stay cloudy with showers. Severe gales across the whole Eastern side of the UK and minimum temps 2c to 7c and maximum temps 8c to 12c.Friday - High pressure covers most of the UK giving plenty of sunshine but the South East of England still has low pressure giving unsettled weather.Staying dry, clear and sunny for most and improving for those in the East. South Eastern England is likely to stay cloudy and later see some rain. A strong breeze across England and Wales with gales around coastal and high ground areas. For the rest a light breeze. Minimum temps 0c to 8c and maximum temps 10c to 15c.Saturday - High pressure moves further North giving the best of the weather in Scotland.Cloudy across Ireland, Wales and England meanwhile Northern England and Scotland remain clear and sunny. A strong breeze with a risk of gales remains over Wales and England but for the rest a light breeze. Minimum temps 2c to 11c and maximum temps 11c to 16c.Sunday and MondaySunday staying mostly cloudy over Ireland, Wales and England although later in the day England has a chance of clearing up with sunshine. As for Scotland stays mostly sunny with partly cloudy conditions. Monday rain moves across Ireland, Wales and England as Scotland stays sunny for most of the time.-
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Some windy weather on the way,
Wednesday Northern and Eastern Scotland 60 to 68mph gusts,
On Thursday gusts over 50mph for Eastern coasts of England and Eastern England around 52mph gusts,
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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted