Zenarcher
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Posts posted by Zenarcher
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Over the years of watching the weather models and some posts in the mod thread this is what it seems like when a model shows cold it's good but when it doesn't it's bad.
I made this to show what I've read some people say over the years,
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That goes completely against the latest forecast on Country file 15 minutes ago. Country File holds firm of heavy snow (possible very heavy with totals really building up) tomorrow afternoon in North east England in particular with snow along the east from Edinburgh right down to Norwich
Will be interesting to see who is right we will find out soon
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Monday's forecast using high res model NMM,
Monday morning snow mainly over the Midlands and Eastern parts of England but also a mixture of sleet and snow for some parts of Northern England and Scotland,
Monday afternoon a mixture of sleet and snow for some parts of Scotland and snow or sleet for Eastern England,
Monday evening starts to dry up across the South of the UK but Scotland and Northern England are at risk of some heavy snow showers forming at this point,
Monday night parts of England and Scotland still at risk of heavy snow showers forming,
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UKMO 144h nice,
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Nice UKMO 120h!
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Weather: Clear and sunny.
Wind: 16mph West.
Temp: 7c.
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Heavy hail shower at the moment mixed with sleet.
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Anyone know if I have any chance of snow on Monday morning? NAE shows snow for me but for the rest of the Western Isles rain it's done this before and all I got is rain.
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Sunday outlook using high res model NMM
Sunday morning heavy snow across most of Scotland mainly the Highlands also some snow over Northern England,
Sunday afternoon snow continuing over Scotland and the far North of England, but also see some snow in South Eastern England,
Sunday evening snow still falling in parts of Scotland but the main band of snow is over most of Northern England and parts of Wales,
Sunday night starts to dry up in Scotland but still seeing wintry weather there but the main stuff is further South over Northern England, Wales and the Midlands.
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The UKMO is a good run in the longer term and holds off the Atlantic by building heights to our North that's a few runs now it's done this and has not moved over to agree with the ECM,
GFS 06z looked more similar to the ECM and didn't build up heights to our North but the 12z run gives the UKMO support on building heights up to our North something the GFS 00z showed as well,
Overall these are good runs and at this range it's the trend that counts not the exact details.
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Good GFS and UKMO there nice to see. The 18z GFS had the Atlantic slightly stronger and the pattern more flat on the 00z run it holds the Atlantic back a bit more and builds heights over our North something the UKMO agrees with on it's 12z run and now again this morning.
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Any chance this thread can be pinned down? Appears a lot of work has gone into it!
Perhaps the author may also find time every now and then to add some more people who choose to be included, that would be terrific - lots of international contributors on this forum too, that may have missed this thread.
Hi Styx
The way it's been done since 2008 is just one update a year, basically I make a topic asking people to be added.then I add them to the Google map that's nice and easy to do but the picture maps take a long time to do that's why it's just mainly a yearly update but I say every time anyone can be added to the Google map through out the year. Last year the maps were delayed for a weeks because usually it was just one big UK map but due to over crowding it's been split up into sections.
The map for 2013 will be getting updated soon around March. This time I will try and get people from around the world to be added.
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Was a real nasty one. Family of five lost.
Detailed info on how it unfolded here: http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id85.html
Needless to say "bombogenesis" was involved.
Very sad indeed
I remember writing up a report on it in the history part of the forum if anyone wants to know more
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Exactly 8 years ago today a storm hit Scotland,
Wind speeds were well over 100mph across Western parts a event I will never forget.
Anyway back to the present time looking cold for this weekend onwards into next week most places looking to have a good spell of cold snowy weather.
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Weather: Partly cloudy.
Wind: 15mph South East.
Temp: 6c.
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Using the NMM model which is run in high res this is what it shows for the whole of Saturday
Saturday Morning Snow likely over Northern England and parts of Scotland,
Saturday Afternoon still snow and sleet in parts of Scotland Northern England and sleet showing over Wales,
Saturday Evening wintry weather continues in Northern parts of the UK and Southern Wales see some of it as well,
Saturday Night heavy snow passes through Northern England and still snowing for parts of Scotland meanwhile Southern parts of England get some wintry weather,
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Models on their 12z runs today are much better I'm happy to see this, just goes to show they are still changing big things even at 60 hours.
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Okay guys can we cut the sniping at each other and calm down and discuss the models please, remember there are report buttons and ignore options.
Back to the models ECM is at 72h and looking good so far
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GME the first model run of the night agrees with the ECM,
Looks good on it.
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GFS continues to slowly move over to the ECM,
The low in the Atlantic is further West on this run and the shortwave to our North looks more similar to the ECM.
Good upgrades.
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Interesting outputs today so far,
GFS may slowly be trending towards the likes of the ECM and UKMO,
Yesterday
Today
To the North the low has moved slightly more SE on today's run something most of the other models have been saying.
UKMO has seen a big change in the past 24 hours,
Yesterday
Today
Despite the changes the 144 hour chart still looks good as heights build to our North something the ECM pointed out earlier on,
GEM's 12z run is good and gives the UKMO and ECM more support than the GFS,
Is the GFS just slowly catching up?
00z things over Iceland still flat and in large disagreement with the other models,
12z Moving over to the ECM it seems,
Want a better picture here,
That shows the ECM and both the GFS 00z and 12z the ridging and the low to our North on the 12z has moved over to the ECM. I believe the GFS is slowly backtracking judging from all of this.
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Weather: Clear and sunny.
Wind: 18mph South East.
Temp: 6c.
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Temperatures still rising and appears to match the temperature we had in mid November.
No sign of stopping.
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NOGAPS appears to have downgraded itself not as bad as the GFS run though. So many changes.
I'm afraid with complicated set ups the models really struggle even the best ones so more changes will occur.
Edit - I see GEM goes with the UKMO good to see.
Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
GFS 144h
NOGAPS 144h
UKMO 144h
Both the UKMO and NOGAPS undercut while the GFS doesn't interesting and GEM will be out shortly wonder what it will do.