SouthYorks

Sleet in Redbrook, Barnsley!

Sounds very much like the GEM has been showing for the last few days!

You are quite right re the difficulty to shift such a big area of high pressure. It’s been seen many times that high pressure to the East always hangs on much longer than the models, particularly the GFS, predict. Let’s hope it’s going to be the case again! My XC60 is a personal lease vehicle, so not so easy to get winter tyres arranged and to be honest I probably couldn’t justify the expense given we live on the outskirts of a town rather than rural with lots of elevation. It has Continental All Season tyres, which are supposed to be reasonable in all weathers, but clearly won’t match up to true winter tyres. It did ok in the snow in January when we had about 4 inch and everyone else was getting stuck, I got up and down hills and made my way around stationary cars and lorries without any issue! Good times!

If we get to 19 days that would be very impressive, particularly given a breakdown was predicted for this coming Thursday by the GFS only yesterday! No doubt, like you, I’ll be employing the AWD of my XC60 in the coming week as I’m sure I’ll be commissioned by the wife into transport duties for weekly supermarket shopping! Her little VW Up just doesn’t cut it!!

Not sure which Radar you are using but I was told a few years ago, and reminded this year, that the Radar colours are not an actual representation of what is happening. It’s a combination of ppn as seen by Radar and combined with input from models such as temps, dewpoints and other factors to predict where it will be rain, sleet or snow. I assume this is still the case...

Agree with this. GEM shows it heading north on Tuesday and making it up to North Yorks, before heading south again. Also worth noting GEM has a second streamer running across North Yorks Moors WSW so that would be a direct hit to Leeds, if it happens as predicted!

Just looking at temps for next week and GFS Ens Mean has us below 0c for a week! Could that be considered a cold spell!!

Yep, that is the one I picked out on the GEM run, and it’s still there! . If you run the 0z sequence through, it’s over South Yorkshire for about 24 hours, after which it heads north then later moves back south again, but it looks essentially the same streamer moving over a period of about 60 hours!!

It beggars belief that yet again the Met Office have failed to issue a weather warning for the current conditions. We have seen rain in South Yorkshire now for about 18 hours, and at times it’s been very heavy. The current Yellow Warning for today starts at 15.00 and covers the snow and ice risk tonight, nothing for the rain we have and the flooding that is already occurring across the region.

Just to quote my own post from earlier which showed the streamers across the region but particularly looking at the one directed WSW from the Humber to South Yorks/North Derbyshire, here is the snow accumulation chart for the run on its final frame. It illustrates perfectly if you get under the streamer, you’ll see plenty of snow on the ground!

Compared to Euro4 , WRF-NMM 6z has showers more widely distributed on Sunday.

Euro4 showing light snow showers around the region tomorrow, but mostly in North and West Yorkshire. As the snow edges up from the South East towards Lincolnshire during the day this tends to kills off the showers over Yorkshire in the evening and the early part of the night. In the early hours of Monday the streamers start up and currently I’d say any where in a line from the Humber heading in WSW direction is likely to get lots of showers, and maybe a few extended spells. So inland areas such a Rotherham, Sheffield and Chesterfield all look good to me based on current shower prediction. I’m not saying other areas won’t see snow, but I think South Yorkshire/North Derbyshire will be the sweet spot.

Euro4 6z going for continuous heavy rain in an arc coming up through Lincolnshire into South/West Yorkshire for much of the day. The heaviest ppn then heads south and is replaced by showers which turn increasingly wintery. Looks as though it will be snow on high ground only for much this evening and then lower ground as the showers become lighter.

Very heavy rain overnight and continuing this morning. Woken at 4.30am by sound of rain hammering on the front window, which is unusual as prevailing direction is on the back of the house. Unfortunately sound of rain was also accompanied by the sound of dripping on our bedroom ceiling. After much scrambling about in the loft this morning, I found the source and it seems the heavy rain combined with the direction of the wind overnight has found a very small tear in the felt near a lead valley. For now a bucket will have to do, then a repair is needed!! Outside continuous heavy rain, and occasionally a sleety mix, which is something of a surprise at this time as it wasn’t expected until late afternoon/early evening. Are we seeing evaporate cooling or are we seeing an early undercut? Anyone with weather stations got any recent reports on temps and dew points in the area?

Agreed! I think it’s about 4 runs in a row that GEM has shown it. It’s either going to get the plaudits or will have been shown to be consistently wrong!

Try this link, same format as ICON. 18z coming out now. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=22&mode=1&map=330

Brilliant! Just look at that reverse flow across the north of the uk coming from Scandi all the way across into the Atlantic! That is quite something to see!

Absolutely! Still waiting for their 18z, so as ICON out worth a view.

Yep, that’s the one. To see the wider view click ‘Eur. Ouest’, top right of the screen.

Yep, and what is notable is that the streamer ppn is seen over the Irish Sea and also in the Atlantic west of Ireland! That is some streamer, all the way from south of Sweden to the West Atlantic!

Although not quite as clearly well defined as GEM, but ICON 18z now defintely picking up the Baltic Sea sourced Humber Streamer.

For same time I posted above. It’s the same track but maybe not quite the same intensity. Still looks good though as intensity is shown to increase.

Interesting given GEM last 2 runs has had the source of a Humber Streamer from the Baltic Sea. See my posts this morning and this afternoon

ICON 15z is a big upgrade for tomorrow afternoon/evening, bringing the snow earlier and slightly more East of the Pennines instead of central down the spine as shown on earlier runs.

Looking a bit beyond the weekend, and the GEM is a treat again and consistent with its 6z run, with the Baltic Sea sourced Humber streamer setting up around 7am Monday and still going strong on Wednesday. Here is the link if anyone wants to run the sequence through. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=2&carte=5 WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM