Zenarcher
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Posts posted by Zenarcher
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My outlook at the next 5 days,Monday Chart - Low pressure moves across the North giving unsettled weather but high pressure to the South keeps warm temperatures and a chance of sunshine in the Southern parts.
A mostly cloudy day across much of the UK, fog will be in place across Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of Northern England. Rain will be heavy at times and will push in from the West over Scotland during the morning and afternoon. The best of the sunshine will be in the South East of England and Western Coastal parts of Wales may see some sunshine during the evening. There will be a strong breeze across most of the country however across Ireland and Scotland gale force winds. Temperatures ranging from 11c to 20c throughout the entire day so staying on the mild side.Tuesday - Low pressure still sits to the North giving cloudy weather and high pressure to the South giving off some sunshine.Mostly another cloudy day but overall much drier, there will be some showers with mist through the Scottish Highlands though. Southern Parts of Ireland, South Eastern and Eastern England will see the best of the sunshine for much of the day. Mainly a breezy wind but gale force winds will still be in the North over Scotland. Temperatures will range from 7c to 20c through the entire day so still staying mainly mild although Northern parts will notice a slight drop in temperatures.Wednesday - High pressure sits to the West of the UK and low pressure sits to our North and East giving us colder weather with very strong winds from the North.Starting off cloudy with a chance of showers anywhere. Into the late afternoon the cloud should break away over Ireland, Wales, Midlands, Northern England and Southern Scotland giving some sunshine as the day ends. Gale force winds will be widespread across the country with severe gales across the far North of Scotland. With the strong wind coming from the North it will push away the mild temperatures and bring it down to around 5c in some places and a maximum temperature of 16c is still likely.Thursday and FridayBrighter and sunnier for most although parts of England may get cloudy from time to time with a risk of showers. Gales across the Eastern coasts but overall easing elsewhere. Temperatures still on the low side.-
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Some strong winds moving over Western and Northern Scotland tonight, at the moment its gusting between 35 to 44mph in these parts and over the next few hours these gusts will continue to rise up to 50 - 58mph gusts.
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The CFS charts on NW Extra tell this story for winter at the moment,
Temps -
December mostly average.
January 1c to 2c below average.
February 1c below average.
March 1 to 2c below average.
Pressure anomaly charts show high pressure staying strong over Greenland and Iceland area through January to the end of March.
Could be a average start to winter but gets increasingly colder from January onwards.
It is early days yet though, if these charts that are updated weekly I believe, continue a trend like this confidence should grow.
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Put together my Autumn forecast and a quick look at the start of winter - http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4669-autumn-2013-forecast-early-look-at-winter/
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Round 2 is on its way tonight and for Monday,
Through Sunday night and into Monday morning staying windy in the Western parts with 50 to 60mph gusts still possible,
During Monday afternoon and evening the strong winds move through the whole of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England where 40 to 55mph gusts are possible and over 60mph gusts for exposed parts of Scotland.
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Using the NMM gust charts clearly shows it well,
Early hours of Sunday Western Scotland takes the main brunt of the wind over 60mph gusts,
Early Sunday morning around 10am the strong winds move across the country affecting Northern Wales and England with gusts ranging from 40 to 60mph.
Then through Sunday afternoon it does overall ease down but continues to sweep across the country at this time Wales and parts of England 35 to 55mph gusts.
A large sea swell will be to the North West of the UK near the coasts 20ft and further NW away from land 28 to 32ft during Monday afternoon.
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Update using the 12z
Saturday night and the early hours of Sunday morning,
The low deepens to the SE of Iceland and very strong winds move across Western Scotland,
Gusts over 60mph,
By Sunday afternoon the low continues to deepen near Iceland the wind speeds up there are very high for this time of year 60mph with gusts over 80mph, for Northern parts of the UK 50mph gusts 65mph.
During Sunday night into early Monday the low slowly weakens and moves South which brings very strong North Westerly winds to Northern parts of the UK 45mph gusts 60mph.
Things get very windy for the North West during Monday afternoon 50mph,
Gusts of 70mph or more likely during that time as well,
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At the moment its still over 96 hours away so some changes will happen but the models in the last day have gained confidence on the area's that will be hit the worse which looks to be Northern and Eastern Scotland. The 06z GFS has average wind speeds of 55 to 60mph in these parts especially for Orkney and Shetland the far Northern Isles and the gust charts show 68 to 78mph gusts for these areas as well.
Wind
Gusts
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Perhaps although it is in deep FI and has disappeared on the 12z run as you would expect. With the hurricane season still going expect more strong lows appearing in FI every so often and who knows they might come true.
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Greenock
Clear and sunny all day. Wind 8mph and temp 18c.
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Greenock
Clear and sunny all day. Wind 5mph and temp 20c.
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Greenock
Clear and sunny in the morning but in the early afternoon it became cloudy. As the afternoon went on the sun slowly came back. Wind 7mph and temp 17c.
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Greenock.
Cloudy, dry and dull. Wind 5mph and temp 18c.
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Greenock
Cloudy, dry and dull. Temp 19c and wind 8mph.
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Greenock
Cloudy with short lived showers. Wind 8mph and temp 18c.
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Greenock
Cloudy, dull and dry. Temp 17c and wind 12mph.
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Greenock
Cloudy start but later on became sunny. Wind 18mph and temp 17c.
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Greenock
Cloudy with showers. Temp 14c and wind 15mph.
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Greenock
Wet and windy in the morning then by the afternoon the wind eased down and the rain turned to heavy showers. Wind 20mph and temp 17c.
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Greenock
Sunny spells in the morning then a few showers in the early afternoon now its sunny again. Wind 8mph. Temp 19c.
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Yes certainly looking windy for all of the UK and Ireland this weekend.
Saturday morning windy across the west 30 to 38mph and showers being widespread. During the afternoon the wind eases slightly in the west but now the entire UK and Ireland experience 28 to 32mph with showers pushing in from the West. Overnight into early Sunday morning the wind eases down to 22mph over England, Wales and Ireland but the low moves in over Scotland bringing 40mph winds and gusts of 50mph. It will dry up for most but some heavy rain will be over Scotland when the low and strong winds move in. For the rest of Sunday only the far North of Scotland remains windy with 35mph but rest see 15 to 22mph and the sun comes out for England, Wales and Ireland.
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Greenock
Heavy rain in the morning then dried up in the afternoon but remained cloudy. Wind 15mph and temp 18c.
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Whats the red line?
Red line average daily maximum temperature and blue line average daily minimum temperature.
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A small update from my original summer forecast back in May,
First onto August and September the CFS seems confident on average temperatures for the rest of the summer. As for rainfall, August average with some Western area's seeing below average rainfall as we move into September things change around with most of the UK seeing very wet weather to end the summer.
And with more data available I have reran the climate simulator for the temperatures,
The pink line is our forecast average temperature and the green line is the average so its basically saying the average temperatures for the rest of summer to be mainly 1.5c above average.
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Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
My outlook for the next 5 days,