Zenarcher
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Posts posted by Zenarcher
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Good to see NAVGEM back it hasn't updated on some sites since yesterdays 12z run.
Current 18z shows pretty much the same as the GFS in terms on deepness and tracking of the low.
Also has anyone noticed that before this deep low came along meteociel didn't show anything below 950mb for GEM and NAVGEM but now because of this low they do
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Going to go through the 18z GFS and 12z ECM and talk about what each of them currently show for Monday and Tuesday,
First up the GFS 18z,
Monday 9am - The low has made a long journey across the Atlantic to give us a hello for Christmas by 9am it is to the West of Ireland and starts deepening,
Gusts between 60 to 70mph are likely across Ireland, Wales and England,
Monday 6pm - The low has moved up to the North West of Scotland and continues to deepen although not rapidly,
During the evening and up to midnight 60 to 70mph gusts will be widespread across much of the UK and the South East of England along with the Southern English coasts could see around 80 to 85mph gusts,
Tuesday 9am - Over the next few hours the low pressure system continues to slowly deepen and moves North as well,
The wind will ease off across Southern parts but the Northern side of the UK can still expect gusts of 60 to 75mph,
The winds slowly ease down but stay strong in the North for the rest of Tuesday.
Now the ECM,
60 hours Tuesday 12am it also shows strong winds for the South East of England I've put it on the image below,
72 hours on Tuesday early afternoon it agrees with the GFS and shows strong winds for the North of the UK,
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Summary on Monday and Tuesday,
Both the GFS and JMA show two separate lows,
And the ECM, UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM show just one single low to the West of the UK,
So we have two different set ups here so if the GFS and JMA are closer to the mark we would see on Monday gusts of 60 to 70mph across the country,
Later on with Tuesday the second low moves in and brings very high mean wind speeds and gusts over 80mph across Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England,
The ECM and several other models seem confident in just one low for Monday. The ECM has been the most consistent by keeping the low in the same spot for the past day.
Here's the ECM at 6pm on Monday its deepening slowly as it moves closer to the UK but the worst of the winds are not hitting land,
But later on for Tuesday morning and afternoon the low moves closer to Scotland and the high winds start to hit land bringing gusts of 65 to 75mph,
Still need time for the models to agree but most of them seem to back up with the ECM and UKMO at the moment.
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Not often do you see the models disagree so much on the track of a low in such a short timeframe.
18z runs
GFS Keeps it more North like before and gives strong mean wind speeds around 50 to 60mph for Western Ireland and Scotland.
NAE Sends it slightly more South and affects the same area's as the GFS but Northern Ireland gets much higher wind speeds.
NAVGEM Tracks the low through Southern Scotland giving high winds for Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland and Northern England.
The differences between the GFS and NAVGEM at 36 hours is amazing and have never seen anything like it look at the differences,
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The models this evening are still unsure on the exact track of this system even at less than 30 hours away. Some have it slightly more North or South.
Onto the ECM at 30 hours it shows a 956mb low to the North West of Ireland,
Here's the wind chart showing very high speeds,
At 36 hours the low drops to 952mb and strong winds hit Western Scotland,
And the wind chart showing mean speeds over 57mph pass through the coastal parts,
Onto the high res model NMM,
This evening and tonight will be windy across North Western parts of the UK currently gusts over 50mph are being recorded,
These winds will ease off around 3am tonight. Now onto Wednesday 8pm just at the low arrives all of England and Wales will have widespread gusts of 45 to 65mph.
1am Thursday gusts over 75mph across Western Scotland,
Looking at the ECM and GFS data they both seem confident in themselves about the low position even though the actual two show something different. If the GFS and NMM are correct then Ireland would still see high gusts but not as extreme to what the ECM shows.
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Slight downgrade on the wind speeds from the 12z GFS still very strong though mean speeds between 50 to 65mph across the West coasts of Ireland and Scotland. The GFS has overall made the low slightly not as deep as the previous runs.
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Here's a summary for anyone confused about the so many talked about storms. So far December has been busy we have already had 3 storms in the first half of the month.
Tuesday 17th - Not a storm but seems to have been forgotten high pressure to the UK's East and a low over Iceland make the isobars very tight over Western Scotland during Tuesday evening and Monday night with average speeds over 50mph and gusts of 65mph likely.
Wednesday 18th and Thursday 19th - What this thread is all about the most talked about thing for this week.
Wednesday 9pm average wind speeds over 70mph for the west coasts of Ireland and gusts could easily reach over 85mph,
Early hours of Thursday 3am mean speeds over 60mph across Western Scotland,
That's all really within the reliable timeframe but with the current theme of weather more stormy weather could be on the way next week.
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18z GFS shows the low slightly deeper but the mean wind speeds have been lowered slightly still over 60mph for Western Scotland and Hurricane Force winds for Western Ireland.
18z NAE model is starting to pick up the low now but still shows nothing like the GFS.
Interesting to see the 18z NAVGEM show a 965mb low over Western Scotland the exact same as the UKMO. Still big differences between the models in a short timeframe.
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Models still seem very uncertain even though its less than 72 hours away now.
At 48 hours there is a big difference between the GFS and NAE,
The GFS has a deep low moving into Ireland but NAE doesn't make much of it on its 06z and 12z runs by making a rather weak low pass by Western Scotland.
Onto some of the other models that have completed their 12z runs I've made the image below to show the differences between the GFS, NAVGEM, JMA and the UKMO,
To sum it up quickly,
GFS: Has the low furthest North West and overall the deepest at 955mb.
NAVGEM: Furthest North but not as deep at 965mb.
JMA and UKMO: Both very similar they have it in the same position just their deepness is around 960mb to 965mb.
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Winds have eased across Ireland and most of Scotland although some exposed parts in Scotland are still reporting gusts over 45mph. Currently England and Wales are seeing the highest wind speeds with 72mph along the coast of Wales. Most inland areas are getting 30 to 50mph gusts. The wind for England and Wales will start to ease off at 3am on Sunday.
Right now Sundays low is crossing the Atlantic and just in a few hours time it will start to bomb. 985mb at the moment and by tomorrow early afternoon 945mb. The worst of the winds will miss land but Western parts of the UK may see 60 to 70mph gusts a more in depth update will be posted later.
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Buoy 62023 to the South of Ireland is reporting gusts of 78mph and so is Capel Curig in Northern Wales. The winds have eased across most of Ireland and Western Scotland now but are still seeing 50 to 60mph gusts. Currently Southern Scotland, Northern England, Wales and the South West of England are seeing the worst of the winds between 52 to 62mph gusts and some coastal parts have reported 68mph gusts.
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Gusts of 72mph are being recorded along the West coast of Ireland currently. Western Scotland is seeing 60 to 70mph gusts and so are parts of the coast of Wales. Northern parts of England are reporting 40 to 50mph gusts. Over the next few hours by 4pm the winds should start to ease off but strong winds will continue to move into England, Wales and Northern Scotland.
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Updated Summary for the stormy weekend ahead,
Using the high res NMM model now,
Saturday 4am to 10am - The low to the West of the UK starts to move in bringing 60 to 75mph gusts across Ireland and Western Scotland. At this time the West coast of Ireland will see the highest winds with mean speeds reaching 48mph for most of this time.
11am to 4pm - As the low moves North the strong winds will start to move across the UK. During this time Ireland, Scotland, Wales and Northern England will see 55 to 65mph gusts but exposed parts have a high risk of 70 to 75mph. Western coastal parts will see mean speeds of 52mph.
5pm to 11pm - The low continues to move North bringing gusts over 60mph for the Northern Scottish Isles meanwhile England and Wales will get 40 to 55mph gusts. Mean speeds could reach over 35mph in parts of England and Wales and for the Northern Scottish Isles around 52mph mean speeds.
Sunday 6am to 10am - Another low comes across the Atlantic and this time it is even deeper but the good news is the worst of the winds will be out in the Atlantic and miss the land. The K5 Buoy will be one to watch it is in the direct path of very high wind speeds currently it could see 77mph mean speeds with gusts over 90mph. During the early hours of Sunday winds pick up across Western Ireland where 60mph gusts are likely. As it moves the winds will pick up for Western Scoland where 65mph gusts are likely.
Sunday 11am to 6pm - Winds across Northern parts of the UK will range from 50 to 65mph. Exposed parts and high ground areas will see much higher.
After 6pm it moves away from the UK as the winds ease although the Northern Scottish Isles will see strong winds for the rest of the day.
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I've put together a summary on this weekends stormy weather http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78733-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-saturday-14th-december-2013-onwards/?p=2860830
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18z NAVGEM is not as deep as the GFS and is very similar to the UKMO at 1pm on Sunday,
They all agree on the track but the deepness is still expected to change between the models.
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Quick summary ahead of the stormy weekend that is expected to affect Scotland the worst but Ireland, Wales and Northern England will also see strong winds.
Saturday
A low sweeps across the Atlantic and gradually deepens as it passes Ireland,
Strong winds will be to the West of Ireland average speeds ranging from 40 to 58mph along the coast,
Gusts between 70 to 85mph are likely as well for those on the very edge of the coasts in exposed parts,
By 12pm into the afternoon the low will make its presence felt across most of the UK with gusts between 60 to 70mph,
Saturday Night
A little feature that's being picked up as we get closer is this little low to the West of Scotland,
Although it may look harmless it would bring 45 to 55mph average wind speeds for a short period of time for South Western Scotland,
Sunday
This low arrives shortly after by Sunday afternoon it is very deep to the far West of Scotland. The models seem to be getting to grips with it now. They agree on the path but the deepness still varies some have it deeper and some not so deep. Either way some very stormy winds.
Sunday afternoon as the low moves in gusts around 70mph for Western Scotland,
Then through the afternoon 60 to 75mph gusts along Scotland's coasts but not too far away from land is where the worst of the winds look to be average speeds over 70mph and gusts over 90mph,
Through the evening the low moves North and so do the winds as they head into the Northern Scottish Isles staying very strong for up there as well.
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Looks like the models have pushed Sundays storm further out into the Atlantic making the worst of the winds not hit land. Saturday looks very windy and Sunday still will be for Scotland however at the moment I don't think it will be as bad as last Thursdays storm.
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At 72 hours still some disagreement,
UKMO and ECM show a low crossing the Atlantic,
The GFS 00z and 06z runs had something like this the low is flatter and its further South as well,
At 96 hours the ECM and UKMO show a low to the East of Iceland
The GFS has it slightly more South and a lot deeper,
Either way they all agree on strong winds on Saturday for Western Scotland.
Also the ECM at 96 hours forms another low in the Atlantic and looking through its hourly data it shows the strong low passing the NW of Scotland on Sunday afternoon between 12pm and 5pm. The 12z run had this as well but overnight the ECM did downgrade it slightly. Both the UKMO and GFS don't show this.
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More snow showers here through the evening and its settling on the cars now.
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More heavy snow showers here through this afternoon with sunshine in between. Just went to the town rubbish everywhere from the bins last night.
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Very windy over night here with a bit of flooding in some parts. About 20 minutes ago we had a snow shower first one yet.
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I experienced Hurricane Bawbag when I lived in the Western Isles at the time the average speed that day forecast was 72mph. At 11.30am it was at its worst, usually storms happen over night and you see nothing but this one peaked at midday. So at that time I heard one of the biggest gusts I've ever heard outside was was crazy the sea was just spray and the waves were going over the pier onto the roads. The sound of this in a house is also crazy up the stairs the roof constantly rattles and you can see the windows actually shaking and move about yes even double glazed windows do this.
I remember shortly after this it eased off quickly and by the evening you would think it was another day.
I got a shock when i saw that is in knots!!! so times the figure by 1.15 so that blob of grey just below stirling suggesting 88 knots is actually 101mph? surely not.
I see the max on one of the graphs was 90 knots which is 103.5 mph!
No you're reading it wrong its saying mean speeds around 60 to 70mph still very high though.
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Taking a look at what the models say for Thursday and Friday this week,
A deep area of low pressure moves into the UK, the models are still unsure on its deepness and exact track.
NAVGEM and the GFS go for the deepest but the UKMO and several other models go for strong winds but something less severe.
The image below shows the difference between the GFS and UKMO at 72 hours there we see disagreement on deepness and the track,
First onto the wind, early Thursday morning average wind speeds reach over 60mph over Western parts of Scotland,
Through the early afternoon and later on by 3pm very strong winds move across the Northern Britain. Gusts are likely to reach 60 to 70mph but in exposed parts 80mph could be possible.
The winds will ease on Thursday night and into Friday morning.
Now onto the possible wintry weather but I would say at this range its not to be taken serious just yet but still its worth a look,
Thursday morning as the strong winds move in Northern parts of Scotland see snow,
Temperatures will drop though out the day quickly on Thursday morning minimum temps are 1 to -1c,
But by Thursday evening the Northern parts of the UK see -2 to -5c and and the Scottish Highlands -7c.
As the cold air moves further South wintry weather could reach parts of England, Wales and Ireland on Thursday evening,
Then through Thursday night into Friday morning snow over Northern Scotland and could possibly continue to be around parts of England and Wales,
Friday night is looking very cold through out the UK with -11c in the Scottish Highlands and -1c to -6c being widespread through inland parts,
I believe we are in for a very interesting week of weather ahead with stormy weather and very cold temperatures with a risk of snow all to play for.
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Looking stormy on Thursday 80 to 90mph gusts could be recorded in very exposed parts of Scotland if the current GFS is to be believed. Some very cold temperatures will arrive as well with wintry showers being widespread.
Interesting week ahead.
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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Didn't expect this at all its pushed the low further West making the very worst of the winds at about 12am Tuesday but out in the Atlantic. The low then moves to the UK mainly Ireland and Northern England still bringing strong winds with it 65 to 75mph at least maybe higher in some exposed parts.
But this is a large change to see from the GFS around 18 hours is where it gives the low a big push West compared to the 06z run this morning.