SouthYorks

Despite the models now showing a blow torch South/South Westerly for the 10 days time, the Met Office are stoically sticking to their forecast of a few milder days before turning colder again.... ??

Time to get the shorts and t-shirts out then... . Judging by latest wording from Meto, they appear to be seeing something a bit less extreme to this... ??

Guess which side get the sun in my garden!

He said, above average temps (10-12c) for South West by Monday. Models not showing these temps for our region currently, albeit definitely less cold than currently.

And one or two professionals are still hinting at a return to cold later in the month...

A few more very light showers last night so this morning very white with the severe overnight frost. For next week, according to the overnight models, it’s looking very much like the rotund female vocalist has sung her tune wrt to cold hanging on...

GFSP now going for 2 snow events next week, the first on Monday followed by a less cold day on Tuesday with a rain to snow event on Wednesday leading to significant accumulations. Of course we all know how accurate these were this week, so large pinch of salt required!

Finely balanced I’d say. All models currently bring less cold air in next week, but it takes 2 or 3 attempts from the West before they finally remove the very cold air. Todays output seems more positive given that it’s a slower transition and currently looks like the cold holds on longer hence the snow during the transition. The other option, and for me not to be discounted at the moment, is that the fronts stall and the cold air fights back from the East.

GFS and GFSP join the GEM and Arpege going for a snowy breakdown!

GEM 12z going for a big breakdown snow event on Monday with about 18 hours of moderate snow!

Outlook is finely balanced into next week but Arpege 12z maintains the interest for Sunday with light to moderate snow across the region from around 10am until 7pm!

Best snow shower in 3 days of waiting. From nothing to white over in less than 5 minutes! A6798CF6-30C0-4DD5-B830-DFBD139538D1.MOV

The way its building as it moves SW, even I might catch the southern edge of it in Barnsley! You don’t mind sharing do you?!?

Still only a dusting at home, so went out 15 minutes west of Barnsley to Langsett for my snow fix this morning! Lots of the snow on the tracks was already compressed, but where it wasn’t on average it was 8-10cm deep but more in places exposed to the wind. It’s clearly been exceptionally cold there, as large parts of the reservoir were frozen!

Anyone fancy a 12 hour breakdown blizzard next Monday? GFSP is back with news!

That will be another miss then!

Yep, just been tracking the showers coming in! The one just passed through did the same as others this week. Looked reasonable then got within about 5 miles of Barnsley, lost intensity so gave another light dusting, then as soon as it got past us, it intensified again. The next set of showers are, as posted earlier, going to pass to our south again! Intensely frustrating!

Those nearest fizzling out again! . Showers further East are looking like they are going to slip just south of me (again!!!!!! )

Please for the love of god let this one reach me here!

And it still managed to miss me!

A few people have asked this morning why the snow showers haven’t been heavy these last few days. I hope @johnholmes doesn’t mind, but he posted this in the MOD thread earlier explaining why.... ‘Just a comment about the showers coming in off the N Sea during this cold spell. None of the skew-t diagrams, sveral days prior to the first showers, nor during the last 48 hours have shown cloud tops above 8-at times 12,000 ft. The air aloft has not been as cold as say on previous cases when bands/showers have affected eastern and central hours. Thus the intensity of many of the showers has not been very high. Obviously in a few locations the frequency tended to make up for this. I have not noticed any posts about 'thunder-snow' another indication that the instability has not been very marked.’

Love your optimism @Craigers! I can see a few light showers making as far as us in the west of the region but I think they will mostly fizzle out around Goole/Thorne as they did yesterday.

Temps in double digits possibly in the South West, maybe encroaching into West, but I don’t see that for the East of England. Single digit 5-7c maybe after the weekend for our region would be my thoughts.

Met Office short and extended outlook continue to give interest. Perhaps not as cold as now after the weekend, but certainly not appearing to go mild in our region for some time yet.

Overnight GFS Ens keeps the cold surface temps with us out until Monday, and then followed by a slow return to something slightly less cold but definitely still not mild.