Zenarcher
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Posts posted by Zenarcher
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Looking stormy tomorrow with a risk of flooding for Western coastal parts. Heavy bands of rain likely as well.
From Friday 4am to Friday 7pm is the time period for the strong winds. Peak gusts will be between 8am and 11am in the morning. The South West can expect gusts of 70mph and the rest of Scotland 55 to 65mph gusts.
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Currently Fridays storm is deepening out in the Atlantic and heading towards the UK. Here's the pressure chart for Friday morning,
Ireland
From 9pm Thursday to 10am Friday is the time period for the strong winds. It looks like the peak gusts will be during the early hours of Friday morning. Gusts across the Western coasts around 70 to 80mph. Northern Ireland has a chance of seeing gusts up to 75mph as well. For the rest of Ireland 60 to 70mph gusts.
Scotland
From Friday 4am to Friday 7pm is the time period for the strong winds. Peak gusts will be between 8am and 11am in the morning. The South West can expect gusts of 70mph and the rest of Scotland 55 to 65mph gusts.
Wales and Southern England
From 11am Friday to 2am Saturday strong winds will affect these parts. Peak gusts will affect Wales and the South West of England from 3pm to 6pm where 60 to 70mph is likely. For the rest 50 to 60mph.
Flooding
Heavy bands of rain will come off this system and give off heavy downpours. With a high tide along with a large swell in the sea flooding is likely for Ireland, SW Scotland and Western Coasts of England, Wales along with the South West and Southern English coasts. If you live in these area's its best to be prepared and watch out for flash warnings closer to the time.
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GreenockWeather Conditions Cloudy DryTemp 7cWind 16mph South WestDewPoint 5cHumidity 87%Pressure 984mb RisingVisibility 10 Miles
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GreenockWeather Conditions Cloudy with showersTemp 5cWind 11mph EastDewPoint 4cHumidity 93%Pressure 970mb FallingVisibility 6 Miles
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GreenockWeather Conditions Cloudy with showersTemp 5cWind 18mph North EastDewPoint 4cHumidity 93%Pressure 978mbVisibility 10 Miles
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Happy New Year All.
First storm of 2014 looks to be on it's way for Friday at the moment 60 to 70mph gusts are likely through out the day for the South West, South and East,
Still expect changes to this at the moment it doesn't look as bad as some of the storms we saw in December but still something to talk about.
Met Office also have a early warning out but they don't expect the gusts to be that high,
A developing Atlantic low pressure system is expected to move northeastwards just to the west of Scotland on Friday. This will push further bands of locally heavy rain across the UK and winds will gust to around 50-60 MPH over coasts and hills. Whilst this is not especially strong, lowering pressure will combine with high tides around the UK coastline and bring the risk of some flooding.So we might either see the GFS downplay the wind speeds or the Met Office upgrade them.
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Hey folks,
Im trying to get to grips with a few bitties here but i looked at the models for what looks like a real howler for down south, so if i said it looks wild at +168 on the GEFS have i got this right? the site thats in french i think?? and am i right it looks wild?
Been nice up here today (real technical i know) but i know the highland ducks are are vacating south at the mo
This is the GFS 168 hours chart
As you say it does look wild that's correct Ireland would be the worst hit and Scotland at risk of 55 to 65mph gusts. Still a week away and most of the models are unsure how this low will track into the Atlantic. Usually the case is the models take a few days to work out the path. It then takes a few days before its about to arrive on how deep it will actually get.
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For my location,
Liked
February mostly settled, sunny and cold overall one of the best February's in a while.
March similar to February mostly settled but overall colder.
July high pressure sticks around for weeks at a time giving sunny and warm weather.
August most of the time it was good and summer like although a few unsettled days were about.
September mostly settled throughout. End of the second week a low hits Scotland giving very windy weather.
October mainly settled but the final week a little more unsettled.
November mostly settled but at times unsettled the short cold spell at the end saved this month.
Disliked
January had decent cold weather at times but mostly it was wet and windy towards the end and stormy at times.
April mostly unsettled for 3 weeks but the final week got better, overall though nothing special.
May low pressure staying around giving cloudy conditions and boring weather.
June similar to May but the final week gets warmer and sunnier.
December six storms hit the UK some being very severe. No Christmas weather in sight. Mainly cloudy and very wet,
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Wales record is 124mph from 28th October 1989 but if that 109mph gust is correct that record is currently under its biggest threat for a long time.
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Aberdarion and Capel Curig both locations very close and the stations reporting 90 to 109mph the 109mph could be possible would need to wait word from the Met Office if its a fault or not.
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Current Winds
Storm force winds across the Western parts at the moment and a wave buoy off the South coast of Ireland has reported a 83mph gust. Currently Ireland stations are reporting mean speeds over 30mph and gusts over 60mph are widespread. Coastal parts have reported over 70mph gusts some near 80mph. The South West of England and Western Wales are reporting strong winds as well reaching 45 to 65mph gusts. South Western Scotland has seen strong gusts too 60 to 80mph have been reported.
Next Few Hours and Overnight
12am - Strong winds move inland for England, Wales and Scotland touching 40 to 60mph. Most of Ireland will see gusts around 65mph but the South West is a concern where 90mph is highly likely maybe peak gusts could reach more than that.
3am - For England, Wales and Scotland the winds ease off but gusts around 45 to 55mph are still possible the Eastern coasts will see 60 to 75mph gusts at this time. For Ireland the winds remain very strong with gusts reaching over 65mph even for inland parts and the South of Ireland continues to see gusts over 75mph and the Western coasts over 85mph.
6am - Northern England and Wales see wind speeds increase touching 65mph while Ireland and the Irish sea continue to see very strong winds still reaching over 75mph the South of Ireland starts to see the winds drop as the central parts of Ireland see the high gusts. Coastal parts of Ireland still over 80mph gusts likely.
9am to 12pm - Gusts over 70mph move across Northern and central parts of Ireland. For Northern England 60 to 70mph is likely and along the coasts 70 to 80mph.
3pm to 9pm - Ireland finally see's a drop in wind speeds while Northern England continues to see 60 to 70mph gusts but they will start to drop around 6pm there as well. After 9pm the storm is gone and leaves the UK and Ireland all together.
To those in the worst area's forecast stay safe as the reports have already said gusts slightly over 80mph have already been recorded but more stronger winds will be on the way soon. I hope this post gets through with the server issues I haven't heard anything from the admin team about the issues sorry about that.
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Had enough of storms nowAny way merry blooming crimbo lovely people x
I know what you mean this month alone we've had 5 storms affect the 6th, 14th, 15th, 19th, 24th and soon to be 27th. We have been stuck in a unsettled spell of weather for all of December and it can usually take a while to get out of but recent model runs show at the moment more settled weather after the 27th. Still some wet and windy weather around but at the moment no more storms on the horizon.
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Final chart today at 0 hours,
Thanks Cloud 10 for the updates its been interesting to see how much changes occur especially in FI.
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18z does look very stormy the gust charts for Ireland 75mph, Irish Sea 80mph and Northern England 65 to 75mph.
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Lastest GFS shows the low reach 944mb as it crosses Scotland during Friday morning and afternoon,
The strong winds will arrive for Scotland as early as Thursday evening with 50 to 60mph gusts along the South and West,
3am Friday the winds ease off quickly for these parts but pick up along Eastern and Northern Scotland where gusts will be the same 50 to 60mph but the Eastern coasts may see 70mph. From 6am to 12pm winds will generally be not on the severe side as the low passes over us but Southern Scotland may see 55mph gusts.
Onto Friday afternoon and into the evening the West, South and East can expect 50 to 65mph gusts and the South Eastern coasts may touch 70mph for a time as well,
After 9pm the winds quickly drop down as the low pressure moves away.
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Merry Christmas everyone hope your'e having a good day!
Got sent these images yesterday from Barra in the Western Isles some minor damage throughout but some of its been caused by the recent storms as well,
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Another nice end to the GFS FI today,
Min temps would reach around -4c in some parts along with snow. Still very far out but I haven't seen FI charts look this good for a long time.
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Wind has started to pick up in the last hour here with some loud gusts which according to the nearest weather station is around 45mph.
Few minutes ago the lights were flickering as well.
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Merry Christmas and a Happy New year to everyone
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Gusts over 40mph here at the moment although so far it's not as bad as the previous storms from this month.
Looks like the winds will remain strong for the rest of the day but won't ease off until tomorrow morning.
Western isles look to get hit bad this evening.
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Just gusting to about 30mph here at the moment nothing much. Tomorrow morning and afternoon it will be interesting.
K5 Buoy at 941mb and it will probably drop another 8 or 10mb over the next few hours.
Just looked at the 18z ens for Friday I think my neighbours shed just collapsed looking at them.
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Posted a summary on Tuesday's stormy weather here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78846-severe-atlantic-storms-over-the-christmas-period-2/?p=2872152
Looking bad for Scotland during Tuesday morning onwards with 60 to 75mph gusts for most but of course some exposed or high ground parts will see higher.
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Gusts around 75mph have been recorded so far in the SE of England and looking at the high res model charts it pretty close to the mark. The winds will stay very strong during this evening along Southern and SE England but between 10pm tonight to about 3am on Tuesday the winds are expected to increase for these area's with 60mph gusts reaching inland parts and along the exposed coasts 75 to 85mph, I know a few days ago the Isle of Wight recorded a gust around 90mph and these charts look a lot worse than that day so something higher this time is a probability.
From 4am on Tuesday onwards the strong winds will move away from England and ease down. But the storm in the Atlantic starts to move in from the West at the same time. Ireland, Wales and the Western Scottish coasts will be the first ones to feel the wind picking up as we head into early Tuesday morning. These parts can expect 60 to 75mph and the most exposed parts along the coasts of Ireland may reach over 80mph gusts,
Later on in the morning and into the early afternoon for Western parts of Ireland the wind will ease but it will stay strong for the NE of Ireland. Scotland and Northern England now see the worst of the winds with 60 to 75mph gusts being widespread. Exposed coastal parts could see 80mph gusts and the Scottish Highlands around 85 or 95mph. These winds are expected to stay strong in for the next few hours then after 4pm they will start dropping,
During Tuesday evening and over night into Wednesday the West and North of Scotland start to see the strong winds with gusts ranging from 60 to 70mph a little bit lower than what Southern parts have seen but it will still be strong and with a lot of the Scottish islands being exposed and some hilly, gusts in some parts could still reach over 75mph,
Stay safe everyone over the Christmas holidays hope you have a good one. Pretty much all of the UK will feel the affects of this very strong and deep low pressure system.
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wow, shallower or not this is severe stuff.
Yes although its not as deep as the previous runs the GFS gust charts show 60 to 75mph gusts for SE England during Monday evening into the early hours of Tuesday. Then 9am Tuesday 70 to 80mph gusts along the Western coasts of Ireland. As the strong winds move in land over 12pm to 6pm on Tuesday 65 to 75mph is shown for Ireland, Northern England and Southern Scotland. Later on Tuesday evening the secondary low gives Western Scotland about the same gusts.
Thursday 2nd Jan General Weather Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted