SouthYorks

Over Scotland and will start making it way South soon and reach far North of Yorkshire early tomorrow then slowly make its way South into the Midlands by midnight Sat/Sun.

It’s definitely a bit further South but if you watch the the run to the end, it still has it edging North too far in my view the result that it predicts a dearth of showers into South and West Yorkshire/Lincolnshire. I’d prefer to see a further adjustment South... Lets see what the other models show and then onto the 18z. Also, just to add, the Meto Amber warning area for Sunday may also provide some guidance as to where they think the most persistent snow will occur (although the warnings haven’t been that great for accuracy this winter!)

ICON 12z has adjusted the snow on Sunday back South again compared to same time on 6z, bringing it more into line with Euro4 6z. Here for comparison. You can also see how the streamer showers also move South, so for me this is a positive move.

ICON 12z brings snow into the North of our region a bit earlier, with it starting over higher ground late afternoon and mostly clearing South around midnight.

@LeeSnowFan ICON here WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine ICON-EU 0.065° du DWD (météo allemande) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Sud-Ouest...

Agreed! Too high risk, as I think it wouldn’t get far enough North to be material in terms of snowfall but would kill the streamers for our region!

I think we are still some way off determining how far North the snow will get in Sunday. To compare a few models At +48 At +54 To my eye, ICON is furthest North with this feature and the hi-res Euro4 furthest South.

That’s an interesting one to watch! My very amateur understanding is that the further this pushes North, the less impact we will see from streamers in our region as these will also be pushed further North. I’ve also read, but don’t understand why, but there is likely to be a gap in ppn between the snow from the low and the streamers. Maybe someone with more knowledge can explain the reason for this...? I guess what we don’t want is the snow to push up from the South, not reach us, but push the streamers North as well! I think this illustrates to an extent what I’m trying to say...

Thanks for sharing this John, it’s a great read and gives us amateurs a few more pointers in what to look out for in the various charts over the coming days!

. Of course, I’m not saying this what WILL happen as GEM is just one model throwing out one outcome of many. However, in my mind this is the best potential period since 2010, and we’ll be very unlucky if we son’t get some decent streamers and some of us may well get very lucky with snow depths! But for now, feet firmly on the ground and lets see what the hi-res models start to show today and tomorrow and then it’ll be on to radar watching from Monday.

South Yorkshire was the prime spot in 2010, and is looking that way at the moment based on GEM, but they do tend to edge North and South. In 2010 I remember when it started Barnsley was in the direct firing line and we did well with about 9 or 10 inches. But it edged South and Sheffield/Chesterfield got the best of it. I remember my dad (who was not a cold fan) measuring 17” on the top of his bin! As other have said, it will very much come down to nowcast and radar watching but lets hope everyone in our region gets a decent share!

Overnight run from the GEM is peach showing a Humber streamer, sourced all the way from the Baltic Sea, starting on Monday morning and running for over 50 hours in broadly the same location. If this sets up as predicted by the GEM whoever gets under it is going to get copious amounts of snow!

I hope Kasim doesn’t mind, but below is a copy of his post from MOD thread. The GFS 18Z is good for a few reasons > Improved cold air in the SE > better snow ratios (1:10 at 0C but 1:15 at -1C). Wind speeds @ 15-20mph lead to high snow drift index (research topic), especially inland at altitude where theoretically 2-3ft drifts would ensue a la Chilterns, Cambridgeshire on 18z say late Sunday > Lower height core over North Sea is well defined (if anything more than 12z), leading to optimal streamer activity in the East, North East, convective parameters not quite as good as 2010 nor 2018. BUT to make up for it the loss in height volatility INCREASES longevity of streamers, producing 10-20cm widely so totals at close of play are not far off if not similar

Euro4 also now coming into range and similar to Harmonie for Saturday evening.

Our friend Harmonie, just showing snow coming into our region Saturday evening.

GEM is very similar to GFS re streamers, and in fact keeps our region in snow out to 14th Feb!

GFS shows a massive streamer setup just North of the Humber around 1800 Monday and then maintain for around 36 hours. It does look like it will waver around a bit but North Yorkshire looks to be in the direct firing line. Hoping for something similar for South Yorkshire!

String winds off the East coast bringing those showers well inland!

A bit more near term, the latest Fax chart for Saturday is looking good. A couple of convergence zones now shown to our North East where we could see streamers setup, and the front pushing up from the South East.

A long way off I know, and we have a good 4-5 days of snow showers to come first, but GEM is going for a spectacular breakdown event on Thursday. As Scott has said, the breakdown maybe being over-estimated as is often the case with these scenarios, so we might yet get a few more days of Easterlies before we get here.

ICON 18z had downgraded the snow Sat night/Sun morning, but the 0z seems to have upgraded it again and also brought it forward. If it’s correct, we should be seeing snow into the North of the region from Saturday teatime, and then more widely across the region through Saturday evening and overnight.

Great to see you back Kasim ICON really going for the band of snow Saturday night/Sunday morning.

And it’s over a wide area, but importantly taking in the whole of our region!

Precip chart for same time!

18z ICON looking good. Scattered light snow showers from the North into the region as early as late Friday night and early Saturday, and a few through the day Saturday before they get going properly off the East coast on Sunday!