SouthYorks

Harmonie gives 4-5 hours of snow, but not as good as Arpege. Slight change of direction of conversation, but has anyone compared current Radar with hi-res models?! Might not come to anything, but to my eye the ppn is much further East than any of the models predicted today. Have a look at 6z NMM, which had the ppn barely reaching the coast of Wales before heading South East. It’s already 50-100 miles East of that. Could we see the ppn edge into the South of our region to see some snow before it dives South East?

Seems to fit the Meto updated warning, and yes a definite shift South! Still nervous as Arpege seems a bit out on its own... Off to view Harmonie, not looked at her recently

Just as I post the above, the Meto upgrade the weather warning! You couldn’t make it up! A band of rain, locally heavy in places, is likely to push slowly northeast across parts of the UK. As this rain comes into contact with cold air in place, it is likely to readily turn to snow away from eastern coastal districts. 1-4 cm of snow is quite likely away from eastern coasts, with 5-10 cm possible in places, most likely across southern Scotland and above 150 m over northern England. Potential for 20 cm or more across higher parts of the northern England and Scotland. As well as snow, a period of freezing rain is possible for parts of east Wales and the north Midlands. Should this occur widespread icy stretches would form. Snow should turn back to rain from the south, lasting longest across parts of northern England and Scotland.

Yes, 6z GFS looks very good for next weekend. My concern is that yet again it’s a week away, and Tuesday/Wednesday looked at least as good last Friday but that now looks to be a bit of a lame duck away from high ground! If we have to sacrifice Tuesday for a fantastic prolonged snow event from the East starting next weekend then I’ll happily take that.

Looking at the short term outlook, for Tuesday, this has taken a downturn overnight. ICON 0z has moved to GFS prediction, limiting snow to a relatively short period in the South of the region before turning to rain. GFS is as it was yesterday. GFSP is an all rain event for nearly the whole region. ECM is similar ro ICON/GFS with approx 3-4 hours of snow in the South of the region moving North. Only Arpege has a slightly longer spell of snow, but that also eventually turn to rain. Note the Meto update is also a downgrade, with reference only to hill snow. ‘A spell of wet and windy weather moves northeast on Tuesday, with some hill snow. Drier, brighter and milder on Wednesday. Cloudy and breezy with outbreaks of rain on Thursday.’

GFS looks good for heavy snow from early hours of next Saturday for approx 12 hours. Yes its a week away, and lots will change, but nice to see we are moving in the right direction.

ICON still looking good for snow for Tuesday with approx 10-12 hours of snow across the region. GFS has a slightly shorter period of snow but still impacting a wide area before a transition to rain. Longer term outlook for the following weekend and beyond looking very positive based on 12z runs.

@bazookabob I don’t want to suddenly bring you down from euphoria, but that isn’t tomorrow night, it’s 8 days away... ECM is decent for a period of snow Tuesday but it does move it through reasonably quickly (6-8 hours) compared to the 24 hour event that was predicted yesterday. As other have said, don’t take any one run individually. Have a view on all models, take into consideration Meto view, and wait for the hi-res, because as it stands this still has chance to upgrade or downgrade. I’m sure there will be some areas that get to see a lot of settled snow but currently based on what is on view on the models today I think that will be reserved for more Northern parts of our region and high ground more across the region.

GFSP is poor for snow on Tuesday, with a mostly rain event except for highest ground in North Yorks!

I’d go for a middle ground. I think the GFS is taking the snow through a bit too quickly, but ICON maybe over stating the duration of the snow. It’ll be interesting to see what the hi-res models start to show when Tuesday comes into range tomorrow. To add to this, just looked at Arpege and that seems to be siding with the GFS...

ICON 12z still going for 14-16 hours of snow, from around 7am Tuesday before taking significant snow up to the borders and Southern Scotland. GFS brings the snow in earlier in the early hours of Tuesday but takes it through our region very quickly before a speedy transition to rain for Yorkshire.

Agreed! I didn’t understand why they issued a 3 day warning so far out, particularly when Monday never really seemed to have any significant snow in the warning area. Meto Warnings gave been poor all winter.

Liking the direction of the flow, East North East tends to be good for most of our region. Ppn chart for same time looks tasty as well!

That now seems to marry up pretty close to the ICON for the progression of the ppn, although Meto going for transition to rain earlier.

Showers continuing to feed in from the East for a while this morning, although doubtful they will be significant or amount to accumulations. ICON 6z brings snow to the very South of the region late Monday evening before stalling and the first front fizzling out. A second front then re-energises the ppn in the early hours of Tuesday morning and pushes it further North across most of our region. The front then makes slow progress North giving snow across most our region for potentially 36 hours, at various levels of intensity. During Wednesday the snow becomes confined to higher ground and North Yorkshire and less cold air encroaches from the South bring a return to rain in the South of the region.

Ppn is definitely further North than predicted by most models yesterday and although a stall South of our region still looks likely, we are defintely getting a draw from the East. Latest Radar is picking up showers coming in from off the sea into Lincolnshire so South Yorkshire may still get to see a smattering today. Midlands thread are reporting rain at lower levels with sleet/wet snow with elevation, and it seems the cold air must be digging South as they are also reporting a fall in temps and rain turning to snow in some areas. All positives to me!

I think the man band has just about reached it’s Northern extent, and I think we’ll now start to see it lose intensity and start to slip back South East. Showers look interesting and weren’t really picked up by major models although last nights NMM did show this. I don’t think we’ll get the required intensity for anything to settle even if anything falls out of the sky today.

Yep, that was my assessment as well having viewed ICON this morning. Arpege seems to be an improvement as well but snow not so intense as ICON, but longevity is better than it was on yesterdays runs. GFS, GFSP and ECM still not so good though. Plenty of time for change (in either direction)!

I think if we are to see snow Tuesday to Thursday we need an adjustment so that the ppn doesn’t push quite so far North to Scotland, as it erodes the cold in our region. At this range we’ll likely see many adjustments over next few days, so still all to play for!

GFS // is similar to ICON and better from a snow perspective than GFS. The ppn still turns to rain with what looks like a temp warm up on Wednesday before cold air returns from the North East on Thursday.

ICON 18z continuing to show snow for Tuesday although distribution and intensity is a bit different to the awesome 6z, which is only to be expected at this range. It does however then go on to turn to rain before colder air returns and what is left of the ppn turns back to snow. GFS is an improvement from 12z, and is similar to ICON although with less snow and rain sooner.

ECM gives us 6 hours of snow Tuesday but then it all goes Pete Tong and the beasterly is off! Let’s hope it comes back onboard on it’s 0z run...

I think Meto would only go to Amber at a much closer timeframe, probably Monday, and only IF the models continue to show similar rates of snow and for such a long period. And just to temper expectation at this range, GFS Op is terrible with a complete rainfest for the same period!

Met Office Weather Warning now issued for snow for Monday through to Wednesday! They must be fairly certain to issue so far in advance. Personally I think Monday is a bit early for us, but who knows!

Not to be taken as gospel at the moment, but I’m loving the ICON 6z this morning for our region. This run is showing about 18 hours of continuous snow starting early afternoon Tuesday until Wednesday morning, and with some very heavy spells!