Zenarcher
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Posts posted by Zenarcher
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A nice and interesting ECM this evening the low on the 15th undercuts which helps the output later, interestingly the ECM members yesterday for the 15th up to 52% of them went for a undercut and it showed that things could go either way and today we see the ECM go for the undercut which is good to see.
The difference it makes can be seen,
Yesterday for the 17th more energy going over the top,
Today for the 17th thanks to the undercut high pressure can build up,
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Just had rain here today not expecting anything today but still hoping for something on Monday.
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Latest NAE charts,
Sunday 12pm Northern England looks good for snow,
Monday 12am Snow reaching into Scotland and parts of Northern England, Midlands and South East,
Monday 6am Snow affecting the same parts but Southern England could see more at this time,
In the longer term the Atlantic does look really weak as the GFS shows,
And UKMO at 144h not as flat as last nights run as it also makes the Atlantic weaker,
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4. Could actually be quite interesting for you guys on Sunday evening into Monday as the front heads back west drawing in colder air in behind, and the NMM in particular has signal for some heavy snow for Lewis and Harris into Monday morning.
Thanks for the updates as always
Will keep you all updated if we get anything at this side of Scotland.
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Okay people we come on here to discuss the weather models the previous posts that contained sniping at other members have been removed or edited.
Please send a PM to one of the team members or hit the report button that way it keeps this thread tidy and easier for others to read.
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Before talking about Sundays low the models are obviously very messy at the moment, a very tricky time for them this coming weekend. Over the past 48 hours we have seen the models under estimate the high pressure over Scandinavia for example even the 18z GFS tonight and NOGAPS 18z runs have continued to give it more power this has once again given everything a push West this is all happening around 96 hours onwards and I expect them to continue to upgrade the high and give a push West for another while yet before they start getting it right.
So here are my views on the models tonight and some of their ensembles,
Sundays Low = Models are struggling with it and will change with time the ECM has the center of the low over Wales on Sunday afternoon and the GFS 12z had it slightly more South but on the 18z has moved it up over Wales where the ECM has placed it. The UKMO looks similar to the GFS 18z here they both have it around 995mb but the ECM goes much deeper at 990mb.
The other models like NOGAPS, JMA and GEM have it in a similar position but weaker.
Now looking through the ECM members all 50 of them about 35 that's 70% show the low to be similar to the operational run or make the low slightly deeper the rest go for a low that is weaker so the OP run has good support here.
Sunday is likely to create a wintry event for the UK but where exactly at this range is difficult to say and how much snowfall as well, the 18z shows snowfall across Scotland and Northern England, other parts of England and even Ireland see some, but for this event it won't really be before Saturday afternoon before anyone can say anything with decent confidence.
After Sunday and next week =
UKMO - Up to Wednesday it still has good strong pressure over Scandinavia, it gains good support from the ECM and other models tonight. The changes made to the UKMO today compared to yesterday is the pressure over Scandinavia being given a big upgrade, yesterday 1025mb isobar on the chart barely reached Iceland today it goes much more West nearly into Greenland.
ECM - ECM does have everything further West compared to the UKMO but the GFS doesn't agree with it completely. After you look at the models here it proves they don't have a clue what's going on at 120 hours a lot of disagreements on the little features that make large differences later on.
GFS - The GFS 18z changes show us what can happen, the image below shows the 12z and 18z side by side for the same time the low goes over the top on the 12z and the 18z goes under which gives us a more blocked pattern.
This annoyingly is one of those little features where there is big disagreement on between the models but it is a good example of what may happen.
JMA - Does send energy over our North but it sends high pressure down from Scandinavia but in no means does that say we will have mild weather, no way it says and has -8c uppers across the UK for a amount of time.
GEM - Only goes up to next Wednesday but gives the ECM and UKMO some support and comparing it to it's 00z run it adds to the pile that have made the shift West and upgraded the high pressure over Scandinavia.
NOGAPS - Talking of the 18z run agrees on a blocked pattern and is a good one overall it gives a push more West earlier on as well.
Overall - Sunday still uncertain about that one but over the coming days confidence will grow on what we may see there after that and into next week all the models show a blocked pattern and are constantly pushing things more West this is good to see as it gives the Atlantic a harder time to break through I will say looking through these models and the ensembles for the next 7 days none of them are keen on bringing an Atlantic weather setup pattern any time soon.
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UKMO and GFS have pushed things further West they are underestimating the high pressure to our North,
UKMO yesterday
And Today we see it make the high pressure stronger so it holds off any Atlantic systems a bit more.
GFS has done the same thing
Yesterday
GFS Today shows it has underdone the high even more and brings it in with a push more West.
This is all happening around 120 hours to 144 hours it could be the same thing that's happened many times before the models under do the high pressure and over do any low pressure systems but as we get nearer the time they downgrade the lows and upgrade the highs with a push West.
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Glad it is not just me that thinks that , Can't really see Weathermasters view .. I think he called it way to early in the run,
Sorry a bit late for posting this as I said early in the morning about the GFS 00z run within the short time range we saw the GFS slide more over to agree with the ECM, the overall outcome of the 00z GFS wasn't too great but the early improvements proved that the GFS was sliding more to the ECM.
Today the GFS has started to show what the UKMO and ECM have been saying for a while now.
What the 00z GFS really needed was more energy to go under the block the 00z did make a slight attempt at it,
Meanwhile the ECM has more going under the block
06z GFS had more energy going under the block compared to the 00z
Then the 12z run continued to increase it,
And now the 18z continues to make the shortwaves stronger,
Now when you compare the 18z to this mornings 00z ECM the GFS has slowly throughout the day improved
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18z GFS looks good has -8c uppers across all of Scotland for most of the time between the 11th and 14th.
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GFS 00z is better and has moved more in line with the ECM
For example here's Sunday
GFS
What's changed here from the 18z? Better heights over our North reaching into Greenland then we have shortwaves going under the block both of these changes are a step closer to the ECM.
ECM for the same time
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At 60 hours the GFS has the low to the South of Greenland moved more North compared to the 18z it had it further South. So it moving North brings it more in line with the ECM here so GFS showing good early signs at the moment.
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Video taken yesterday here of the waves and wind http://flic.kr/p/dSedVj
Was a great day of weather had it all gusts over 70mph, rain, hail, sleet and snow and sunny spells.
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NOGAPS looks very similar to the UKMO,
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GFS is a much better improvement I see it making a few changes closer to the ECM there,
GFS 144 hours
UKMO really good as well
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For the 10th 1pm
GFS 12z from today
GFS 18z that's just updated
Notice how the GFS does make an attempt to build up heights to our North East much better on the 18z run.
Here's NOGAPS 18z run for the same day and time,
It may be NOGAPS but it does look very similar to the UKMO and ECM,
ECM
UKMO
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Can't believe it just snowed here for about 10 minutes there didn't expect that at all.
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Been windy here overnight and this morning with heavy hail showers highest gusts have reached around 72mph and at the moment are going at 65mph.
Several schools in the Western Isles have been closed and about 200 properties in Lewis and Harris have lost power.CairnGorm Mountain ski centre said it was closed because of storm force to hurricane force winds.
The six schools shut in the Western Isles include Barra's Castlebay primary and secondary.
The Met Office said there could be could five to 10cm of snowfall, with some drifting, at lower levels.
Scientists at Lews Castle College UHI have been measuring what they described as "extreme" wave heights in the sea off Lewis.
Arne Vogler, a senior research engineer and principle investigator at the Hebridean Marine Energy Futures project, said hurricane force gusts had also been recorded.
He said: "Today we are measuring some extreme wave heights with averages of 12m and maximum waves of 20m.
"The sea is still building up and even higher waves are anticipated during the day.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-21320364
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So far this morning UKMO is good and gives the ECM support and GFS slowly improving with time as well.
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I have just checked the ECM and GFS from yesterday and today as expected some changes from both of them but the ECM is much more consistent and the GFS has corrected itself just slightly more towards the ECM.
7th Feb Yesterday from the ECM
And the same day from today's ECM 12z run
The Atlantic low has moved more North on today's run and is slightly weaker but in no way has it taken a step towards the GFS idea of things from yesterday or today.
Lets see what the GFS done on the 7th yesterday
And today it's picked up on the Atlantic low although doesn't position it like the ECM
Now onto the 8th
GFS yesterday just sent energy over our North
Today it's still not really any closer to the ECM but it does show a low around the South of Greenland and better heights to our North
However still large differences here with the ECM
Yesterday
Today
And just to close the post the ECM for the 10th,
What the GFS had yesterday for the 10th
And today still not as good as the ECM but much better than yesterday.
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Does this have anything to do with it showing cold charts this morning?
My opinion remains unchanged on NOGAPS I used it many times when tracking the recent Atlantic storms through some of December and January it done okay at times I wouldn't rate it as a really bad model or one of the best but still in the middle.
I hope when it updates during February it may be able to compete with the likes of the ECM, GFS and UKMO.
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Of course the term ''Snow Hurricane'' is over dramatic choice of words for Monday and Tuesday next week as the Met Office say in their weather warnings for Scotland strong winds will affect a large area mainly the North and West with gusts of 70mph likely with heavy showers likely to turn to sleet or snow and blizzard conditions likely over higher ground, so yes very strong winds and a likely sight of wintry weather for Scotland but in no way a ''Snow Hurricane''.
As for the ECM and GFS battle we are at that timeframe where big changes can still happen yes the ECM's run this evening is great but as history tells us not to get your hopes up just yet or you may lead yourself to disappointment later, just take note of it for now.
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GFS 2 days ago had the Atlantic ridging slightly more flatter than what it is currently showing.
For the 6th today
2 days ago
Ridging more amplified today which makes it move more North.
The UKMO was slightly more closer to the mark for the 6th
What it says today for the 6th,
And 2 days ago
It also had the ridging not as far North but today we see it upgrade it.
The ECM has also done the same thing and upgraded the ridging, today's 12z GFS at 144 hours doesn't create that atlantic low we see the UKMO does. The ECM has shown the low to do something more like the UKMO for a while now 2 days ago at 192 hours it picked up on it,
And this morning now at 144 hours its still there which the UKMO agrees on,
Also the UKMO 00z this morning showed the low there so the UKMO and ECM showing similar ideas at this time range and the GFS hasn't really shown anything consistent with this each run it's changing around. I would have more faith in the models that are agreeing on each other and being consistent that just one model showing different ideas each run with no support.
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Met Office have a wind warning for Scotland during Monday
Gale and locally severe gale force winds will affect much of Scotland during Monday. Gusts will be particularly strong in exposed northern and western Scotland and around heavy showers which will fall as sleet and snow quite widely. Some drifting of snow and temporary blizzard conditions are likely, especially over high ground.
The public should be aware of the potential for disruption, especially to travel.
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Met Office have issued a wind warning for all of Monday
Gale and locally severe gale force winds will affect much of Scotland during Monday. Gusts will be particularly strong in exposed northern and western Scotland and around heavy showers which will fall as sleet and snow quite widely. Some drifting of snow and temporary blizzard conditions are likely, especially over high ground. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption, especially to travel.http://www.metoffice...Time=1359720060
I would certainly expect this low that will sink South to bring wintry weather across much of Scotland along with strong winds
Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Just seen all of the models for the first time today and it's been said many times before already but wow the ECM is a great run today. Hmm interesting climate simulator went for a cold March when I ran it a few days ago and now the ECM shows this coincidence maybe but it certainly gives us a last bit of hope for the final part of winter.