SouthYorks

Overnight GFS and Mogreps all show potential interest for the Christmas period. Forecasting where any snow will end up is probably going to come down to nowcasting, but here are the Mogreps postage stamps for Boxing Day. Those that show snow mostly pick out the Midlands as the sweet spot with it just bordering on our region. No doubt there will be more changes.

Latest Fax charts for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look very interesting.

@Kasim Awan Given the trend South for the cold on todays 12z runs, our region is likely to miss out on the snow on the front coming in from the West. However, it looks as though the current setup will deliver an Easterly fairly quickly, so what are your thoughts snow wise for us off that Easterly?

From our regional perspective, it’s definitely a downgrade from the snow shown on yesterdays charts for Christmas Day and Boxing Day. But if the block is stronger the cold will likely last longer and more opportunities for snow further down the line and notably could be from the East. There were several mentions yesterday in the Mod thread where folks commented that lows shown to track West to East under the slider setup often trend further South as we get nearer that date. As we are still 5 days away from Christmas Day and another 17 GFS, 8 UKMO and 8 ECM runs, I suppose anything could be shown and none of them correct!

GFS 12z is also an improvement for cold but, because the front stalls and slides it never makes it to our region. There is virtually no precipitation in Christmas Day and this is as far as it gets before sliding South East on Boxing Day. We might end up cold but find ourselves in a no mans land re snow falling, unless the low continues to move further south as we get nearer the day, in which case we may see snow coming in off an Easterly.

After a nice GFS 6z this morning the UKMO 12z now gets back onboard with the bowling ball low now split into 2 weaker lows and sliding under the block on Christmas Day, and just look at those 850’s for Boxing Day! Much improved!

I’d also just spotted that tweet from Matt H. The Easterly wind direction would indicate that the low approaching from the West is progged to take a Southerly track. Goods news for us!

I’d take that!

ECM Ops also confirmed as a mild outlier from Christmas day onwards.

Interesting that Steve Murr on Twitter is going with the GFS over the Euros. He normally favours the Euros and bins the GFS!

Christmas week still looks up in the air at the moment. From the 0z runs today GFS has switched back to a cold outlook, along with GEM, JMA and ICON, but UKMO and ECM have switched to mild! You couldn’t make it up really!

Sounds interesting Kasim! Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

Welcome to the friendly regional thread. We have some great knowledgeable posters in here as well as them being active in the Mod thread. And yes, hopefully some really interesting weather to come in the next few weeks and the rest of winter.

If this goes t*ts up this week, just watch out for the gnashing of teeth, toy throwing and downright tantrums!

Fantastic to see you back posting @Scott Ingham. This thread is the place to be in winter, with friendly informative posts. @Kasim Awan Brilliant contributions from you in the Mod thread. Keep them coming!

Done very well in our part of Barnsley, with another 3 inches in about 3 hours today. Needed to get out to care for an elderly relative so had to bring the AWD into action. Once again lots of people struggling to get about on local streets but my XC40 did the job without a single wheelslip!

According to Harmonie and NMM the same areas around South Yorkshire could be the sweet spot again for an hour or 2 of snow this afternoon. Arpege and Arome have the precipitation at tad further west, so would be mostly over pennines/Manchester.

Looks like the Tan Hill Inn got absolutely battered!

A better picture of our downed Christmas tree, from outside and inside the house.

Picture from one of the J37 cameras

About 3 inches of snow in Barnsley. Didn’t really hear the wind during the night but it’s brought down our 20 year old 30+ foot Christmas tree in the front garden. (It’s the dark shape botton right corner of the the first picture and it used to stand between the house and the garage. It’s now leaning against the front of the house!)

We didn’t really get much in Barnsley! Most showers from the North East didn’t reach this far with them dissipating around Goole/Thorne. There were a few got through as the wind turned more Easterly and those that did most seemed to pass either North or South of us. We did get a few direct hits, so we just ended up with a dusting! Where it did settle, the sun thawed that and even in the shade it has seemed to gradually evaporate over the last few days. It’s a bit different further West where elevation helped. We went walking this week at Langsett Reservoir west of Penistone and there was about 8-10cm where it was undisturbed.

It looks to have moved faster and is slightly further East compared to WRF-NMM and Euro4, but I’d say it’s now starting to stall against the block as was expected. Could be a good temporary covering over Wales today.

Your thinking is similar to mine, particularly re timescales for a return of cold which is why I thought the Petagna tweet yesterday was a bit odd re cold returning possibly Friday! Timescale felt wrong yesterday and having seen overnight models, even more so this morning. And completely agree re snow in March, I’ve seen really good snow falls many times over the years. More recently, we actually got caught in the BFTE2 in March 18 whilst we were away for a few days in Filey! The vid below was 3 hours before high tide, which if you know Filey is quite astonishing. E78D591E-4F62-4EAD-AB34-832EA12C161B.MOV

I’m surprised they didn’t change it yesterday, although Marco Petagna also tweeted yesterday that cold from the East would be back again possibly as soon as next Friday!